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Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by johnny on the spot, 17 Mar 2017.
China have had him sussed in under 100 days.
Mad Don will do exactly what Putin tells him.
This is one flash point where there are many ifs and buts. Seemingly a good deal of brinkmanship mainly on the part of North Korea. How far can they push before the Yanks send a B2 Spirit to flatten Kims nuclear plants. If they push to far and the Yanks do just that is Kim suicidal enough to trigger what would be a nightmare conflict that he would lose?
For those not familiar with the military facts this may give you an idea of the problem America and South Korea have.
North Korea's military is big and would fight with much more bravery and would be far more disciplined than the majority of tin pot opponents that the Yanks have fought in the Middle East. It is however by and large equipped with kit that would be found in a museum. Its air force still relies in the main on 1950s 60s vintage Mig21s and older. It has a small number of early mark Mig29s and Su25 ground attack aircraft. It would be facing a South Korean air force that is equipped with modern Yanks jets with the latest weaponry and it crews will all be well trained....and then there is the USAF.. It would be highly unlikley the the North would register a single air to air kill before being obliterated.
On the ground its slightly more difficult as the North may not have modern weapons but they have a lot of soldiers who can use the old stuff very well and who wont take a backward step. The terrain is a leveller too, lots of mountains and caves, making air strikes in support of ground forces difficult, also making tanks and heavy artillery difficult to move around. There would be heavy casualties for Allied ground troops going across the border.
Now here is the real big problem, Seoul is about 30 miles from the border and North Korea have alot of old weapons on that border that can lob shells onto Seoul at a rate of many thousands an hour. Many of those shells are chemical tipped, the damage that could be inflicted on Seoul before those weapons could be taken out would be as catastrophic as any nuclear strike. Naturally were the North to do this then it would be the end for them as it would almost certainly provoke the use of battlefield nuclear weapons on the part of the states and then become a war where the leadership of the DPRK would have to be removed and its military largely completely destroyed.
The odds are huge on this one Trump cannot let DPRK get even a small nuclear capability, but what would if anything make Kim back down?
Does Donald think that Kim would hit Seoul in retaliation, if not it could be that before too long he sends the B2s to take the plants down.
China I suspect may stay out of this one and take the view that it has tried to suggest to the DPRK to reign it in but been ignored. After all unlike the last Korean war China is busy making money and were it to go wading in fighting Americans in North Korea that would most likely come to an abrupt end.
Something will have to give on this one and soon, the Yanks South Korea Japan and even China were and are still hoping for some rebellion internally and have in the past attempted to unsettle things but it does seem the the regime have the military and the population well and truly nailed down so its unlikely to happen.
We should leave North Korea alone for heaven's sake. Why is it in America's interest to wage war against them? North Korea has no global influence against us (unlike Iran) and are only interested in looking after themselves. The only reason I see us being tough on NK is to help our ally South Korea. But is it really worth helping SK this much? What do we get in return? I hate the fact that we have tens of thousands of troops posted there. If there is a war or if NK does something stupid they will be the first ones to die. Why should our soldiers sacrifice for South Korea?
Also here's the reality: North Korea are going to get their nukes and there's nothing the West can do about it. The only way to stop them is to wage war against them and that is certainly out of the question. If South Korea wants war they can do it themselves.
And you know what, call me crazy but I think it would be good if North Korea got nuclear weapons. That means other countries will have to start respecting them militarily. Is it any coincidence that any country the West wages war against has no nukes? If North Korea gets nukes, rest assured there would be no war.
North Korea have already invaded south once, that's what the Korean War in the 50's was all about, NK are constantly pushing boundaries mostly to get cash from the west.
I don't doubt the second they have th ability to do it they will attack Japan. Which used to rule Korea about 100 years back. The last thing we need is for them to get nukes.
I personally believe the best way to get this sorted peacefully is to try to get China to do it for us. Can't see it happening tho.
I might be getting Poes Law'd here.
Alliances are two ways. You support your allies because your allies support you.
But onto the greater point - the US has a global empire. It's an economic rather than a territorial empire and it spans from South Korea through Japan, South America and into Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Part of the consequence is this is that they must maintain interests on many different fronts. Not only is SK a major economic market, it's also 200 miles off the coast of China who is an economic enemy.
Not only is it not out of the questions, it's a matter of time until it happens and there's nothing anybody can do to avert it. NK have no choice but to turn the wheel as it keeps them in power. The US have no choice but to match to protect SK.
A big difference here though is that for the North Koreans to win they needs thousands of artillery shells, missiles and soldiers. For SK to win the war they need one bullet and a pair of binoculars.
Well that's a new opinion. North Korea is an irrational actor who sits at the precipice of an uneasy peace between China and the US. Arming them with nuclear weapons is like giving your child a shotgun because other people have them too.
NK are not taken seriously because although they have the missiles to hit things, the reliability of them and the maintaining costs means that for most analysts they are seen as unable to afford it.
The moment that it becomes clear that they have a real threat they'll be bombed back to the Stone Age. The US tactic now in these situations is Shock n Awe. Essentially they'll flatten an entire countries infrastructure within a 2 or 3 hour range to the point where they have no ability to respond. If the US wanted to and could get China onside the war for Pyongyang would be over in about the time it took someone to read this post.
They SHOULD be put down to. The UN should flatten them if it had some sort of decent military strength but it should least allow China and the US some sort of joint operation to smash the shit out of it. Right now in North Korea there's concentration camps. Like Auschwitz and Dachau. That's happening right this very second to thousands of people in NK and there's little anyone is doing about it.
It's all and good flattening the infrastructure, but they are fanatics and we've all seen what a few cavemen with an AK can do. The terrain is fucking awful, someone already pointed out that it would be a nightmare for attackers and excellent for defence. If America got embroiled in a prolonged ground war they would lose a lot of men. It would be Vietnam all over again, and I doubt the American public has the stomach for that.
I really don't know but there are estimated to be $6 Trillion US worth of rare earth metals under the ground in N.Korea. Plus, war keeps the US Defence industry dollars flowing in the right direction.
don't panic, in other dimensions this is not happening.
be slightly happy that this shit is happening to us and not our other selves
NK is going to conduct another nuclear test within the next week according to US intelligence.
Am I good at tracking back in one of these other dimensions?