General Election June 8th

Who will you vote for at the General Election?

  • Conservatives

    Votes: 189 28.8%
  • Labour

    Votes: 366 55.8%
  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 37 5.6%
  • SNP

    Votes: 8 1.2%
  • UKIP

    Votes: 23 3.5%
  • Other

    Votes: 33 5.0%

  • Total voters
    656
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Another 9 seat shift to Labour in latest YouGov poll. Keep going (or disappearing) Theresa, you're having a blinder.
Don't get too excited mate.
On a simple average,current polls are about 8% average lead for Tories, add on say an extra 3% for polls always understating Tory lead and an11% lead translates into a 100+ majority.
And if you look particularly at the crucial marginals rather than the overall vote, the kippers are turning in their droves to the Tories.
This all points to a big majority for the Tories.
However if Labour can get it's act together and unite behind it's manifesto maybe with a new populist leader, then when either the crisis of Brexit and / or the inevitable betrayal of UKIP converts/RWNJ Tories/ right wing press occurs Labour could be in a good position to pick up the pieces.
 
Don't get too excited mate.
On a simple average,current polls are about 8% average lead for Tories, add on say an extra 3% for polls always understating Tory lead and an11% lead translates into a 100+ majority.
And if you look particularly at the crucial marginals rather than the overall vote, the kippers are turning in their droves to the Tories.
This all points to a big majority for the Tories.
However if Labour can get it's act together and unite behind it's manifesto maybe with a new populist leader, then when either the crisis of Brexit and / or the inevitable betrayal of UKIP converts/RWNJ Tories/ right wing press occurs Labour could be in a good position to pick up the pieces.

Yeah mate, still, just been looking at first view pages of this thread and the change is pretty dramatic.
 
What a total dick. If indeed the rich have all their money in offshore banks accounts in the Bahamas, how the fuck will increasing the tax rate, encourage them to bring it back to the UK. Tool.

It defies belief that anyone could be so utterly thick. How does he think it got into the offshore accounts, if indeed it's there. If it was money earned in this country and sent abroad to avoid tax, these people would be in jail. If it was earned abroad, it's got fuck all to do with the UK and they have no way of touching it. He's just a lefty propaganda merchant who hasn't got the brains to even make a convincing argument.

You need to have a least a smattering of knowledge on a topic to comment on it.
 
Yeah mate, still, just been looking at first view pages of this thread and the change is pretty dramatic.

Len is right though, appalling as May is she will almost certainly be returned next Thursday with a greater number of Tory seats than she presently has. Corbyn will survive, his reputation enhanced, the political centre ground will have shifted to the left just as the government moves to the right. Brexit will be a disaster, it was always going to be thus, but now May has no wriggle room, we're headed for the worst possible outcome.

In the labour party things will start to look up. The Blairites will be extinguished by this election. Oh, there'll still be lots of them, but after two leadership elections they've spectacularly lost and this election campaign in which they've done nothing for the wider party or the leader, they're finished, kaput.

The left will consolidate its power in the party at all levels and the job of finding a more telegenic leader will start.
 
Len is right though, appalling as May is she will almost certainly be returned next Thursday with a greater number of Tory seats than she presently has. Corbyn will survive, his reputation enhanced, the political centre ground will have shifted to the left just as the government moves to the right. Brexit will be a disaster, it was always going to be thus, but now May has no wriggle room, we're headed for the worst possible outcome.

In the labour party things will start to look up. The Blairites will be extinguished by this election. Oh, there'll still be lots of them, but after two leadership elections they've spectacularly lost and this election campaign in which they've done nothing for the wider party or the leader, they're finished, kaput.

The left will consolidate its power in the party at all levels and the job of finding a more telegenic leader will start.
So it's the political equivalent of Liverpool fans then.

Next year is your year.
 
So it's the political equivalent of Liverpool fans then.

Next year is your year.

No, you're welcome to your pyrrhic victory, this was a match we were never going to win. But then Labour didn't call it.

You and I don't agree on much, but you're not an idiot. Will May be in a better situation post this election than she was before, In her party, in the country and in her negotiations with the EU?

If the answer is no to all three and it is, what kind of victory is it? Given that Labour were never in a position to win it in the first place.
 
No, you're welcome to your pyrrhic victory, this was a match we were never going to win. But then Labour didn't call it.

You and I don't agree on much, but you're not an idiot. Will May be in a better situation post this election than she was before, In her party, in the country and in her negotiations with the EU?

If the answer is no to all three and it is, what kind of victory is it? Given that Labour were never in a position to win it in the first place.
It's a victory if the Tories increase their majority and start the process of finding a successor for May. She's been awful.

Plus I don't want a huge huge majority for the Tories as no huge majority is healthy in British politics.
 
A group of british volunteers fighting with the kurds against Isis have come out in support of jezza

british-fighters-syria-corbyn-0.jpg


https://www.indy100.com/article/bri...remy-corbyn-vote-labour-election-2017-7771246

And yes they are left leaning and fighting with a socialist militia, but think the people out there have a better handle on what's going on than me, and agree that cutting off the terrorist, source of funding is a sensible plan
 
I'm not sure he will appreciate that support.

Why because our government have the Kurds down as terrorists too on official list so they don't piss off turkey.

It's possibly not helpful but I believe many don't see the kurdish independance movement negatively, especially as they have been the main force fighting Isis, also I agree with an independant Kurdsitan being established .
 
Well over 200 more votes on this thread than our Player of the Season vote. Now I know we tolerate a few aliens in here but 200+?
Must be the Russians.
 
Why because our government have the Kurds down as terrorists too on official list so they don't piss off turkey.

It's possibly not helpful but I believe many don't see the kurdish independance movement negatively, especially as they have been the main force fighting Isis, also I agree with an independant Kurdsitan being established .
No. Because he doesn't believe in violence and they are volunteers.
 
No. Because he doesn't believe in violence and they are volunteers.

Oh right, I actually thought the YPG being classed as terrorist by turkey and some nationa would be what people would pick up on. think the main point is that these volunteers are agreeing with his stance that cutting off the supply of arms and money to the jihadist factions will help fight them more effectively than bombing raids.
 
They still haven't said at what level of means you'd lose the allowance. And I don't think they're promising to retain free eye tests or the bus pass for pensioners. Let the pensioner buyer beware.



Field Marshall Carver asked at the height of the Cold War what the bloody hell Trident was for. It's certainly no bloody use for deterring ISIS. Spend some of the Trident money on more surveillance of potential terror plots and that would make us safer.

Another slogan from those days. Why don't we fund schools and hospitals properly out of tax and hold jumble sales to buy nuclear weapons?

And whoever posted that the Cuban missile crisis demonstrated that deterrence worked - that was all about the Americans trying to get round MAD by installing tactical weapons in Turkey that (in their truly mad world) would allow nukes to be used without triggering Armageddon. "Victory" would mean as few as 20 million dead Americans.

Frankly with the threats we now face, it's just bizarre to be rehearsing these Cold War arguments as if they were still at all relevant. But even on those bygone terms Corbyn's stance is just a modern take on the problem then - Russia could still invade western Europe with conventional weapons (why would they?) and no-one would push the button "because of the self-deterrence inherent in such a strategic context". Any leader can say they'd annihilate the planet but in reality they wouldn't.

The up to date question to put to May would be "if Russia invades EstonIa would you authorise a first strike against Moscow?" Or even "if North Korea invades S Korea would you defend Seoul by nuking Pyongyang and hope for Seoul's sake that the wind is not blowing north-south?"

It is just sheer madness to talk about using nuclear weapons as if there were any circumstance in which it would make sense. Hence the "self-deterrence".

Clearly you have not noticed that the Russian Strategic Battle plan uses Nukes as part of standard battle tactics - not as a last resort. Should they decide it is right to attack the Baltic states they will attack, gain ground and use Nukes prior to going to the negotiating table.

You clearly also haven't noticed Russia ramping up defence spending over the last 7 years by about 18% per anum (and yes I know hey cut it by 25% in March but that's because the weapons programmes that were being financed have completed - the Amur-class attack submarine, P-800 Ship to ship missile, Type 53-65 wake homing Torpedo, The new highly automated T-14 main battle tank and major armour upgrades to the 1- year old T-90 battle tank, the new Caliber ground to air missile system and major improvements to its air capability with the Su-35s fighter bomber and the major development costs of the T-50 stealth fighter paid for).

During this time NATO has sat on its arse and just watched with most of NATO members have not spent enough to provide a bare minimum capability to counter the growth of Russian capability.

As such It is not a ridiculous proposition to be concerned about the defence of this country against such a threat or to worry that a major plank of the countries secure defence over 65 years could be jeopardised.
 
In my younger days I was wholly in favour of a nuclear deterrent because the geo-political situation was very different back then. The USA and the Soviet Union were sworn enemies and China was a completely unknown quantity. France & the UK wanted a seat at the top table and that's the only reason they developed nuclear weapons. However our efforts to develop an effective delivery capability were predictably dire so Macmillan had to go cap in hand to Kennedy to beg for Polaris after the USA cancelled Skybolt. In those dangerous Cold War days, the superpowers couldn't engage each other directly but they fought proxy wars in Africa, the Middle East and South East Asia.

The world today however is a very different place and the threat has changed. There is no Iron Curtain and China plays a full part in the global political economy. As we've seen only too recently, the threat to global security arises from religious ideologies not millions of pounds worth of hardware. Cyber warfare can cause as much infrastructure damage as a nuclear weapon without a single unit of radiation being generated. Also, there is now a danger that nuclear weapons could even fall into the hands of organisation like ISIS or Al Qaeda, who are non-state actors. What use would our warheads have been if Salman Abedi had detonated a tactical nuclear device a week last Monday? The answer is none.

And looking back at past conflicts, would Ukraine have used nuclear weapons to respond to the Russian annexation of Crimea and the disguised encroachment into parts of Eastern Ukraine? No it wouldn't. Did the USA use nuclear weapons on Iraq when it invaded Kuwait? No it didn't. The one conflict I can think of since the Cuban missile crisis that could easily have led to the use of nuclear weapons was the Arab-Israeli war of 1973. There was a genuine existential threat to Israel in the early part of that conflict, particularly on the Northern front when an overwhelmingly numerically superior Syrian force broke through the forward Israeli line on the Golan Heights. Israel had nuclear weapons and the capability to deliver them but it didn't use them. Had their hastily improvised second line of defence not held back the Syrians then it's possible they might have used them but would the Russians have responded in kind? I highly doubt it.

So there is, in my opinion anyway, no reason for us to have nuclear weapons and the fewer there are in the world, the better and safer it will be.

PB, as usual a well thought out and reasoned piece.
I disagree with it due to the build up of Russian forces over the last 10 tears and their asymmetric warfare policy that WIlL use Nukes in a limited fashion BEFORE going to the negotiating table and with Corbyn being our leader at that point I would have grave worries about our future.
 
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