Prestwich_Blue said:
sjk2008 said:
PB - Your comment sparked some interest from me into your thoughts on the way the draw is made.
Using your logic of saying that the best teams in Pots 1&2 tend to be drawn against the worst teams in Pots 3&4, I would then presume that as a direct result of this, it would mean the worse teams in Pots 1&2 would be drawn with the best teams in Pots 3&4 and, therefore, little choice other than the middle tier teams in all 4 pots being drawn with eachother as they're the only teams left out of this equation?
Before I look closer into this proposed methodology of yours, PB, when you say "the best teams" do you mean according to co-efficiency seedings pre-draw or general opinions on how UEFA officials would rank teams (taking into account stature and performance)? In other words, Shakhtar were higher up the co-efficienct seeding than City, yet is that what you are going along with in your ideas or do you think UEFA would tag City as the "bigger fish"?
No - it's on UEFA co-efficient. You're always going to have 8 pretty strong teams in Pot 1 anyway and Madrid were the 5th ranked team in Pot 1. We were 6th in Pot 2, Ajax were 2nd in Pot 3 and Dortmund were 2nd in pot 4 I think.
The thing is though, by stretching your theory out from the top 2 teams in pots 1 & 2 meeting the bottom 2 teams in pots 3 & 4 and vice versa, to a team ranked 5, 6, 2 & 2 (as is Madrid, City, Ajax & Dortmund), at what point to you stop "stretching" your theory?
Looking at how the Pots were this year, I have ranked them both in their co-efficency rating as they were pre-draw and as according to your theory.
POT 1 POT 2 POT 3 POT 4
1.Barcelona 1. Valencia 8. Galatasaray 8. Nordsjaelland
2.Bayern Munich 2. Benfica 7. Lille 7. Montpellier
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3.Man United 3. Shakhtar 6. PSG 6. Malaga
4.Chelsea 4. Zenit 5. Spartak Moscow 5. CFR Cluj
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5.Real Madrid 5. Schalke 4. Juventus 4. Dinamo Zagreb
6.Arsenal 6. Man City 3. Anderlecht 3. BATE Borisov
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7.FC Porto 7. Braga 2. Ajax 2. Dortmund
8.AC Milan 8. Dinamo Kiev 1. Olympiakos 1. Celtic
Obviously there are instances where teams from the same nation are similarly ranked in their pots so, with Barcelona drawn, you cannot lump Valencia with them so therefore we would therefore take the next team down - Benfica.
Instances that happened in this years draw which follow your theory to an extent are:
Barcelona & Benfica (Pots 1 & 2)
Bayern Munich, Valencia & Lille (Pots 1, 2 & 3)
Man United & CFR Cluj (Pots 1 & 4)
Chelsea & Shakhtar (Pots 1 & 2)
Real Madrid & Man City (Pots 1 & 2)
Arsenal & Schalke (Pots 1 & 2)
FC Porto & Dinamo Kiev (Pots 1 & 2)
To be fair, I can go along with half of your theory, in that similar ranked teams in Pots 1 & 2 have often been drawn together (this year anyway). However, the rest of your theory falls down in that there’s no set pattern as to how the rest of the groups are drawn.
City could well have been drawn Juventus & BATE Borisov instead of Ajax & Dortmund which would represent a very similar challenge. Funnily enough, United could have been drawn with Shakhtar, PSG & Malaga, which would delight the conspiracy nuts who believe United get favourable draws.
I can’t be arsed looking into last years draw to see if there’s any ongoing pattern to half of your theory being proven correct (to an extent), however someone here might be interested in it (JMW).