Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

[mcfc1632]

Unbelievable Jeff.
Reduction in immigration was the main reason Leave won.
They were nearly rumbled when the Remainer Amber Rudd no less called out BoJo on it in a tv debate.
So Brexit was sold on a lie ( plus the 380 M a week to the NHS and some other untruths that they were told).
A lot of leave voters are going to be mightily disappointed when they realize they have been conned.
Not you of course.
It suits your agenda.
You're not bothered about reduction in immigration per se (only control), your paranoia centers around the EU as a failing institution and it's collapse ( which of course if it happens will bring the UK down with it). However this was not a reason given by Leave for Brexit during the campaign.
Lucky you.

You really do, IMO, need to find a way of living in 2017 - you will make yourself ill with all this living in the past.

If, like me, you are absolutely certain that the EU is a failing institution and that we are in the role of 'milch cow', then the need to get out is clear - the rest follows.

Yep, I find the EU to be an utterly failing model and if we stay in then we will just be continuously dragged further down as we are forced to support the federalist ideology with no influence on direction.

Once you are as certain as I am - then it is easy to focus on how to make the best of the next stages and stop living in the past.

 

[Len Rum]

You really do, IMO, need to find a way of living in 2017 - you will make yourself ill with all this living in the past.

If, like me, you are absolutely certain that the EU is a failing institution and that we are in the role of 'milch cow', then the need to get out is clear - the rest follows.

Yep, I find the EU to be an utterly failing model and if we stay in then we will just be continuously dragged further down as we are forced to support the federalist ideology with no influence on direction.

Once you are as certain as I am - then it is easy to focus on how to make the best of the next stages and stop living in the past.

Notice you made no comment on reduction in immigration being the main reason Leave won, and how that has now been rowed back on.
As I mentioned suits your agenda but there will be millions of angry leave voters out there when reality hits home.
I can understand you wanting to move on and conveniently forget the lies that were told by Leave prior to the vote.

 

[mcfc1632]

Notice you made no comment on reduction in immigration being the main reason Leave won, and how that has now been rowed back on.
As I mentioned suits your agenda but there will be millions of angry leave voters out there when reality hits home.

Oh give over.

You certainly are not in a position to suggest others have agendas. My views are made perfectly clear.

You bang on in your narrow world seeking to make cheap points due to your frustration.

I have no problem commenting on "....reduction in immigration..."

Yep it was a biggie - but if we end up having left and we, the UK population, can see that there are effective controls on immigration to ensure that it is the skills and numbers that reflect our economic need then, so long as we have actually escaped from this hegemony, I am sure that people will reconcile it.

 

[smudgedj]

Notice you made no comment on reduction in immigration being the main reason Leave won, and how that has now been rowed back on.
As I mentioned suits your agenda but there will be millions of angry leave voters out there when reality hits home.
I can understand you wanting to move on and conveniently forget the lies that were told by Leave prior to the vote.

Well it was all about control of immigration but hey let's pretend no fucker understand that eh.
Then we will we have millions voting for a different party than the Prime Ministers. In fact Labour can repeal any legislation made when the people sweep them back into power.

 

[The perfect fumble]

No way, what the boy Henry is really thinking is:
"We few ( Len Rum,the perfect fumble,Magicpole, Vic, Chippy boy).
We happy few.
We band of brothers.
For he today that joins with me on Bluemoon.
Shall be my brother."

As Henry might have said of hard Brexit....

"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our English dead."

And Donald Tusk as Richard III might reply....

"I am not in the giving vein to-day."

Now who can we get to play Falstaff.....

 

[Len Rum]

Well it was all about control of immigration but hey let's pretend no fucker understand that eh.
Then we will we have millions voting for a different party than the Prime Ministers. In fact Labour can repeal any legislation made when the people sweep them back into power.

No, it was about reduction in immigration - ' tens of thousands ' and all that is still official government policy.
Living where you do, you wouldn't understand how important it is to many voters to reduce the number of migrants.
Don't pretend that you do.

 

[Len Rum]

Oh give over.

You certainly are not in a position to suggest others have agendas. My views are made perfectly clear.

You bang on in your narrow world seeking to make cheap points due to your frustration.

I have no problem commenting on "....reduction in immigration..."

Yep it was a biggie - but if we end up having left and we, the UK population, can see that there are effective controls on immigration to ensure that it is the skills and numbers that reflect our economic need then, so long as we have actually escaped from this hegemony, I am sure that people will reconcile it.

An imaginary conversation between mcfc, metal biker (mb)and the electorate:
mcfc/mb : voters the UK is now free of the EU.
voters: that's great when will net migration come down and when will we feel the economic benefits we were promised.
mcfc/mb: err no that's not going to happen, imigration will be controlled, not reduced , it may even increase ( ha ha), and as for economic benefits forget it, you're facing 15 years of financial hardship before we reach the sunny uplands of post Brexit global Britain.
voters: hang on that's not what we voted for.
mcfc/mb: oh stop being so negative, you're still stuck in pre 23rd June times, none of that is relevant now, we are where we are and must look to the future.
voters: wtf!
mcfc/mb: yeah but what we also didn't mention was that the EU is going to implode and then we're all fcuked and and.....(quickly exit stage left).

 

[cibaman]

I have no problem commenting on "....reduction in immigration..."

Yep it was a biggie - but if we end up having left and we, the UK population, can see that there are effective controls on immigration to ensure that it is the skills and numbers that reflect our economic need then, so long as we have actually escaped from this hegemony, I am sure that people will reconcile it.

Absolutely no chance, it will all be down to the numbers.

 

[mcfc1632]

I think that anybody and everybody with half a brain cell had already picked up that Cameron's pledge to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands was just pure tosh - it did not happen when he was PM and in fact it only increased.

What is needed - and leave voters are generally, IMO, able to fully understand this, is effective policies that can apply to all migration - either from the EU or the ROW - that introduce controls on immigration.

Controls might be in such areas as requiring there to be a job offer to come to, or limit the amount of time a visa runs for, limit access to benefits etc. There are models around the world where be can draw up effective policies from to meet our needs.

Cameron's government utterly failed in their pledge - part of this was down to not being allowed to bring forward policies for control of all migration due to the freedom of movement principle and part of it was down the government incompetence.

If we end up leaving then we will be able to introduce controls

'Taking back control' in all key areas, especially borders, laws and money is what it is about. Immigration was a focal point due to the perception of the impact on all key services and infrastructure. It is likely that this can be diffused if it can be clearly evidenced that, whatever the volume, it is under control and net-beneficial.

Now I will agree that in the campaigning lots may have been exaggerated on both sides - but now we are past 2015/16 and in to the preparations for reality, the target should be to match immigration to the UK's service and economic needs.

I would be surprised if May makes any new forecasts, which would be an hostage to fortune, between now and the 2020 GE. She will want to see:

a) if we have actually left the EU
b) what Amber Rudd brings forward as the immigration model and policies
c) what the projections are for what the needs of key services and the economy are

She will, if she is sensible, want to make achieving 'required and controlled migration' her policy and avoid arbitrary numbers. If she does that then it will be self-evident that whatever the immigration flow develops into is beneficial to our nation.

I accept that Remainers can now position this as 'rowing back', - so be it, enjoy the victory. Double up on it and point out that if reality on the numbers of future immigrants coming to the UK had been fully known then it may have affected the result - all though that is not at all certain. That is still living in the 2015/16 world. I and I suspect many leave voters have moved on, so will be open to evidence that migration is becoming under control to achieve the level being 'net-beneficial'.

For me it is just devising the required strategic and long-term policies with the right sense of control and pragmatism. This is what we need in the future as we secure our own controls - for me that is what the outcome/legacy of the referendum should be all about.

 

[mcfc1632]

Absolutely no chance, it will all be down to the numbers.

No doubt the Remainers will scream from the roof tops and shout betrayal - but by then the boat will have sailed. All May can do is fix the situation in the future - she cannot go back and retrofit Cameron's silliness of the past - even if that silliness directly involved her in her role as Home Secretary.

It will take time but that is what strategic communications campaigns require.

The approach is likely to be a communications offensive to evidence that the changes to policy have reduced a significant amount of unneeded immigration and been effective in ensuring that whatever the 'numbers' it is clearly net beneficial.

Reconciliation will only occur if post-Brexit the UK is economy is successful

 

[blueinsa]

No, it was about reduction in immigration - ' tens of thousands ' and all that is still official government policy.
Living where you do, you wouldn't understand how important it is to many voters to reduce the number of migrants.
Don't pretend that you do.

So what if immigration is a major concern for millions?

Its a completely valid argument and stance to take and despite your hardest efforts, doesn't make it a racist one either.

We are weeks into a process that will take years yet you harp on constantly about immigration still happening and £350M not being ploughed into the NHS etc etc.

Its pathetic Len, especially when we haven't even fucking left yet as well you know.

40 years, yes 40 years the EU has had to get things right and they couldnt fucking do it so forgive me and others for allowing the government slightly longer than a few weeks to do so.

 

[Len Rum]

No doubt the Remainers will scream from the roof tops and shout betrayal - but by then the boat will have sailed. All May can do is fix the situation in the future - she cannot go back and retrofit Cameron's silliness of the past - even if that silliness directly involved her in her role as Home Secretary.

It will take time but that is what strategic communications campaigns require.

The approach is likely to be a communications offensive to evidence that the changes to policy have reduced a significant amount of unneeded immigration and been effective in ensuring that whatever the 'numbers' it is clearly net beneficial.

Reconciliation will only occur if post-Brexit the UK is economy is successful

'Strategic communications' ( on immigration)
Yeah right.
Lies and spin you mean.
You've been rumbled mate.
True colours and all that.

 

[Len Rum]

Meanwhile in other news Bo Jo states that unlimited immigration will continue in the transition phase.
To which voters ( still living in 2015/16 to quote mcfc) might legitimately ask - "why are you not reducing the numbers as you promised in the campaign and what's this transition phase you forgot to mention?"
When they find out that unlimited immigration will continue probably for the next five years ( 2 years Art 50 plus three year transition) all hell will break loose.
And guess where this was reported?
In none other than your fun packed Sun.
The right wing media is beginning to turn.

 

[Len Rum]

So what if immigration is a major concern for millions?

Its a completely valid argument and stance to take and despite your hardest efforts, doesn't make it a racist one either.

We are weeks into a process that will take years yet you harp on constantly about immigration still happening and £350M not being ploughed into the NHS etc etc.

Its pathetic Len, especially when we haven't even fucking left yet as well you know.

40 years, yes 40 years the EU has had to get things right and they couldnt fucking do it so forgive me and others for allowing the government slightly longer than a few weeks to do so.

Who said anything about racism?
The fact is Leave won on the basis of reduced immigration.
That is now being rowed back on big style and leaked out on a daily drip drip basis.
The Tory betrayal of the leave voters has already begun.
And the alt right wing media smell blood.

 

[blueinsa]

Who said anything about racism?
The fact is Leave won on the basis of reduced immigration.
That is now being rowed back on big style and leaked out on a daily drip drip basis.
The Tory betrayal of the leave voters has already begun.
And the alt right wing media smell blood.

The one constant from the remain campaign and supporters has and still is that concerns about and wanting to reduce immigration is due to racism.

Deny it if you want, i dont care because its true.

As for the rowing back comment. As ive said we are weeks into a process that will take years and you claiming victory because something hasn't happened immediately is as ridiculous as it is funny when you think we are still members of the EU and havent left yet.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

You'll do well to get that lot on your sandwich board, Leonard. A nice day for it though.

 

[mcfc1632]

'Strategic communications' ( on immigration)
Yeah right.
Lies and spin you mean.
You've been rumbled mate.
True colours and all that.

wtf are you on about??

You might see it as lies and spin - it might even be lies and spin if you harp on about what was said pre-23/06 - but that does not change that what I have posted is likely to be what happens

I am not trying to justify or defend anything. I am just living in the here and now and discussing the future

In fact I am just doing what this thread is billed as being about - discussing what is possibly/likely to be happening in the 2017-2019 timeframe during and following:

Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

There is after all a clue in the title of the thread.

Now had this been the previous thread discussing the result of the referendum - you would be in the correct place and timeframe if you wanted to discuss whether the result was skewed by people's misconceptions about what was really likely to happen on immigration post Brexit, messages on buses etc.

IIRC, that thread was closed down to enable the forum to discuss:

Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

There is a clue................

Why not ask the Mods to reopen the old thread for you, or start a new one yourself on whether the Remainers should feel aggrieved about the outcome of the 23/06 vote.

But, surely the importance of what will happen as a result of the:

Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

deserves a thread of its own?

 

[mcfc1632]

Who said anything about racism?
The fact is Leave won on the basis of reduced immigration.
That is now being rowed back on big style and leaked out on a daily drip drip basis.
The Tory betrayal of the leave voters has already begun.
And the alt right wing media smell blood.

Perhaps that is a form of expectation management - sounds like the sort of thing that would be included in a Communications Strategy

 

[Len Rum]

You'll do well to get that lot on your sandwich board, Leonard. A nice day for it though.

Very nice day indeed, Gaylord
Off to the match soon.
( never forgiven me about Joe Hart have you?).

 

[mcfc1632]

Now this article resonates with me:

https://capx.co/the-english-arent-jingoists-on-brexit-theyre-realists/

It should help Len and the crew because it includes:

"There is certainly a strain of Brexiteering opinion that indeed tends towards the boggle-eyed. That seems to think that all we have to do to get the EU deal of our dreams is to dress David Davis up in a Union flag waistcoat and send him over to bang on the table while a couple of gunboats loiter off the Belgian shore. That any concession to Brussels, in any form, is tantamount to an admission of national defeat.

And there is an odd parallel here with a certain strain of Remainer opinion. The British public, they argue, were duped into Brexit by unscrupulous Right-wingers who promised that leaving the EU would be pain-free and cost-free – promised, indeed, that there would be a weekly pot of £350 million at the end of the rainbow.

Now, they chuckle, we are into the actual negotiations. And won’t the voters be surprised – and outraged – when Theresa May’s impudent demands are rejected by Brussels and Britain has to accept a second-tier deal and second-tier status? At last they’ll see how foolish they were to vote for Leave, and how much they needed our guidance."

It will also inform what the subject of this thread is supposed to be about providing some interesting stats on the reality of the expectations of leave voters about leaving the EU.

Disappointingly for Fumble though, given his continuous use of versions of 'sunny uplands' in a derogatory manner towards leave voters, it concludes, based on the evidence from the stats, of said leave voters:

"These aren’t people who are expecting Brexit to be all sunshine and rainbows. And they’re not people who are going to change their minds about it at the first sign that things aren’t going well, because they’re already expecting the process to be difficult and potentially costly."

People like me and most of the leave voters I know.

Anyway, even though I have had to donate my SCs to friends - the Bakers Arms is calling for my usual pre-match warm-up routine - perhaps I could do some polling?