Another new Brexit thread

[Didsbury Dave]

I've just come out of a board meeting where all we discussed was the increasing impact of Brexit on the economy and our business. We've put a strategy in place for if we leave the EU this year - deal or no deal - and it involves multiple redundancies.

Maddeningly, or tantalisingly, all the analysts predict an explosion of pent-up demand should we decide to Remain. It won't claw back the untold billions we've already wasted, but it will be a nice additional carrot.

 

[Ban-jani]

They can manoeuvre all they like; However EU law continues to be supreme to UK law, and the Eu says that we leave on 31st.

That’s true but again, despite how useless the House is, they won’t be sat on their hands waiting for that date to just default no deal.

 

[blueinsa]

And that is why either Brexit will be lost or the Union will be lost. Scotland and NI dismissed as ‘so what’.

It wasn’t enough to win a narrow referendum. Brexiteers had to bring the country and our Union with them. Brexit had to lead to somewhere and it had to be positive. Brexiteers failed to provide that leadership or the positive vision needed to bring people with them. Imposing an unwanted decision on a country which has the agency to secede from that decision will end in secession.

We dont agree Bob.

Happy to discuss whats coming next mate.

 

[Ban-jani]

I've just come out of a board meeting where all we discussed was the increasing impact of Brexit on the economy and our business. We've put a strategy in place for if we leave the EU this year - deal or no deal - and it involves multiple redundancies.

Maddeningly, or tantalisingly, all the analysts predict an explosion of pent-up demand should we decide to Remain. It won't claw back the untold billions we've already wasted, but it will be a nice additional carrot.

My old boss, now on the board here, has told me he’s worried we’ll have “empty offices” throughout the country, in the event of no deal.

Being in recruitment, we’re always one of the first to be affected as companies just stop hiring.

 

[stonerblue]

bloody hell, i was about 200 pages behind trying to catch up. oh well.

Jeremy Corbyn has challenged the next PM to put their Brexit deal or a no deal exit to a second referendum, saying Labour would campaign for Remain in those scenarios.

Finally Labour reveal their hand. Bring it on..

 

[BobKowalski]

They can manoeuvre all they like; However EU law continues to be supreme to UK law, and the Eu says that we leave on 31st.

The chances of the EU deciding we should leave or be seen to be ejecting us and taking the flak for the shitshow that follows is zero. The decision will be taken by the leaders of the 27 countries and they will thread a path by talking tough to please their own domestic audiences and allowing us the option to extend our stay especially if Dublin insist on it.

The EU itself will recommend an extension to the E27 leaders given they proposed a year last time.

Also remind me again, if we are hell bent on leaving, why are we waiting for the 31st Oct? Why not leave on the 15th or the 1st?

 

[Blue Hefner]

I've just come out of a board meeting where all we discussed was the increasing impact of Brexit on the economy and our business. We've put a strategy in place for if we leave the EU this year - deal or no deal - and it involves multiple redundancies.

Maddeningly, or tantalisingly, all the analysts predict an explosion of pent-up demand should we decide to Remain. It won't claw back the untold billions we've already wasted, but it will be a nice additional carrot.

Which industry are you in?

 

[BobKowalski]

We dont agree Bob.

Happy to discuss whats coming next mate.

No probs. Enjoying the debate as always :)

 

[blueinsa]

Also remind me again, if we are hell bent on leaving, why are we waiting for the 31st Oct? Why not leave on the 15th or the 1st?

Is it because we are not really leaving? ;-)

 

[west didsblue]

I've just come out of a board meeting where all we discussed was the increasing impact of Brexit on the economy and our business. We've put a strategy in place for if we leave the EU this year - deal or no deal - and it involves multiple redundancies.

Maddeningly, or tantalisingly, all the analysts predict an explosion of pent-up demand should we decide to Remain. It won't claw back the untold billions we've already wasted, but it will be a nice additional carrot.

That's what will stop the Leavers kicking off too much if we end up remaining. That, together with the £39bn divorce money that the government will be able to pump into the economy instead of giving to the EU.

 

[smudgedj]

Also remind me again, if we are hell bent on leaving, why are we waiting for the 31st Oct? Why not leave on the 15th or the 1st?

Even though ‘The no deal scenario is considered by the officials as the most likely out come’ They didn't fully prepare.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Which industry are you in?

Vintners to Jean Claude Juncker?
(just a joke, now we're all civilised again;)

 

[George Hannah]

I simply posted the email, as nobody else had.

Whatever they do, whatever happens in a GE, I personally would abstain unless my preferred option was on the ballot.

I assume there would be a referendum on the leave or status quo basis, based on whatever deal they happened to make. I presume if Labour were happy with the deal they got they would support leave, if not they would support remain. This has been the problem for the Tories too, if you don't know what any deal, or no deal entails how can you just go ahead regardless. Parliament will stand in the way, it is there job to do so and represent all there electorate. I will not go over old ground and repeat the arguments that have raged for months, but I do think the Labour stance does change things quite significantly. It is a stance I will have to think through and come to a value judgement when I am in a position to know all the facts.

All I do think, is I wish this whole damaging episode would come to an end, its made the country a laughing stock and it has been so divisive it will take years to become a united nation. In the meanwhile we have the singular most incompetent government in living memory, people are hurting and the country is falling apart, but all that matters to some is fucking Brexit.

So, how does Jezzer force a second referendum with no HoP majority and what would be his Brexit position in any Autumn general election? No answers it seems.

 

[mcfc1632]

Only if we're able to agree on what the options should be!

I am with Blueinsa on this

1. Remain, representing a binding commitment to a path of full economic, fiscal and political integration, the implementation of which will be undertaken through joint planning with the EU

2. Leave, representing a binding commitment to Leave the EU within 2 years on either the basis of a No-Deal outcome or a negotiated deal if that precedes the deadline

 

[BobKowalski]

Even though ‘The no deal scenario is considered by the officials as the most likely out come’ They didn't fully prepare.

Yeah that extra 15 days will make all the difference. Fact is we could leave anytime between now and the 31st and it would make little difference to our ‘preparedness’. So again for the curious among us. Why do you think we are not exiting 15 days earlier? Or let’s make it 7 days. Go for broke. Control the narrative. Seize the initiative. Let’s leave on, say, 25th Oct. Any reason why we shouldn’t do this? Nothing stopping us.

 

[Ban-jani]

I am with Blueinsa on this

1. Remain, representing a binding commitment to a path of full economic, fiscal and political integration, the implementation of which will be undertaken through joint planning with the EU

2. Leave, representing a binding commitment to Leave the EU within 2 years on either the basis of a No-Deal outcome or a negotiated deal if that precedes the deadline

1. Why would we push through a commitment that’s worse than the one we currently have? I appreciate your point is that political integration is an inevitability but we may as well have our current position whilst it lasts (if it is an inevitability). I think we forget that it’s supposed to be a decision on what’s best for the country.

2. The EU will not reopen the Withdrawal Agreement so it may as well be a deadline to leave on no deal or with the current agreement.

 

[Vic]

I am with Blueinsa on this

1. Remain, representing a binding commitment to a path of full economic, fiscal and political integration, the implementation of which will be undertaken through joint planning with the EU

2. Leave, representing a binding commitment to Leave the EU within 2 years on either the basis of a No-Deal outcome or a negotiated deal if that precedes the deadline

Forgive me if I misrepresent your view but by your reckoning, wouldn't Remain on the status quo lead inexorably to your "1" option anyway?

 

[MillionMilesAway]

This isn't a policy that after discussion gets binned off, its the result of a democratic vote, the largest we have ever had in this country and one that parliament promised the electorate they would respect and enact.

If you think refusing to accept votes from now on because you dont like the result then say that. Its an opinion, not one i can ever agree with but its better than trying to tell us that democracy is in action here if we dont leave as per the result.

Parliament can do what they want you are spot on.

So too can the electorate at the next GE.

That is the conundrum for politicians who know to not leave will be political suicide for a large majority of them.

I will not respond to any of those points directly; answering them directly means I accept the framework, particularly of the second sentence. I don't. I did not say what is suggested because it does not define what I think.

A democratic organisation overriding a democratic vote is still democracy. I do not agree that any one option is the only democratic path available, and thus it follows that in this case, anything decided by Parliament is democratic. Most importantly, it is incredibly rare that a parliament is bound by decisions made by either previous parliaments or decisions made previously by itself. It can change its mind if it chooses to.

I do hold to any opinion that states one concept of democracy is better than another, per se; however, I do believe that in the UK, Parliament is supreme decision maker, over and above any referendum, and should act for the good of the country. Reading into this that this is an opinion based on any particular vote is (a) guesswork, (b) inaccurate, and (c) fallacious.

I think Peterborough may be causing a lot of rethinking. The Brexit party did not win there. I think there may be a lot of seats, particularly many Labour ones, which won't change either. Political suicide for a number, yes, that's likely, but not a majority of them.

 

[BobKowalski]

Ireland still not biting the bullet on the border issue but does talk about disruption in N-South trade because of tariffs/regs which doesn’t take a genius to work out means...checks

‘FULL REPORT: "No easy answers" for Irish border, Irish government says. Says still talking to EU about animal and agrifood checks. More police already deployed at border. Up to 55k jobs in Ireland at risk. UK freight would need 24 h our notice.’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...t-to-discuss-dire-outcomes-of-no-deal-brexit?

 

[west didsblue]

Now we're all getting on, as the backstop seems to be the biggest stopper with the WA, I would appreciate a Leaver opinion on what they would like to see as the agreed position if the unfettered backstop in the current WA were to be replaced by a time bound backstop. What would the default position be if the backstop time ran out before any agreement was reached?