Another new Brexit thread

[blueinsa]

Now we're all getting on, as the backstop seems to be the biggest stopper with the WA, I would appreciate a Leaver opinion on what they would like to see as the agreed position if the unfettered backstop in the current WA were to be replaced by a time bound backstop. What would the default position be if the backstop time ran out before any agreement was reached?

Id like to see pressure from Dublin on Brussels which i think is happening regards no hard border and limited goods checks on agri done away from the border either side with most major importers and exporters on a trusted trader arrangement in the short term with of course FOM across the border as in the common travel area.

Do that, very publicly work on the tech solutions that have been suggested and match the time frames for those with a similar time frame given to the WA.

Huge amounts of political will are needed to solve the border issue but its possible if that will is there and funnily enough, the GFA is such an important document and agreement that no side, be it us, Dublin or Brussels can walk away from it and say fuck you its a hard border and checks and that is that.

Dublin and Brussels have played the border superbly and rightly so but i do believe deep down, Dublin will separate itself from any hard border request from Brussels as its an absolute no no for any Irish gov to implement one and that trumps any SM/CU/EU rule.

Geographically with no other land borders to worry about its doable imo and the sheer scale of a no deal brexit and its impact on the ROI and NI especially suggests that something will be done of its only the lack of a time frame attached to the WA is stopping a deal being done.

For clarity and to spare the thread descending into its usual arguments over this, you asked my opinion and here it is.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

I will not respond to any of those points directly; answering them directly means I accept the framework, particularly of the second sentence. I don't. I did not say what is suggested because it does not define what I think.

A democratic organisation overriding a democratic vote is still democracy. I do not agree that any one option is the only democratic path available, and thus it follows that in this case, anything decided by Parliament is democratic. Most importantly, it is incredibly rare that a parliament is bound by decisions made by either previous parliaments or decisions made previously by itself. It can change its mind if it chooses to.

I do hold to any opinion that states one concept of democracy is better than another, per se; however, I do believe that in the UK, Parliament is supreme decision maker, over and above any referendum, and should act for the good of the country. Reading into this that this is an opinion based on any particular vote is (a) guesswork, (b) inaccurate, and (c) fallacious.

I think Peterborough may be causing a lot of rethinking. The Brexit party did not win there. I think there may be a lot of seats, particularly many Labour ones, which won't change either. Political suicide for a number, yes, that's likely, but not a majority of them.

Good post. In summary, a democracy which cannot change its mind ceases to be a democracy.

 

[BobKowalski]

Greg Hands on the alternative arrangements. Several points. Dismissing this as ‘preserving the status quo’ is unhelpful and will cause people to dig their heels in even more. Irish firms do not see any changes as being ‘relatively modest or straightforward’. And just as importantly there is no political will in Ireland or in border counties on either side to solve our Brexit problems given they are quite happy with the solution already agreed with the U.K. Govt. We still seem to forget that the U.K. telling Ireland what it needs to do is not going to work.

"Preserving the status quo at all costs is not an approach that leads to a Brexit deal." The Alternative Arrangements chief says that changes Irish firms need to make are "relatively modest in scope and straightforward to implement. A no-deal scenario in Ireland really would be hugely disruptive and far more costly than implementing established customs procedures from around the world. When it comes to delivering Brexit, it is a classic case of where there is a will, there is a way."

 

[BobKowalski]

Id like to see pressure from Dublin on Brussels which i think is happening regards no hard border and limited goods checks on agri done away from the border either side with most major importers and exporters on a trusted trader arrangement in the short term with of course FOM across the border as in the common travel area.

Do that, very publicly work on the tech solutions that have been suggested and match the time frames for those with a similar time frame given to the WA.

Huge amounts of political will are needed to solve the border issue but its possible if that will is there and funnily enough, the GFA is such an important document and agreement that no side, be it us, Dublin or Brussels can walk away from it and say fuck you its a hard border and checks and that is that.

Dublin and Brussels have played the border superbly and rightly so but i do believe deep down, Dublin will separate itself from any hard border request from Brussels as its an absolute no no for any Irish gov to implement one and that trumps any SM/CU/EU rule.

Geographically with no other land borders to worry about its doable imo and the sheer scale of a no deal brexit and its impact on the ROI and NI especially suggests that something will be done of its only the lack of a time frame attached to the WA is stopping a deal being done.

For clarity and to spare the thread descending into its usual arguments over this, you asked my opinion and here it is.

There is more pressure from Brussels on Dublin as to what they will do in the event of no deal. Dublin have already conceded there will have to be checks and there will be disruption to North-South trade because of tariffs and regs. The only point Dublin will not publicly concede is border checks. Dublin ultimately will value the SM/CU over everything else because to do otherwise will be seen as caving to the British and politically that’s suicide whereas managing a temporary no deal scenario and blaming the British for the mess plays better. Dublin knows that at some point the U.K. has to reach a deal with the EU irrespective of whether this is before or after we leave. A no deal scenario isn’t sustainable for the U.K.

Dublin will also say a deal was agreed with the U.K. Govt but political instability in London prevented it happening and this instability is the cause of the problem. Blaming the Brits is an easy sell and will find a receptive audience in border counties on both sides.

 

[blueinsa]

There is more pressure from Brussels on Dublin as to what they will do in the event of no deal. Dublin have already conceded there will have to be checks and there will be disruption to North-South trade because of tariffs and regs. The only point Dublin will not publicly concede is border checks. Dublin ultimately will value the SM/CU over everything else because to do otherwise will be seen as caving to the British and politically that’s suicide whereas managing a temporary no deal scenario and blaming the British for the mess plays better. Dublin knows that at some point the U.K. has to reach a deal with the EU irrespective of whether this is before or after we leave. A no deal scenario isn’t sustainable for the U.K.

Dublin will also say a deal was agreed with the U.K. Govt but political instability in London prevented it happening and this instability is the cause of the problem. Blaming the Brits is an easy sell and will find a receptive audience in border counties on both sides.

The blame game whilst fun will not bring about workable solutions.

More talks, red lines rubbed out here and there on both sides, victories claimed and given on both sides and to protect the economies of the ROI/NI and the UK along with the EU a deal will be reached imo.

As you have said all along though its not getting done next week nor by the end of Oct so quite how the Conservatives will pull it out of the proverbial hat and get it agreed with Dublin, Brussels and parliament is anyone's guess but pull it they must as they rely on this deal for their political survival.

Politically as well i can well imagine them all agreeing that at all costs the likes of Farage have to be stopped and that could well play a part and help any future deal.

 

[Dax777]

I want to understand this issue better... Off to get a refresher course. :)

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

The blame game whilst fun will not bring about workable solutions.

More talks, red lines rubbed out here and there on both sides, victories claimed and given on both sides and to protect the economies of the ROI/NI and the UK along with the EU a deal will be reached imo.

As you have said all along though its not getting done next week nor by the end of Oct so quite how the Conservatives will pull it out of the proverbial hat and get it agreed with Dublin, Brussels and parliament is anyone's guess but pull it they must as they rely on this deal for their political survival.

Politically as well i can well imagine them all agreeing that at all costs the likes of Farage have to be stopped and that could well play a part and help any future deal.

Lot of focus on the border and it needs sorting but correct me if I am wrong but Northern Ireland hasn’t even got a working government at the moment and has not for quite some time.

Anyway if they do find a solution

Next stop ....

Gibraltar

 

[Rascal]

So, how does Jezzer force a second referendum with no HoP majority and what would be his Brexit position in any Autumn general election? No answers it seems.

He cant, i thought that is obvious. It would depend on if he won a GE and then got a deal he thought worthy. Then quite rightly parliament would decide.

As much as you think Labour are totalitarian Marxists, they really are not, they are democrats so he could not force it on the people, he is not a dictator.

 

[Vic]

Lot of focus on the border and it needs sorting but correct me if I am wrong but Northern Ireland hasn’t even got a working government at the moment and has not for quite some time.

Anyway if they do find a solution

Next stop ....

Gibraltar

Unfortunately, seeking an EU trade deal after we leave without a deal is the sort of scenario where issues like Gibraltar will be much more of a problem than in leaving with a deal and a political declaration.

 

[mat]

He cant, i thought that is obvious. It would depend on if he won a GE and then got a deal he thought worthy. Then quite rightly parliament would decide.

As much as you think Labour are totalitarian Marxists, they really are not, they are democrats so he could not force it on the people, he is not a dictator.

Be careful Rasc. You aren't following media narrative that us labour folks are extremists who'd destroy the country should we take power...

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Unfortunately, seeking an EU trade deal after we leave without a deal is the sort of scenario where issues like Gibraltar will be much more of a problem than in leaving with a deal and a political declaration.

I know I just wanted to make sure you have all the problems on your list

 

[journolud]

If and it is an if, the above happens we can as a democratic country vote to reverse our decision and rejoin the EU.

All of the above can happen with a shit government and has done way too frequently so we go to the polls and vote the fuckers out to let the next lot in to fuck it up ;-)

We dont and never will hopefully get to the point where results of elections are ignored because a minority doesnt like it.

Assuming that at that point the EU would welcome us back with open arms. Given how difficult it has been to negotiate our departure I'm far from confident that we could just turn up like the prodigal son and get back in without protracted and difficult decisions. For me, if we leave (and I'm a remainer) then we leave for good (or bad as I expect it will be).

You're right up to a point that we can vote out shit governments but it has always been, up to now, one or the other, Labour or Conservative. Both of these parties have broken election promises in their time only to be reelected next time round. The electroate might have a longer memory in regards to brexit but again that is assuming it is the only issue in people's minds when they vote at the next election. I would rather hope they take a wider view.

 

[Vic]

I want to understand this issue better... Off to get a refresher course. :)

Try this. From 15 mins in about Ireland but the bit from 26 mins will explain all about why the issue is so sensitive.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0003cr7

 

[BobKowalski]

The blame game whilst fun will not bring about workable solutions.

More talks, red lines rubbed out here and there on both sides, victories claimed and given on both sides and to protect the economies of the ROI/NI and the UK along with the EU a deal will be reached imo.

As you have said all along though its not getting done next week nor by the end of Oct so quite how the Conservatives will pull it out of the proverbial hat and get it agreed with Dublin, Brussels and parliament is anyone's guess but pull it they must as they rely on this deal for their political survival.

Politically as well i can well imagine them all agreeing that at all costs the likes of Farage have to be stopped and that could well play a part and help any future deal.

No they won’t but it’s important to recognise what political wriggle room Dublin has and it isn’t on the side of helping the British unlock a Brexit that is acceptable to them and crap for Ireland. And no it won’t get done by the end of Oct which is why we are having a new PM and cabinet and negotiating team so we can get another A50 extension to ‘see what the new team can deliver’. Spoiler. Not a lot.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Lot of focus on the border and it needs sorting but correct me if I am wrong but Northern Ireland hasn’t even got a working government at the moment and has not for quite some time.

Anyway if they do find a solution

Next stop ....

Gibraltar

agreed - we should all move there and then re-join the thread - the weather is much much better...............

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

They look like two men who have never been to Salford before

 

[Dax777]

Try this. From 15 mins in about Ireland but the bit from 26 mins will explain all about why the issue is so sensitive.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0003cr7

Much appreciated. :)

 

[mcfc1632]

This is BS. There is only one remain option which is the EU as it currently is. We either remain on our current deal or we dont. There is no 'full integration' to decide on. You're just projecting the issues of leave on to remain.

Remain is a simple concept and 100% deliverable with zero issues.

Leaving is a mass of technical problems with a miriad of options/solutions none of which produce a fully satisfactory outcome.

Disagree - perhaps the Remainers did not know what they were voting for?

If we Remain beyond this point the certain outcome is integration - only the timing is a question

I understand that Remainers want to load a 2nd vote by portraying that the pre2016 world can carry on forever and prefer to set that against an extreme leave outcome

That is, IMO, called;

a) loading the dice

b) detached from reality- which a majority might fall for and thereby be attarctive - but there should be honesty on both sides

 

[Onholiday(somemightsay)]

If your vote had been ignored, we wouldn't have had this three year shit show.

'kin hell - It's bad as the Yaya thread in here.........;-)

 

[west didsblue]

Id like to see pressure from Dublin on Brussels which i think is happening regards no hard border and limited goods checks on agri done away from the border either side with most major importers and exporters on a trusted trader arrangement in the short term with of course FOM across the border as in the common travel area.

Do that, very publicly work on the tech solutions that have been suggested and match the time frames for those with a similar time frame given to the WA.

Huge amounts of political will are needed to solve the border issue but its possible if that will is there and funnily enough, the GFA is such an important document and agreement that no side, be it us, Dublin or Brussels can walk away from it and say fuck you its a hard border and checks and that is that.

Dublin and Brussels have played the border superbly and rightly so but i do believe deep down, Dublin will separate itself from any hard border request from Brussels as its an absolute no no for any Irish gov to implement one and that trumps any SM/CU/EU rule.

Geographically with no other land borders to worry about its doable imo and the sheer scale of a no deal brexit and its impact on the ROI and NI especially suggests that something will be done of its only the lack of a time frame attached to the WA is stopping a deal being done.

For clarity and to spare the thread descending into its usual arguments over this, you asked my opinion and here it is.

Thanks for your opinion. All valid points but it doesn’t answer the question asked which was what is the fallback position if a solution agreeable to both sides isn’t found and a time-bound backstop expires?