Transfer betting odds

GX Blue

Well-Known Member
Joined
3 Jan 2009
Messages
4,302
Location
Tameside, Gtr Manchester.
A lot of people don’t understand odds or the market so maybe this topic will help.

So let’s start with these.
De Ligt 25/1
Maguire 11/2
You’d expect us to maybe sign one of these two. Good odds at the minute on both especially De Ligt.

João Félix is only 9/4 but £20 still returns £65.

Wan Bissaka 9/1 isn’t to bad odds and even Mbappe who apparently isn’t happy at PSG is 25/1.

With transfer market odds, sometimes to get decent value you have to strike when the irons cold as it were.

People think that when the odds go short that the bookies know something and it’s nailled on. This isn’t always the case. I feel the transfer market - odds market, is the one area they are not always 100% ahead of the game and cash can be made for us punters.

You just need to do your homework and use your head.

For instance, De Ligt.
We know we have had interest in the past, he’s only gona sign for a limited amount of clubs, we need a centre back, a few rumours that we are still intestested in him so at 25/1 you’ve gotta get on that!
For those odds to come down it takes one newspaper back page saying we are back in for him and the odds will then come right back down. Earlier this January we were odds on 8/11 for him to be his next club. That’s because of the media attention. Odds change massively on transfers so I hope some of you gamblers think ahead and take chances. This is a chance worth taking at 25/1.

In each player topic in the transfer forum you always get someone who says, oh, the odds on player x have come right in, looks like a done deal, a few days go by and player x still hasn’t signed and the odds start to drift out again. It’s all to do with the bookies covering themselves so the more media publicity about a deal the shorter the odds will become.

Also, it doesn’t have to just be City transfer odds, anyone see any good value on certain players going to other let us know in here.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/specials/football-specials
Here is a list of players and their odds to sign for clubs if anyone’s interested.
 
Also because the markets are relatively small, a small run can affect the market drastically.

A few years ago I was given a nudge by someone at the club that lvg wad going to be next city manager. A few of us had a few quid on him at large odds, within a couple of days he was odds on 1/3 at one stage. Now I luckily laid him on Betfair exchange and make a few quid.
Transfers are now one market I would never touch, the odds in no way reflect the probability of the event.
 
Steer well clear. Only a fool touches this market more than once. (cough, cough, ;-) )
Yes and I'm the biggest degenerative fool of the lot! Sanchez a few years back. Had a decent bet on him at around 3-1 because I'd heard a rumour. Within days he was somewhere in the region on 1-12 and I was feeling rather smug. Then next salute, he was 9-4.. then 4s etc etc. Anyway, I'm glad I lost a few quid because it meant my club dodged a bullet. Not entertaining this silly market any longer, I'll stick to putting big bets on City's rivals from now on. ;-)
 
Had 3/4 losses over the years on xfers, not going into those markets again.

The only ITK info I had I didn't get until too late I'd have proper cleaned up. I was on the golf course when Delph was nailed on, he then 'backed' out and I had a message on my 'silent' mobile saying it's still 100% won't name names but it involved media via a mate who is very trusted.

Got off the course & he'd already signed, the price in the intervening hours must have gone through the roof.
 
Do you think it might be easier to compare the odds in a decimal format rather than the traditional fractions? (Some posters find it hard to understand/compare fractions).
I quoted some decimal odds in the De Ligt thread a couple of days ago:
If it's of any interest I just checked Skybet to look at their transfer odds for him:
Barca 1.91
Rags 2.20
Liverpool 11.0
PSG 15.0
City 17.0
Bayern 26.0
RM 26.0

I agree about losses from the past transfer windows. We have seemed nailed on for some targets only for them to turn around at the 11th hour. I still think transfers seem a better bet/odds than many other outcomes, if you do want a bet, but like any market things can unexpectedly change.
 
Yes and I'm the biggest degenerative fool of the lot! Sanchez a few years back. Had a decent bet on him at around 3-1 because I'd heard a rumour. Within days he was somewhere in the region on 1-12 and I was feeling rather smug. Then next salute, he was 9-4.. then 4s etc etc. Anyway, I'm glad I lost a few quid because it meant my club dodged a bullet. Not entertaining this silly market any longer, I'll stick to putting big bets on City's rivals from now on. ;-)

Van Persie and Sanchez for me. Lesson well and truly learnt. Ouch !

Or is it learned ? haha.
 

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.