Another new Brexit thread

[west didsblue]

I will if we have a thread discussing what went on in that year ;-)

It was you that mentioned the UK not needing to run cap in hand. But let’s ignore when we did.

 

[Vic]

I’d say it’s more related to a poor grasp of English grammar and reality.

No, just astonishing arrogance.

 

[Vic]

... I am concerned with the "more integration/European Defence Force which ALL members must contribute/more to the EU budget/EU superpower" style rhetoric of the time. ...

I think you'll find that was the rhetoric of the Express and Mail rather than the rhetoric of the EU.

 

[Blue Hefner]

That's what you want, isn't it?

We'd be signed up to Schengen at the same time.

Given the £ is looking like being worth less than the € in the next 12 months, maybe it’s not a bad idea

Re Schengen - given Brexit wasn’t about immigration, I’m not sure why you brought it up

 

[Metal Biker]

Given the £ is looking like being worth less than the € in the next 12 months, maybe it’s not a bad idea

Re Schengen - given Brexit wasn’t about immigration, I’m not sure why you brought it up

Ooh sounds like you really want it to be though don't you. Schengen isn't about immigration levels anyway, it's about relaxed border controls for EU citizens.

Because all new EU members from now on must be signed up to the Euro, Eurozone, Schengen and the EDF proposals. The UK currently is not signed up to it just as Ireland aren't. Nothing more than that.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

The referendum result is still important for many MPs who think Brexit is crap but the result should be respected (maybe fewer If they watch The Great Hack). But for more MPs that advisory referendum would not take precedence over saving the country from self-harm.

It looks like we would not be in the position last March of getting an extension at two days notice. Had May not agreed to an extension, Parliament would have had a day to decide whether to vote to stop a No Deal exit. This time there would likely be much more time to decide between No Deal and No Brexit, but legislation can be passed in one day.

My contention is that legislation is not necessary. The default position is in the EU Withdrawal Act - currently we leave on 31st October as that is the current "exit day" - but, if Parliament simply votes to revoke Article 50, what constitutional right would the PM have to ignore that?

Parliament gave the PM the authority to invoke Article 50, but that does not mean it needs the authority of the PM to revoke it. That authority rests with Parliament (bearing in mind that the option to revoke was not thought to be an option at the time). So if Parliament votes to revoke article 50 and the EU accepts that (no matter what the outvoted PM says) then we don't leave and the "default position" in the Act (indeed the whole Act) is redundant as there is no "exit day". For tidiness, a one line bill repealing the Act could be passed but I don't see it as essential.

This seems to be based upon the assumption that the same parliament that has already voted in favour of article 50 would vote to revoke it. It may be the case, but by no means probable.

 

[BobKowalski]

This seems to be based upon the assumption that the same parliament that has already voted in favour of article 50 would vote to revoke it. It may be the case, but by no means probable.

It’s a different Parliament. A50 was triggered in March 2017. The GE was in June 2017 and a new Parliament constituted.

 

[cibaman]

Manifesto to revoke A50

How quickly could Labour agree such a change in policy? If, on 1st September, Johnson were to call an election, when would labour be able to publish a manifesto with such a change (or any significant change) to its brexit policy?

 

[Vic]

How quickly could Labour agree such a change in policy? If, on 1st September, Johnson were to call an election, when would labour be able to publish a manifesto with such a change (or any significant change) to its brexit policy?

It would do it though. The NEC has the power.

If Johnson is offering £2bn to Labour Leave areas to offset the damage of Brexit, Labour offers them £3bn and they don't have to suffer the damage of Brexit.

I don't think it's likely in September. Party conference season and most of his elderly party members are abroad (after the school holidays).

 

[Vic]

(hopefully) the EU will be significantly less attractive and powerful without the UK in their membership

Attractive to whom? The nations that want to join?

I can't really recall (though it may have happened) someone on here advocating we Leave in the hope that it will weaken the EU. (Or Remain hoping it will weaken the USA.)

You are Vlad Putin and I claim my 50,000 roubles. (If you're in Cyprus you'd be handy for the handover from his oligarch mates.)

 

[yerwot?]

I think you'll find that was the rhetoric of the Express and Mail rather than the rhetoric of the EU.

Books 1 and 2 of the brexit bible of bollox

 

[bluethrunthru]

I’d say it’s more related to a poor grasp of English grammar and reality.

Rees-Mogg will put that right...............

 

[cibaman]

It would do it though. The NEC has the power.

If Johnson is offering £2bn to Labour Leave areas to offset the damage of Brexit, Labour offers them £3bn and they don't have to suffer the damage of Brexit.

I don't think it's likely in September. Party conference season and most of his elderly party members are abroad (after the school holidays).

It probably would need the nec to push through a brexit policy for the manifesto. But unless there’s widespread buy in by the party they’ll struggle to sell it during the campaign.

I expect Johnson will announce the election in September to be held in October. Although there’s some speculation that he might announce an election to be held in November as a means of closing down parliament during October.

 

[Blue Hefner]

It probably would need the nec to push through a brexit policy for the manifesto. But unless there’s widespread buy in by the party they’ll struggle to sell it during the campaign.

I expect Johnson will announce the election in September to be held in October. Although there’s some speculation that he might announce an election to be held in November as a means of closing down parliament during October.

I can’t see that. If we leave with no-deal, particularly by shutting down Parliament, he’ll lose the next election.

He’s already said no-deal isn’t the preferred option so to stumble through to no-deal won’t look good

 

[cibaman]

I can’t see that. If we leave with no-deal, particularly by shutting down Parliament, he’ll lose the next election.

He’s already said no-deal isn’t the preferred option so to stumble through to no-deal won’t look good

I agree that holding an election immediately after we’ve left with no deal would be a massive gamble. Holding an election before Halloween would be reckless as it would mean that government would be away campaigning when everyone should be focused on getting a deal or no deal planning.

But he’s made such a huge thing about leaving on 31st October that he might take desperate measures to prevent parliament from blocking him

 

[mcfc1632]

Attractive to whom? The nations that want to join?

I can't really recall (though it may have happened) someone on here advocating we Leave in the hope that it will weaken the EU. (Or Remain hoping it will weaken the USA.)

You are Vlad Putin and I claim my 50,000 roubles. (If you're in Cyprus you'd be handy for the handover from his oligarch mates.)

I have often said that I do not want to see damage to the EU - although I am confident that difficult times are certain - I said (hopefully) they would be less attractive because that would mean that we have left

 

[hgblue]

I can’t see that. If we leave with no-deal, particularly by shutting down Parliament, he’ll lose the next election.

He’s already said no-deal isn’t the preferred option so to stumble through to no-deal won’t look good

We won’t be leaving with a deal because the EU are unwilling to surrender their hard fought trump card known as the backstop, and we won’t be leaving without a deal because Parliament will stop this. Boris knows all this already, why do you think he’s out there campaigning for the next election?

 

[BobKowalski]

We won’t be leaving with a deal because the EU are unwilling to surrender their hard fought trump card known as the backstop, and we won’t be leaving without a deal because Parliament will stop this. Boris knows all this already, why do you think he’s out there campaigning for the next election?

Johnson’s Brexit guru Dominic Cummings has ruled out an election before 31st October. Plan is to crash out and thinks MPs cannot stop it. We must obey the referendum no matter what apparently.

Also the backstop wasn’t a ‘hard fought’ EU trump card. The U.K. proposed and drafted the fucking thing.

 

[Vic]

It probably would need the nec to push through a brexit policy for the manifesto. But unless there’s widespread buy in by the party they’ll struggle to sell it during the campaign.

I expect Johnson will announce the election in September to be held in October. Although there’s some speculation that he might announce an election to be held in November as a means of closing down parliament during October.

He can't "announce an election". He'd need Labour support and if his motive was to shut Parliament over October 31st they'd have a good reason to tell him to stuff it.

 

[hgblue]

Johnson’s Brexit guru Dominic Cummings has ruled out an election before 31st October. Plan is to crash out and thinks MPs cannot stop it. We must obey the referendum no matter what apparently.

Also the backstop wasn’t a ‘hard fought’ EU trump card. The U.K. proposed and drafted the fucking thing.

I think you need to recalibrate to the post May era. She was playing draughts and these guys are playing three dimensional chess. Of course they are going to say they’re going to force through no deal, in reality they know Parliament will stop them, in fact they’re banking on it. It’s obvious from the cabinet and Boris’s behaviour that the focus is on the next election.