Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

I am very certain of what I predict and therefore I am very certain that (a meaningful) Brexit will now not happen.

The EU were never going to offer a deal on any terms other than their most advantageous terms - unless they were faced with a situation of loss of access to our funding and other negative (for the EU) outcomes. They can now dictate terms without any fear of being unsuccessful - it is over.

There can only ever be a meaningful Brexit if we had a version of a walk-away option - that can only happen now if there was another GE or referendum explicitly focussed on a Brexit deal.

With the youth vote now galvanised that is not going to happen. The only way it cold be successful would be if the EU could be demonised in some way as screwing the UK over and the UK public take massive affront - that is not going to happen. The EU are not that stupid and their acolytes in Westminster will ensure that it is the UK Brexit position that is demonised as 'extreme'.

No - it is done - May had it her grasp and either her or her advisors got greedy with that stupid manifesto.

She has single-handedly fucked it up - simple as

I have said throughout the last year how I see things from a negotiations POV. I can now do that objectively in this position of failure - it is done. In the past I have called for Remainers to 'get over it'. The Brexiteers now have to do that.

you are saying it as if it's certain/fact. you cannot predict that. we could quite easily leave the single market or retain a lot of the benefits of it.

 

[Chippy_boy]

you are saying it as if it's certain/fact. you cannot predict that. we could quite easily leave the single market or retain a lot of the benefits of it.

I fail to see how the EU can give us anything like the benefits we have now, whilst allowing us to cherry pick and drop the bits we don't want; free movement, being bound by EU law, paying a shit load of money to them etc. How can they possibly agree to that without undermining the whole basis for any country to want EU membership? I just cannot see it.

The options are imo, walk away and WTO rules. Economic disaster.
Negotiate tariff-free access by accepting free movement and other no-nos. Economic turmoil and political disaster.
Abandon Brexit altogether. Political disaster of epic proportions.

Difficult to see a positive outcome imo.

 

[cibaman]

Her first PMQ's might make the difference as to how quickly she goes. If she's clearly lost authority and Corbyn clearly has the support of his backbenchers she'll be out pronto.

 

[adrianr]

I fail to see how the EU can give us anything like the benefits we have now, whilst allowing us to cherry pick and drop the bits we don't want; free movement, being bound by EU law, paying a shit load of money to them etc. How can they possibly agree to that without undermining the whole basis for any country to want EU membership? I just cannot see it.

The options are imo, walk away and WTO rules. Economic disaster.
Negotiate tariff-free access by accepting free movement and other no-nos. Economic turmoil and political disaster.
Abandon Brexit altogether. Political disaster of epic proportions.

Difficult to see a positive outcome imo.

It's looking a bit bloody dicey that's for sure. I won't pretend to know what the best course of action is given I never wanted us to leave in the first place, but I think it's becoming increasingly clear that the referendum set in motion a political shift in this country, one which in tandem with negotiating our withdrawal from Europe will leave us all worse off for the foreseeable future. I just hope that rather than accepting the narrative put forth by the likes of Farage, that Britain voted for a hard Brexit, and fucking ourselves under the WTO, that we get a say on the eventual terms of this deal. I mean fuck it, what's another referendum? We're just getting good at this turning out to vote lark.

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

i think this is why a lot of ukip votes when to labour. they ran on ending freedom of movement i.e. coming out of the single market

 

[SpiritofBurnden]

Frankie Boyle on how Brexit might affect those currently living abroad:

'Wait until you see the skill set that they're bringing back to Britain... asking for the bill in Spanish and armed robbery.'

 

[vonkeynotvenky]

i think this is why a lot of ukip votes when to labour. they ran on ending freedom of movement i.e. coming out of the single market

The electorate particularity the ukip floating voters probably did revert to voting Labour because of Labours Brexit promises, the political commentators however are revving up the stay in the single market and carry on free movement engine to overdrive. Labour will gain more market share by cementing that view with objectives in case we have another GE.

 

[The perfect fumble]

I am very certain of what I predict and therefore I am very certain that (a meaningful) Brexit will now not happen.

The EU were never going to offer a deal on any terms other than their most advantageous terms - unless they were faced with a situation of loss of access to our funding and other negative (for the EU) outcomes. They can now dictate terms without any fear of being unsuccessful - it is over.

There can only ever be a meaningful Brexit if we had a version of a walk-away option - that can only happen now if there was another GE or referendum explicitly focussed on a Brexit deal.

With the youth vote now galvanised that is not going to happen. The only way it cold be successful would be if the EU could be demonised in some way as screwing the UK over and the UK public take massive affront - that is not going to happen. The EU are not that stupid and their acolytes in Westminster will ensure that it is the UK Brexit position that is demonised as 'extreme'.

No - it is done - May had it her grasp and either her or her advisors got greedy with that stupid manifesto.

She has single-handedly fucked it up - simple as

I have said throughout the last year how I see things from a negotiations POV. I can now do that objectively in this position of failure - it is done. In the past I have called for Remainers to 'get over it'. The Brexiteers now have to do that.

I told you this was never technical, it is and always has been first and foremost political. Once the political jockeying was sorted out, the details follow (and we are talking years of detail).

UK negotiators in hermetically sealed rooms staring down their EU opponents with their hard Brexit card tucked up their sleeve was a silly fantasy, and now, even you recognise it.

 

[Itsaar]

Makes me lol, talk of May going, because she has lost the party who voted her in, by Corbyn who never had the support of the party and IS not PM and Labour will have to wait another 5 years with that clown in charge.

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

The electorate particularity the ukip floating voters probably did revert to voting Labour because of Labours Brexit promises, the political commentators however are revving up the stay in the single market and carry on free movement engine to overdrive. Labour will gain more market share by cementing that view with objectives in case we have another GE.

yep both labour and conservatives ran on a pro brexit manifesto and ending freedom of movement. over 80% of the population voted for that. I was watching newsnight before and other news programmes and I keep seeing lib dems and remainers like gina miller saying this election proves voters dont want a hard brexit, with the media are revving it up as you say. it doesnt prove that at all, people voted on all sorts of other issues. if labour backtrack they risk losing there core working class vote who predominantly voted leave. if we stay in the single market Imo we are still in the eu.

 

[mcfc1632]

you are saying it as if it's certain/fact. you cannot predict that. we could quite easily leave the single market or retain a lot of the benefits of it.

I am saying that I am certain - which I am

I do believe that I can predict that - with a high degree of certainty

 

[cibaman]

yep both labour and conservatives ran on a pro brexit manifesto and ending freedom of movement. over 80% of the population voted for that. I was watching newsnight before and other news programmes and I keep seeing lib dems and remainers like gina miller saying this election proves voters dont want a hard brexit, with the media are revving it up as you say. it doesnt prove that at all, people voted on all sorts of other issues. if labour backtrack they risk losing there core working class vote who predominantly voted leave. if we stay in the single market Imo we are still in the eu.

The election result doesn't prove that voters don't want a hard brexit, just as the referendum result didn't prove that they did.

 

[mcfc1632]

I told you this was never technical, it is and always has been first and foremost political. Once the political jockeying was sorted out, the details follow (and we are talking years of detail).

UK negotiators in hermetically sealed rooms staring down their EU opponents with their hard Brexit card tucked up their sleeve was a silly fantasy, and now, even you recognise it.

Frankly, I do not believe that anything that you have said on this subject has ever made any sense at all. It has, IMO, just been a series of ramblings, seemingly based on your narrow prejudices and what appears to be a self-serving need to be a smartarse.

In putting my views forward, I have always sought to simply rely on my many years of experience negotiating on behalf of the government.

I am doing that now and therefore predict with a high level of certainty that (a meaningful) Brexit is now an impossibility - the fact that you make this post, for me, just reinforces my view of you previous offerings.

Oh hum - 12 months ago I was not expecting to have the opportunity in my lifetime to see the UK leave the EU and I was still able to live a full and happy life - I will just have to go back to getting on with that.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

In putting my views forward, I have always sought to simply rely on the many years of experience negotiating on behalf of the government.

Why haven't you mentioned this previously?

 

[mcfc1632]

Why haven't you mentioned this previously?

I am pretty sure that I have.

In the same way that if someone on the Kodi thread tells me that they have many years of technical experience and suggests to me how to set up my box, I find that to be helpful and I listen, or if Tolmie, with (I think) many years of experience in journalism comments on the transfer rumours I give credence to what he says, in doing so, I have sought to provide some underpinning of why I believe that I have relevant experience to speak quote authoritatively on the subject of negotiations.

It is forum, it is about opinions, everyone is free to spout their own.

But, on any given subject, if we have someone that has direct relevant experience then I think that it is useful to know that - many, I suggest, spout as if they are knowledgeable and others just float about on the side and make snide comments to appear clever - it is all a question of what floats your boat I guess

For me, Brexit was a very important subject - nothing less than a once-only opportunity to break free from what I see as the EU hegemony. I had sought to discuss that in a serious way on this forum. As it happened that opportunity never materialised as, IMO, attempts at proper discussion on the various threads were drowned out by the weight of pointless and often childish posts and casual snide comments

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

I am pretty sure that I have.

In the same way that if someone on the Kodi thread tells me that they have many years of technical experience suggests to me how to set up my box, I find that to be helpful and I listen, or if Tolmie, with (I think) many years of experience in journalism comments on the transfer rumours I give credence to what he says, in doing so, I have sought to provide some underpinning of why I believe that I have relevant experience to speak quote authoritatively on the subject of negotiations.

It is forum, it is about opinions, everyone is free to spout their own.

But, on any given subject, if we have someone that has direct relevant experience then I think that it is useful to know that - many, I suggest, spout as if they are knowledgeable and others just float about on the side and make snide comments to appear clever - it is all a question of what floats your boat I guess

For me, Brexit was a very important subject - nothing less than a once-only opportunity to break free from what I see as the EU hegemony. I had sought to discuss that in a serious way on this forum. As it happened that opportunity never materialised as, IMO, attempts at proper discussion on the various threads were drowned out by the weight of pointless and often childish posts and casual snide comments

I don't make snide comments to appear clever.

 

[Len Rum]

I am very certain of what I predict and therefore I am very certain that (a meaningful) Brexit will now not happen.

The EU were never going to offer a deal on any terms other than their most advantageous terms - unless they were faced with a situation of loss of access to our funding and other negative (for the EU) outcomes. They can now dictate terms without any fear of being unsuccessful - it is over.

There can only ever be a meaningful Brexit if we had a version of a walk-away option - that can only happen now if there was another GE or referendum explicitly focussed on a Brexit deal.

With the youth vote now galvanised that is not going to happen. The only way it cold be successful would be if the EU could be demonised in some way as screwing the UK over and the UK public take massive affront - that is not going to happen. The EU are not that stupid and their acolytes in Westminster will ensure that it is the UK Brexit position that is demonised as 'extreme'.

No - it is done - May had it her grasp and either her or her advisors got greedy with that stupid manifesto.

She has single-handedly fucked it up - simple as

I have said throughout the last year how I see things from a negotiations POV. I can now do that objectively in this position of failure - it is done. In the past I have called for Remainers to 'get over it'. The Brexiteers now have to do that.

There ain't no Brexit gonna come from the sky
Now that I found out, I know I can cry

I, I found out
I, I found out

 

[Tim of the Oak]

I am pretty sure that I have.

In the same way that if someone on the Kodi thread tells me that they have many years of technical experience suggests to me how to set up my box, I find that to be helpful and I listen, or if Tolmie, with (I think) many years of experience in journalism comments on the transfer rumours I give credence to what he says, in doing so, I have sought to provide some underpinning of why I believe that I have relevant experience to speak quote authoritatively on the subject of negotiations.

It is forum, it is about opinions, everyone is free to spout their own.

But, on any given subject, if we have someone that has direct relevant experience then I think that it is useful to know that - many, I suggest, spout as if they are knowledgeable and others just float about on the side and make snide comments to appear clever - it is all a question of what floats your boat I guess

For me, Brexit was a very important subject - nothing less than a once-only opportunity to break free from what I see as the EU hegemony. I had sought to discuss that in a serious way on this forum. As it happened that opportunity never materialised as, IMO, attempts at proper discussion on the various threads were drowned out by the weight of pointless and often childish posts and casual snide comments

Negotiating experience alone doesn't count for a great deal. I am more impressed with evidence of successful outcomes and
Lessons learnt being put into action.

I am a bit surprised about your point alleging people who were against Brexit have been allowed to derail the debate on here. I have not written on this thread for months because it was a pretty negative experience all round. Also, the referendum happened a year or so ago. Btw,it was very easy to get a ban on here for being in favour of EU membership.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Frankly, I do not believe that anything that you have said on this subject has ever made any sense at all. It has, IMO, just been a series of ramblings, seemingly based on your narrow prejudices and what appears to be a self-serving need to be a smartarse.

In putting my views forward, I have always sought to simply rely on my many years of experience negotiating on behalf of the government.

I am doing that now and therefore predict with a high level of certainty that (a meaningful) Brexit is now an impossibility - the fact that you make this post, for me, just reinforces my view of you previous offerings.

Oh hum - 12 months ago I was not expecting to have the opportunity in my lifetime to see the UK leave the EU and I was still able to live a full and happy life - I will just have to go back to getting on with that.

You're a funny fella, you come across as either a complete fraud, a troll, a clever off the shelf Mr Pompous, or one of those blokes who's managed to acquire experience but little wisdom.

Either way, after oceans of nonsense posted by you, we have ended up exactly where Len Rum and I predicted we'd be. If you are sincere in your desire to up stumps and head for the pavilion (unlikely), or in your case golf clubs to the club house bar (where I'm sure you'll find a receptive audience to bore), you will, simply by your absence, raise the quality of debate enormously and for that we will be immensely grateful.

 

[vonkeynotvenky]

The election result doesn't prove that voters don't want a hard brexit, just as the referendum result didn't prove that they did.

Leaving the EU is what it is, remainers coined the term hard brexit to give themselves wiggle room. May and Corbyn both said that brexit means the end of free movement and that by default means leaving the single market. Unless the EU give us a special deal which nobody can envisage can they?