Another new Brexit thread

[Ancient Citizen]

Yes. November 1st, if we’ve left with no deal, nothing will be going into the EU, have you been asleep when everyone has been talking about the disruption? We will then from there look to strike smaller deals but they will be significantly worse than being in the Single Market. With regards to the rest of the world, again November 1st, we will have no trade agreements with anyone and we’ll be starting to get back up to £171bn levels by scratch.

So tell me, how is it at the very least going to be the same?

I'm not telling you anything mate, you've already decided that the UK ceases exports on the 1st of November.
Not only to the EU, but everywhere else as well.
As I said, we'll take a look see in the middle of November, if we're not in the grip of starvation by then and outside
the door resembles a scene from Escape from New York.

 

[Len Rum]

So, according to you, we export £134 billion to the EU, and that at the very least that is now not happening.
Which means, if we're out on 31 Oct, all our EU exports will cease, nothing will be exported, at all.
Plus, horror of horrors, most of the £171 billion we export to the rest of the world will likely be drastically reduced.
I'll bookmark this page and come back to it around mid November.
Should be a good laugh.

Ok the Ban does get it slightly wrong but it's wrong to say that EU exports and (exports to those countries with a deal via the EU) won't be significantly affected by tariff and non tariff barriers from day 1.
In a chaotic no deal scenario the impact could be worse due to logistics and infrastructure problems.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Ok the Ban does get it slightly wrong but it's wrong to say that EU exports and (exports to those countries with a deal via the EU) won't be significantly affected by tariff and non tariff barriers from day 1.
In a chaotic no deal scenario the impact could be worse due to logistics and infrastructure problems.

No, according to Ban nothing is slightly wrong, it all finishes on 1 Nov.
Everything.
To everywhere.
Remainers are always right, they have been right all along, have they not?
One of us is going to look a right dipstick in a few months, get your bets on now.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

It's annoying isn't it Gord, being told constantly the reasons why you voted, you know, like being
told you're a racist, a little Englander, that you hate Europeans, that you want to completely halt immigration,
that you're stupid, that you don't understand the EU, that you were seduced by lies, and all the other 'Reasons'
we've had to listen to from those who simply don't respect our democratic will.
It's just a good chuckle to see some outrage when the 16.2 million get told why they voted;)

It doesn't bother me tbh, but then I'm blessed with uncommon powers of self-confidence. I'd ignore them if I were you.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Ok the Ban does get it slightly wrong but it's wrong to say that EU exports and (exports to those countries with a deal via the EU) won't be significantly affected by tariff and non tariff barriers from day 1.
In a chaotic no deal scenario the impact could be worse due to logistics and infrastructure problems.

Exports and imports will be subject to WTO rules. The Director General of the WTO has stated that a no deal Brexit should be avoided at all costs to avoid the massive disruption., not just from the application of tariffs but ensuring correct certification and licensing.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

It doesn't bother me tbh, but then I'm blessed with uncommon powers of self-confidence. I'd ignore them if I were you.

Lol, nice one.

 

[mcfc1632]

I did. You clearly haven't read it.
Mate all I asked for was a straight answer to a straight question. I finally came to the conclusion yesterday that I am wasting my time engaging with you. In my opinion, you are unwilling to engage in any proper detailed discussion about why 'No Deal' is the best option for the UK over revocation of A50. Your dismissal of the problems surrounding the GFA finally did it for me.

There are those on here who are willing to write down opinions that are backed by facts or at least some detail that helps others understand where they are coming from. You are not one of them and you expect acceptance of your beliefs and then dismiss or deflect in a patronising (imo) way any that don't accept them. That of course is your choice.
Its my choice to no longer view you as a serious poster on this thread. Enjoy the rest of your holiday.

All cool - and thanks for the good wishes - indeed I am on the way to the 1st tee at Secret Valley as I type this - so it is going well

There is a response to the GFA I will wish to give when back on the laptop

Please just ignore it - but I think they are valid viewpoints to share

 

[Len Rum]

No, according to Ban nothing is slightly wrong, it all finishes on 1 Nov.
Everything.
To everywhere.
Remainers are always right, they have been right all along, have they not?
One of us is going to look a right dipstick in a few months, get your bets on now.

I was using ' slightly' in the polite English understatement way.
I'm sure you are aware of such nuances.

 

[Ban-jani]

I'm not telling you anything mate, you've already decided that the UK ceases exports on the 1st of November.
Not only to the EU, but everywhere else as well.
As I said, we'll take a look see in the middle of November, if we're not in the grip of starvation by then and outside
the door resembles a scene from Escape from New York.

The point was that trade would be significantly diminished, which it quite obviously will be if we’re going onto WTO terms with no trade agreements agreed.

You saying this is just my opinion is like saying jumping out of an airplane at 40,000, without a parachute and death being imminent, is just an opinion.

 

[mcfc1632]

Considering 5 years ago Scotland voted to stay in the UK, more comfortably than the Brexit vote and now every poll has had a 10% swing in the other direction since Brexit, I cannot fathom how you can type that with a straight face.

Hmm - think it through then

Because my face is indeed straight

 

[Len Rum]

The point was that trade would be significantly diminished, which it quite obviously will be if we’re going onto WTO terms with no trade agreements agreed.

You saying this is just my opinion is like saying jumping out of an airplane at 40,000, without a parachute and death being imminent, is just an opinion.

Correct.
You see @Ancient Citizen we got there in the end.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

The point was that trade would be significantly diminished, which it quite obviously will be if we’re going onto WTO terms with no trade agreements agreed.

You saying this is just my opinion is like saying jumping out of an airplane at 40,000, without a parachute and death being imminent, is just an opinion.

I'm not referring to your opinion, I'm referring to your qualified statements, which, after a few minutes
reflection, are now starting to bite a tad, there is already furious back peddling, we're now onto 'Significantly diminished'
which makes it even more amusing.
This is why all the scare mongering pre referendum was ignored, the exact opposite to what was forecast came to pass.
Anyway, roll on November.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Correct.
You see @Ancient Citizen we got there in the end.

Not yet, but we will in a few months;)

 

[Ban-jani]

I'm not referring to your opinion, I'm referring to your qualified statements, which, after a few minutes
reflection, are now starting to bite a tad, there is already furious back peddling, we're now onto 'Significantly diminished'
which makes it even more amusing.
This is why all the scare mongering pre referendum was ignored, the exact opposite to what was forecast came to pass.
Anyway, roll on November.

Seriously, what the fuck are you on about?

“Significantly diminished” was the specific phrase you quoted in the first place.

Ban-jani said: ↑
“Setting up our own trade deals” - trade will be diminished significantly and we trade freely with major markets all around the world through the EU, who act on our behalf and to our benefit in this area. We’re about to see how much we’ve fucked up in this area.

Ancient Citizen said:
Saying that 'Trade will be diminished significantly' is simply an opinion, it assumes that this country is totally emasculated
without being in the EU, which is, just an opinion.

You literally said it’s an opinion, I’m pointing out how it obviously isn’t.

Now, anything else you want to totally embarrass yourself with?

 

[Ban-jani]

Hmm - think it through then

Because my face is indeed straight

Remain isn’t more likely to make Scotland leave the UK is it? When we were set to stay in the EU they voted to stay, now we’re set to leave, they want to go.

How is this simple fact not registering?

 

[Saddleworth2]

It most certainly is crap, as the parameters set by the UN are ridiculous, anyone suggesting that 40% of children
in the UK are living in poverty is talking claptrap, the UN has been debunked on this issue some time ago.
Anyway, back to the glorious EU;)

Hi Amber,
Just to be helpful, this is a extract from fact checker regarding method of calculating poverty. The 14m roughly equates to the Governments own figures. The child poverty rates from the U.N. were 2021 projections on the basis that current increases continue. Whatever measure you take 14m out of 65m is still pretty bloody poor. The U.K. also has the biggest gap between top earners and low earners in the EU.



The definition used by a number of international organisations (such as the UN and the World Bank) is that you cannot afford the basic needs of life—food, clothing, shelter and so on.

A new way of measuring poverty
One of the most comprehensive measures of poverty on offer at the moment is produced by the Social Metrics Commission (SMC). The SMC is an independent group of experts who have been working to improve the way we understand and measure poverty in the UK, and last autumn published their first estimates.

They found that in 2016/17:

• An estimated 14.2 million people in a family in poverty in the UK
• 8.4 million are working-age adults, 4.5 million are children, and 1.4 million are of pension age
• Around 22% of the public are in poverty, and nearly 33% of children
• 58% of those in poverty are in “persistent poverty” (people who would also have fallen below the poverty line in at least two of the last three years). This is as of 2015/16
• Working-age people in poverty are increasingly likely to be in working families
• Most poverty rates aren’t all that different to what they were at the start of the 2000s. The most marked reduction has been in pensioner poverty, it is almost half as common as it was back in 2000, while rates for working-age adults are now slightly higher
• Poverty rates fell in the years after 2010, as the UK recovered from the financial crisis, but are now showing clear signs of rising again

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

The point was that trade would be significantly diminished, which it quite obviously will be if we’re going onto WTO terms with no trade agreements agreed.

You saying this is just my opinion is like saying jumping out of an airplane at 40,000, without a parachute and death being imminent, is just an opinion.

I actually agree with you that the short to medium term financial consequences of brexit will be negative. The problem is that like so many remain people, you take this and exaggerate it for effect with examples like this plane/parachute silliness and discredit what is otherwise a good argument. It always puzzles me how Mr Osbornes dire predictions were apparently offset by 'mitigating measures', but such measures are apparently not available in the event of brexit.

 

[bluethrunthru]

And leave voters think they’re in dad’s army.

"don't panic " - ( had to be done lol )

 

[BobKowalski]

No, according to Ban nothing is slightly wrong, it all finishes on 1 Nov.
Everything.
To everywhere.
Remainers are always right, they have been right all along, have they not?
One of us is going to look a right dipstick in a few months, get your bets on now.

Ok it’s very simple. You put up trade barriers to goods and services then trade will be reduced. US and China have put up trade barriers and guess what? Trade has been reduced, US consumers have been ‘taxed’ via their own self imposed tariffs and the US Govt is subsiding US farmers to the tune of billions of dollars.

We are interconnected with the EU economy via supply lines for food and parts. Put up barriers and these supply lines will be disrupted leading to problems and shortages. The general public are concerned but not worried because we have an unshakable faith that somehow it will either be ‘sorted out - details tba’ or if it isn’t that supermarket shelves will still be full because they always are. The Govts big worry is once that ‘unshakeable faith’ disappears they are going to get the blame big time. The Govt will also know that this country lost its shit when KFC ran out of chicken because KFC tinkered with the supply lines. Lesson is that you don’t mess with supply lines unless you have to and on 31st October we don’t have to.

As the clock ticks down the Govt will be fighting on many fronts. The EU, the Scots, the Irish, the Welsh, the major cities in England, CBI, industry and farming lobbies and Parliament. The French control the chokepoint of Dover. And your gamble, should you choose to accept it, is to pitch the U.K. out of the EU via an executive elected by a privileged few and with no mandate to do so via a public vote. Good luck.

 

[west didsblue]

I actually agree with you that the short to medium term financial consequences of brexit will be negative. The problem is that like so many remain people, you take this and exaggerate it for effect with examples like this plane/parachute silliness and discredit what is otherwise a good argument. It always puzzles me how Mr Osbornes dire predictions were apparently offset by 'mitigating measures', but such measures are apparently not available in the event of brexit.

That's right. We should be considering a 150 year time frame like 1632 did.

In - say - a 150 years from now the UK wanted to make some self- determination with regard key policies - should the UK not be allowed to because of the GFA?