Virgil van Dijk
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You obviously don't understand how stats are used by professional clubs. They aren't used to create an attempt at objective player ratings, they aren't used to say, "Well done Nico, yes you cost us the game but OPTA say you attempted the most tackles so nice job".
No one at City HQ is feeding Pep the "squawka attack score" to reinforce his decision to drop Aguero.
You're mocking people for not understanding statistics and yet you seem to think Pep and co are gathered around Whoscored.com or Sqauwka when in reality they're using far far more detailed statistics then any of those companies have access too, and they're looking at far more situational statistics with much greater context then "% of headed duels won" or "number of interceptions".
People have disdain not for statistics or their use in football, but for shit statistics and attempts to use them in social media punditry.
Andrew___K
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Good post. Reading some 'stats analysts' here makes my eyes bleed, sometimes I get the feeling they don't watch games, just quote stupid stats sites. Otamendi is a brainless defender, his mere presence in starting 11 instills more fear in me than Bravo in goals. Yet some will say that 'whoscored rates him' and 'Madrid is interested' (which is rubbish, Ota is Valencia level at best). B.Silva was my dream signing this summer, my next wish is seeing Otamendi booted out and replaced by a reliable defender.That last point is very interesting because you've got it the completely the wrong way around.
Precisely the reason why many people have a "disdain for stats" is because many of those obsessives who would likely want to base every decision the club makes with regards to playing staff based on the handful of percentages they read simply don't understand them and don't know how to apply them.
Hearing things like "Otamendi was our best defender according to whoscored" and "this guy only has 76% pass accuracy so he isn't a Pep player" are painful to listen to because it's an oversimplification of what is a very complex sport.
I've moaned about the overemphasis of the importance of statistical analysis before and a big reason for that is because we have many posters who think they know enough about a player they've never seen simply by looking at his statistics on a website. It's not a super special formula which proves the worth of a player, it's a bunch of reflective figures which often have zero bearing on the future performances of the player.
For example, compare Bravo's pass accuracy at Sociedad to when he was at Barcelona. How did Barca's coaching staff know he was capable of changing his game and applying their principles to a very high standard? Because they take a hell of a lot more into consideration than just a couple of numbers. Otamendi has been a good example because there doesn't seem to be any widely published collection of statistics which would indicate just how inexplicably amateur his positioning has been in the majority of the matches he has played for us. However, I can't be arsed to go into that because he seems to be a favourite and, to be fair to the guy, I think he has been superb in nearly every game since Monaco at the Etihad.
This is precisely why analysists play a specific role within a club, rather than making the decisions by themselves; these figures are useful tools and not the single pillar with which to hold up any knowledge you think you have on the game and it's players. And you know what? The people Pep works with and the people the club hire to carry out this analsyis do actually know what they're doing and are qualified for that role. They don't just think they know what they're talking about simply because they have access to a couple of websites and therefore think that they don't have to actually watch player play because they're seeing the game for what it really is:
And it's so, so much more than that.
pavelsrnicek
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There looks to be competition with Chelsea and Liverpool. Liverpool did appear to be in the box seat on this one. I'd say Southampton will be lapping this up, nothing better than an auction on a player. It means its harder to get the player to agree and then try and push down the price which appears to be Txiki's modus operandi.
So many non-sequiturs to respond to. FML.
Firstly, pretty presumptuous of you to claim that you know what my understanding of statistics is when I haven't even mentioned anything related to it. Funny that.
Since you brought it up sunshine, I think it's fairly obvious that data is used to reinforce decisions and provide insights that aren't obvious to the eye, rather than be the sole basis on which decisions are made with regards to a player. That is pretty much how data is used in EVERY industry with the advent of Big Data and advances in Machine Learning. So save your face before you embarrass yourself by attempting to censure my understanding of something which you might think is oh-so-spooky-and-mysterious that most can't know.
Moreover, it's hilarious you think the companies that provide analytical services use 'far far' more complicated metrics, presumably just because you've no idea what the hell they do. WhoScored uses data from Opta, the leading data analytics company on football statistics, which also happens to sell its data to many of the other companies whose services City elicit.
The original post I made was for people who seem to be claiming the use of statistics is nonsense in totality. Nothing was mentioned about the validity of its use in relation to social punditry.
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blueinsa
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For a new member on here you seem to have no issue with being incredibly confrontational right from the off?
Put in another way mate, just because Otamendi's handful of brain-dead actions in certain games leaves such strong impressions on the fans, doesn't negate the fact that he's done other things over the full 90-minutes which fans don't pay attention to and which might be good.
That's one of the crucial reasons why clubs pay top dollar to hire stats people: to help find out the good/bad things players did aside from the ones which are obvious or leave an emotionally charged impression (either brain-dead actions or inspiring ones).
mosssideblue
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you clearly dont go to matches to come up with that
Neville Kneville
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It's used on here mainly to try and win arguments & it's mostly utter garbage because the stats used are not detailed enough & circumstances almost never taken into consideration.
Otamendi is a great example because pretty much every ex pro who has watched a City game has at some point singled him out as not being good enough, yet he almost always has decent stats. The stats which show his flaws will be far too complex are not used on the dumbed down versions available to the general public.
And even the complex stats will only be used by soneone like Guardiola as a tool to backup his own impression of a player, gained from actually watching him play.
Neville Kneville
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If we genuinely are trying to sign VVD, I would like to know which person at the club was responsible for ignoring him when he left Celtic, seeing as it appears the club will almost certainly have been scouting him at that time.
I recon I can fucking guess mind you.
I recon I can fucking guess mind you.
I understand through our conversation yesterday that you'll have a specific bias against me, but, I've never responded with joy to anybody either throwing shade at me or being presumptuous about statements that I haven't even made and using it to argue against me.
Father Paul
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He is not a great defender but he is a very good defender full stop.
Those who want him out the door should reflect upon one very important law of football relating to defending. Defenders often take a considerable amount of time to bed in to a new environment especially when this involves playing in a very different type of league. Otto has been gaining very valuable experience since his arrival and I think that is starting to be translated into better performances on the field. Defensive systems require an element of stability and to farm Otto out and bring in a replacement would be a very dangerous ploy unless the replacement was bone fide world class and that is hard to find.
The discussion regarding whether we need an additional CB is perfectly valid particularly given the tendency for Vinny to break down at crucial times. On balance I think it would be wise to bring in another body but it might be prudent to allocate a place to a tried and tested veteran rather than spending big money ala Mangala on somebody who is not absolute top quality.
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blueinsa
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.....or im just asking you in a nice friendly way to calm things down a touch and stay on the right side of our code of conduct, something every poster has to do.
Andrew___K
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Fair point, I was pointing to overreliance on stats by some of us fans, not pro analysts. Stats used in a right context is a powerful tool, no doubt.
Neville Kneville
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If Otamendi played all season with only an occasional moment of stupidity or positional catastrophe, he would be a perfectly acceptable player for the squad. He has improved recently.
The problem we have at City, is that we have 3 cbs, who are all doing it & we can't trust any of them not to. Stones, we have invested in. Kolarov is a so called left back & has shooting etc 'ability' but he & Otamendi must be on thin ice, if the right players become available.
vonkeynotvenky
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Scary amounts of money involved for a player who will probably end up a squad player, where do the press get these figures from?
rollingnakedinmoney
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And this one also says they're about to sign Nelson Semedo for 50m€
http://www.zerozero.pt/news.php?id=197457
It seems like we're putting all our money on Walker.
lee_wsm
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Looks like possible end to that then if Barca have found some spending money
01cravend
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Stats are useful for cutting out the bias and ignorance that many spout, Otamendi misses a tackle and suddenly he's had a shit overall game is a good example on here . You shouldn't use stats as a definitive analysis of a player but to compliment your opinion of them. I think this about a player and here is some evidence to support that.
The problems arise when stats are used without context, "Bravo was shit because 1 shot on target against us, 1 goal conceded" it doesn't say how savable the shot was so on it's own should be taken with a pinch of salt.
The problems arise when stats are used without context, "Bravo was shit because 1 shot on target against us, 1 goal conceded" it doesn't say how savable the shot was so on it's own should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Shaelumstash
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That last point is very interesting because you've got it the completely the wrong way around.
Precisely the reason why many people have a "disdain for stats" is because many of those obsessives who would likely want to base every decision the club makes with regards to playing staff based on the handful of percentages they read simply don't understand them and don't know how to apply them.
Hearing things like "Otamendi was our best defender according to whoscored" and "this guy only has 76% pass accuracy so he isn't a Pep player" are painful to listen to because it's an oversimplification of what is a very complex sport.
I've moaned about the overemphasis of the importance of statistical analysis before and a big reason for that is because we have many posters who think they know enough about a player they've never seen simply by looking at his statistics on a website. It's not a super special formula which proves the worth of a player, it's a bunch of reflective figures which often have zero bearing on the future performances of the player.
For example, compare Bravo's pass accuracy at Sociedad to when he was at Barcelona. How did Barca's coaching staff know he was capable of changing his game and applying their principles to a very high standard? Because they take a hell of a lot more into consideration than just a couple of numbers. Otamendi has been a good example because there doesn't seem to be any widely published collection of statistics which would indicate just how inexplicably amateur his positioning has been in the majority of the matches he has played for us. However, I can't be arsed to go into that because he seems to be a favourite and, to be fair to the guy, I think he has been superb in nearly every game since Monaco at the Etihad.
This is precisely why analysists play a specific role within a club, rather than making the decisions by themselves; these figures are useful tools and not the single pillar with which to hold up any knowledge you think you have on the game and it's players. And you know what? The people Pep works with and the people the club hire to carry out this analsyis do actually know what they're doing and are qualified for that role. They don't just think they know what they're talking about simply because they have access to a couple of websites and therefore think that they don't have to actually watch player play because they're seeing the game for what it really is:
And it's so, so much more than that.
Great post.
Pass completion stats are perhaps the most misleading of all. Fernando has a much better pass completion than Kevin De Bruyne. But who's the better passer? You'd only know that by watching them.
Or say "tackles won", the best defenders in the world don't make many tackles because they read the game and have exceptional positioning, there is no statistic for that.
There's a reason 99% of top football manager's and DoF are former players and not data analysts. They are experts at analysing player's technique and intelligence, which the best data analyst in the world will never be able to do.
I can't ever see a day where Txiki and Pep are replaced by Neil and Colin from KPMG because they've got a better grasp of the statistics.
The statistics are supplementary to expert football analysis. Our data analysts are probably on 50k a year while Guardiola is on 20m a year. That's because Guardiola is an expert in his field. He's the brain surgeon to the data analysts hospital porter. Both are needed to make the whole think work, of course, but the expert is far more important.
Stats are very useful for fitness analysis and in certain aspects of analysing opponents propensity to play long or whatever. But stats role in recruitment will always be supplementary to expert analysis. City will never buy a player based on stats alone. Certain stats may raise flags on certain players, but we'll never buy anyone without them being watched extensively by someone with an expert footballing eye.
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