Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

[hilts]

Do you live in a cave?

Have you actually been following anything since the referendum?

Do you honestly think things are going well?

Do you miss Peter Swales?

I would have thought Swales would have been a hero of yours, couldn't stop spending money on crap, running up debt and sending us to the brink of bankruptcy.

 

[The perfect fumble]

“We can’t be blackmailed into paying a price on the first part,” Liam Fox the international trade secretary said on a visit to Japan

He continued: “We think we should begin discussions on the final settlement because that’s good for business, and it’s good for the prosperity both of the British people and of the rest of the people of the European Union.”

Speaking later to Sky News, Fox said he was concerned the Brexit talks were “stuck” on the initial issues.

“I think there is frustration that we have not been able to get on that longer-term issue, that we’re stuck on this separation issue, and we’re not able to get on to the issues that will matter in the longer term for the future prosperity of the UK and the people of Europe.

“And I had representations from businesses from across Europe – from Germany, from Spain – to say: ‘Can we put more pressure on the commission to try and get us a better idea of what that final picture will look like because we need to maintain an open and liberal trading environment in Europe?’”
...........................

We need to maintain an open and liberal trading environment in Europe do we! And why is this under threat I wonder? I've an idea for you Fox, you Europhobic arse wipe, how about telling Europe we're not fucking off and all these problems go away.

 

[The perfect fumble]

I would have thought Swales would have been a hero of yours, couldn't stop spending money on crap, running up debt and sending us to the brink of bankruptcy.

I'd have thought he'd be your go to man, he lived in a dream, was totally inept and kept believing his fantasy of impending greatness when all evidence was to the contrary.

 

[The perfect fumble]

I can't keep up with all this Brexit good news....

Pound-euro exchange rate: Sterling suffers worst performance in 11 months as investors shun currency due to Brexit

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...erling-august-2016-october-2017-a7923471.html

August was also the currency’s fourth consecutive month of declines against the euro

Forecaster at HSBC see it falling to parity against the euro in the last three months of this year and their peers at Morgan Stanley think one pound will be worth just as much as one euro at the start of 2018.

The move towards parity is also being exacerbated by strong data out of the eurozone. The euro has appreciated well over 10 per cent against the dollar this year.

“The longer the talks seem to go nowhere the worse it gets for sterling,” said Neil Wilson, a senior market analyst at ETX capital.

 

[hilts]

I'd have thought he'd be your go to man, he lived in a dream, was totally inept and kept believing his fantasy of impending greatness when all evidence was to the contrary.

Happy times

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

glad we're negotiating all these great new trade deals.

Brilliant.........its against the agreement to negotiate ANY deal outside of the EU on your own whilst a member of the EU (which we still technically are) so if this is correct (which I doubt) then we have just left ourselves wide open to a massive penalty and pissed off the EU negotiators. Well done Muppets!

 

[Mike D]

I can't keep up with all this Brexit good news....

Pound-euro exchange rate: Sterling suffers worst performance in 11 months as investors shun currency due to Brexit

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...erling-august-2016-october-2017-a7923471.html

August was also the currency’s fourth consecutive month of declines against the euro

Forecaster at HSBC see it falling to parity against the euro in the last three months of this year and their peers at Morgan Stanley think one pound will be worth just as much as one euro at the start of 2018.

The move towards parity is also being exacerbated by strong data out of the eurozone. The euro has appreciated well over 10 per cent against the dollar this year.

“The longer the talks seem to go nowhere the worse it gets for sterling,” said Neil Wilson, a senior market analyst at ETX capital.

On the flip side of that there are some investors who are cleaning up on this. Pretty shit for the rest of us I know but there are a few who are making a mint out of this and will as the sterling goes even further down the toilet.

 

[BobKowalski]

Brilliant.........its against the agreement to negotiate ANY deal outside of the EU on your own whilst a member of the EU (which we still technically are) so if this is correct (which I doubt) then we have just left ourselves wide open to a massive penalty and pissed off the EU negotiators. Well done Muppets!

We can't negotiate a deal but we can secure a commitment to pursue a deal once free to do so. In truth it doesn't mean much since it's a statement of the bleeding obvious. It also highlights our weakness given people like Fox where confidently predicting we would have these deals pretty much done by now. Instead the best we have is a promise to do something in the future and promises are cheap currency.

This agreement not only shows us our place in the pecking order, EU first then the UK, it also raises the timeframe issue. For starters an EU/Japan deal is years away and we have more pressing concerns. Also does the EU when it's negotiating the deal take any UK concerns into consideration? If it does then it means the UK is still in the EU via a transistion deal. But if the transistion deal is time limited then there is no point in taking the UK considerations into account since we will be out by the time the trade deal comes into effect. But if our concerns are not reflected in the trade deal then it is of little use as a template.

But say we match the transition period to the length of the EU/Japan deal and the EU negotiates taking UK considerations into account. So far so good. But then we finally leave and seek to replicate the deal which will take time say 18 months which is quick for a trade deal. What is our status with Japan in that 18 months? Do we still pay to come under the EU deal for that period (which kind of means we still haven't left)? And the real kicker is what's in all this for the EU? Where is their incentive? Why does the UK assume that the EU will go along with our grand plans given the evidence so far is that they can't be arsed?

This sort of 'promise' is a great headline and makes Brexiteers feel warm and fuzzy but it's a promise Japan can make given no one is cashing it in for years and since we have no idea what the final UK/EU deal will be maybe it's never cashed.

And before someone bangs on about 'no deal is a better deal' then why the hell would the EU negotiate a deal with Japan taking UK considerations into account if we are totally out of the EU with no agreement in place? Oh and Japan wants the UK to negotiate a deal with the EU that causes little to no disruption to their business interests in the UK ie Customs Union. You think they will be happy bunnies if we did crash out with no deal?

So we need a deal. Which brings us back to where we started.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Do you live in a cave?

Have you actually been following anything since the referendum?



You have consistently regaled us with how your take on Brexit will, definitely, without a shadow of doubt whatsoever, result in Armageddon. You foolishly threw out a challenge based on your unshakeable confidence that your Mystic Meg tribute act was the unswerving truth.
Although you don't really have a fucking clue do you? If you were so sure, you'd stick to your claims, but, surprise surprise, when fronted up with an acceptance of this offer, all of a sudden, it's not on the table.
So all the silly posturing, all the certainty, is really just what you hope happens, knowing inside, it really won't, will it?

 

[mat]

Tory negotiating team to in what's in it for me negotiating stance shocker.

Davis Is an embarrassment claiming the EU aren't be flexible. Newsflash! They don't have to be in the way you interpret the word. They have all the power in the negotiations not the banks and corporation s telling you how to do it.

 

[blueonblue]

Davis Is an embarrassment claiming the EU aren't be flexible. Newsflash! They don't have to be in the way you interpret the word. They have all the power in the negotiations

Prey tell how you came to that conclusion, as a fact there is no legal obligation for any financial penalties on exit, and as a matter of common sense the buyer has all the power, we buy twice as much from them as they buy from us.

There are EU assets that we own a share of, and the value of those exceed any ongoing liabilities we may be willing to cover IF the EU can make a case for doing so.

Hardly holding all the power is it ?

 

[BobKowalski]

Prey tell how you came to that conclusion, as a fact there is no legal obligation for any financial penalties on exit, and as a matter of common sense the buyer has all the power, we buy twice as much from them as they buy from us.

There are EU assets that we own a share of, and the value of those exceed any ongoing liabilities we may be willing to cover IF the EU can make a case for doing so.

Hardly holding all the power is it ?

Several points.

Legally we probably don't owe a penny. We are however on the hook for financial obligations freely entered into by ourselves. Legally we may not even be liable for these obligations but not even this Govt is stupid enough to try and weasel out of them. The payment of money is about paying for future goodwill and cooperation like this idea of cut and pasting EU trade deals as UK trade deals for example. In short you piss off a bloc of countries with an established legal, trade and monetary system you ain't going to get jack shit out of them when you need it. That we seem incapable of understanding this is one of the great mysteries of our times. To repeat the money is about buying influence, help and cooperation. We don't pay. We don't get.

German car makers and Italian wine producers are not coming to the rescue. They never were and are never going to. The other great hope of the FDP getting into Govt in Sept with Merkel and pushing for a 'be nice to the UK' line isn't going to happen either. Personally I think it would be better if we actually planned and invested for a future vision of the UK rather than whining and hoping for someone to rescue us but hey that seems to be our main negotiating strategy so let's see how it plays out.

Finally if you are whining about being 'blackmailed' or 'bullied' or 'punished' then this tells your opponent that you are in a weak position. If you are in a strong position or have the upper hand in negotiations then it is difficult to be blackmailed or bullied is it not? Again I think it is unwise to keep telling the EU we are weak enough to be bullied and blackmailed but hey it's a novel tactic and it's rank stupidity may even confound the EU. And we all may get a unicorn after all. We can but dream.

 

[mat]

Tory peer in wanting Brexit to increase slavery shocker.

Several points.

Legally we probably don't owe a penny. We are however on the hook for financial obligations freely entered into by ourselves. Legally we may not even be liable for these obligations but not even this Govt is stupid enough to try and weasel out of them. The payment of money is about paying for future goodwill and cooperation like this idea of cut and pasting EU trade deals as UK trade deals for example. In short you piss off a bloc of countries with an established legal, trade and monetary system you ain't going to get jack shit out of them when you need it. That we seem incapable of understanding this is one of the great mysteries of our times. To repeat the money is about buying influence, help and cooperation. We don't pay. We don't get.

German car makers and Italian wine producers are not coming to the rescue. They never were and are never going to. The other great hope of the FDP getting into Govt in Sept with Merkel and pushing for a 'be nice to the UK' line isn't going to happen either. Personally I think it would be better if we actually planned and invested for a future vision of the UK rather than whining and hoping for someone to rescue us but hey that seems to be our main negotiating strategy so let's see how it plays out.

Finally if you are whining about being 'blackmailed' or 'bullied' or 'punished' then this tells your opponent that you are in a weak position. If you are in a strong position or have the upper hand in negotiations then it is difficult to be blackmailed or bullied is it not? Again I think it is unwise to keep telling the EU we are weak enough to be bullied and blackmailed but hey it's a novel tactic and it's rank stupidity may even confound the EU. And we all may get a unicorn after all. We can but dream.

Nailed it Bob.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Fox is a nob!

At what point does poor negotiations end and blackmail start?

By moaning like this he is only confirming he is failing!

 

[Didsbury Dave]

This is like a snowball of shit rolling down a shit-covered hill rather fast.

Which is exactly what everybody sensible and informed said it would be before that fucking moronic referendum.

As every day goes by my conviction grows that this can not and will not happen and we look back on this in 20 years as the time the country nearly lost its mind and it's future.

 

[vonkeynotvenky]

In 20 years time there's every possibility the EU may not exist, we're leaving but this thread is hilarious.

 

[BobKowalski]

In 20 years time there's every possibility the EU may not exist, we're leaving but this thread is hilarious.

In 20 years time I doubt it will exist as it is now. The EU was constituted in 1993 out of the EEC and the forerunner to that being the European Coal and Steel community. It's an ever evolving structure and what it is now bears little resemblance to the EEC and the same will be said in 20 years time. The core of the project is the Euro even if that is distinct from the EU and if that continues to solidify and expand then yes it won't be the the EU. It won't quite be the United Countries of Europe with a federalised Govt but it will be close enough.

 

[vonkeynotvenky]

In 20 years time I doubt it will exist as it is now. The EU was constituted in 1993 out of the EEC and the forerunner to that being the European Coal and Steel community. It's an ever evolving structure and what it is now bears little resemblance to the EEC and the same will be said in 20 years time. The core of the project is the Euro even if that is distinct from the EU and if that continues to solidify and expand then yes it won't be the the EU. It won't quite be the United Countries of Europe with a federalised Govt but it will be close enough.

I agree that it will change i'm just thankful we wont be a fully paid up member and can watch the project reinvent itself to death before realising it was pointless. The death of the project will be nationalism and the poorer states that don't benefit from the Eurozone membership, the only beneficiaries are the well to do and big business.
At least our light bulbs and vacuums are up to scratch now and wont kill Whales.

 

[BobKowalski]

I agree that it will change i'm just thankful we wont be a fully paid up member and can watch the project reinvent itself to death before realising it was pointless. The death of the project will be nationalism and the poorer states that don't benefit from the Eurozone membership, the only beneficiaries are the well to do and big business.
At least our light bulbs and vacuums are up to scratch now and wont kill Whales.

No. Whilst there will always be problems and regions/countries doing less well than others (just as in the US states vary in their economic and social performance) this has little to do with the EU. These problems are inherent within the structure of the countries themselves. The Euro does magnify some of these problems but the problems in Greece for example were the product of Greece itself. The problems were always there but membership of the Euro magnified these problems and bought them to a head.

The UK's problem of say stagnant wage growth and austerity are UK problems not EU problems. Only Greece and ourselves showed a decline in real terms in wage growth. These are UK problems which we blame on the EU because it suited domestic politicians to blame it on the faceless men of Brussels yada, yada. It is always someone's fault never ours is the mother of its the EU fault we can't get a deal.

And we will never escape the EU. It's impossible. You can be out of it but never escape it. You can be out but we will always be in it. Our light bulbs and vacuum cleaners will be forever linked to the EU. Three regions have the heft and clout to decide and impose standards. The US, China and the EU. And we are in Europe and they will set the standards which we will adopt. We have no choice. If we do a deal on the NI border (which we want) it will end with NI getting special economic status. And if it works then Scotland and Wales will do the same. We will be surrounded by the EU and if we want to play in the EU backyard we will have to pay like Switzerland does.

I'll go back to May's big win on Japan's trade deal. Reality is like everything else it will be done on the back of the EU. And if we want things on the back of the EU then there will be a price. Everything we want will have a price. Brexit is not taking back control. It is surrendering it.

 

[Manchester_lalala]

This is like a snowball of shit rolling down a shit-covered hill rather fast.

Which is exactly what everybody sensible and informed said it would be before that fucking moronic referendum.

As every day goes by my conviction grows that this can not and will not happen and we look back on this in 20 years as the time the country nearly lost its mind and it's future.

Get over it.