Another new Brexit thread

[west didsblue]

Same as NI? Maybe giving Gibraltar back to Spain and NI back to Eire is the only way forward.

The fact that you refer to the Republic of Ireland as Eire suggests that you have little clue about current affairs from the last 40 years.

 

[west didsblue]

The end game for the No Deal wankers if they get their way will be the end of the UK, an independent Scotland, an independent or unified NI, probably an independent Wales (or a confederation with Scotland), a Spanish Gibraltar, an American Bermuda, Ascension, Diego Garcia and UK Caribbean territories, an Argentinian Falklands and a standalone England with a big queue of people looking to emigrate. We might get to keep the Pitcairn Islands if we're lucky. That is not what they will want but it is what we will eventually get over the next 10 years imo.

 

[BobKowalski]

From Gutteridge in the Sun (yeah I know but the journo is good) idea of limiting the backstop to livestock and agricultural produce which is about 80% of the trade is being kicked about. Will mean enhanced checks between NI and GB which will annoy the DUP but it makes sense.

Can it get past ERG Tories and DUP? Unlikely and it’s by no means a given the EU go for it but if the U.K. could guarantee the WA passing with a revised backstop then I think they will swallow it as it then gives us four years or so of transition to work with.

 

[cibaman]

From Gutteridge in the Sun (yeah I know but the journo is good) idea of limiting the backstop to livestock and agricultural produce which is about 80% of the trade is being kicked about. Will mean enhanced checks between NI and GB which will annoy the DUP but it makes sense.

Can it get past ERG Tories and DUP? Unlikely and it’s by no means a given the EU go for it but if the U.K. could guarantee the WA passing with a revised backstop then I think they will swallow it as it then gives us four years or so of transition to work with.

How could Johnson guarantee it would pass? It would surely need the support of quite a few Labour MPs which he couldn’t guarantee

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

From Gutteridge in the Sun (yeah I know but the journo is good) idea of limiting the backstop to livestock and agricultural produce which is about 80% of the trade is being kicked about. Will mean enhanced checks between NI and GB which will annoy the DUP but it makes sense.

Can it get past ERG Tories and DUP? Unlikely and it’s by no means a given the EU go for it but if the U.K. could guarantee the WA passing with a revised backstop then I think they will swallow it as it then gives us four years or so of transition to work with.

Why are you saying it needs to get past the erg.

All that needs to happen is for labour to vote in favour of any deal and it gets through .

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

The fact that you refer to the Republic of Ireland as Eire suggests that you have little clue about current affairs from the last 40 years.

Indeed. You however seem to be an expert on everything with perhaps the exception of interpersonal skills.off you pop.

 

[cibaman]

Why are you saying it needs to get past the erg.

All that needs to happen is for labour to vote in favour of any deal and it gets through .

Yes, but how could Johnson guarantee that? The Tory whips might be able to assess the support of Tory MPs but unless Corbyn came out in support, it would be guesswork as to the overall numbers. Would Corbyn support it?

 

[George Hannah]

Hang on, are you saying zee Germans are going to bully Ireland into backing down on the border or that they're going to bully England into remaining? I can't keep up here...

Although they could and would without a second thought if it benefited them, the EU won't be changing its instructions to Ireland about the border as long as their allies in the HoP remain obedient. I have been pointing this out on these threads for months, years even.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

From Gutteridge in the Sun (yeah I know but the journo is good) idea of limiting the backstop to livestock and agricultural produce which is about 80% of the trade is being kicked about. Will mean enhanced checks between NI and GB which will annoy the DUP but it makes sense.

Can it get past ERG Tories and DUP? Unlikely and it’s by no means a given the EU go for it but if the U.K. could guarantee the WA passing with a revised backstop then I think they will swallow it as it then gives us four years or so of transition to work with.

I suspect this is in the ball park of where things are headed. The parliamentary arithmetic for such a revision to the WA looks good, unless of course those who have been declaring the backstop as the only barrier to them voting for it are not being truthful. We'll only know if a modified WA makes it to the vote I suppose.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Yes, but how could Johnson guarantee that? The Tory whips might be able to assess the support of Tory MPs but unless Corbyn came out in support, it would be guesswork as to the overall numbers. Would Corbyn support it?

Well he has said he would do anything to prevent no deal .

Anything but voting in favour of a deal I expect

The erg is a small number of nutter tories there is a loadof other Tory mps who will vote in favour. The vast majority of the tories voting and vast majority of labour and its through

 

[BobKowalski]

Why are you saying it needs to get past the erg.

All that needs to happen is for labour to vote in favour of any deal and it gets through .

A Johnson Tory Govt relies on Labour MPs to pass a WA with a revised backstop with hostile Tories, DUP and an outraged Brexit Party accusing Johnson of betraying Brexit and selling us into ‘EU vassalage’. Call me sceptical but not seeing what’s in it for Johnson or the Tory Party as a whole. They would get wiped out.

 

[mcfc1632]

They’re not sharing any information though are they, other than “it’ll be fine”.

They could simplify it but they won’t because what’s coming is going to be very shit.

More importantly I hope that they are keeping a lot back and that no-deal preparations are now top priority.

The government did not start such planning in earnest until early summer 2018 and it was not top priority

Should have been since July 2016

Either way important information should not be shared with the sycophants

 

[cibaman]

Well he has said he would do anything to prevent no deal .

Anything but voting in favour of a deal I expect

The erg is a small number of nutter tories there is a loadof other Tory mps who will vote in favour. The vast majority of the tories voting and vast majority of labour and its through

The only way that Johnson can guarantee that a revised WA would go through would be if he pre cleared it with Corbyn. Johnson simply wouldn’t know how many Labour MPs would defy a whipped vote against it. I can’t see any circumstances where Johnson would engage in such a dialogue with Corbyn

 

[George Hannah]

I suspect this is in the ball park of where things are headed. The parliamentary arithmetic for such a revision to the WA looks good, unless of course those who have been declaring the backstop as the only barrier to them voting for it are not being truthful. We'll only know if a modified WA makes it to the vote I suppose.

The endgame is sadly predictable I believe, an early September election immediately following either A50 revocation or an extension with a compulsory referendum.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

The only way that Johnson can guarantee that a revised WA would go through would be if he pre cleared it with Corbyn. Johnson simply wouldn’t know how many Labour MPs would defy a whipped vote against it. I can’t see any circumstances where Johnson would engage in such a dialogue with Corbyn

Well let’s hope he does as none of us want no deal do we ? Apparently

 

[Metal Biker]

Well let’s hope he does as none of us want no deal do we ? Apparently

Deal or no deal, anything as long as it ends the saga and we can move on.

 

[west didsblue]

Deal or no deal, anything as long as it ends the saga and we can move on.

No Deal won't end the saga. It will be the start of the next part of the saga that will last years.

 

[Ban-jani]

More importantly I hope that they are keeping a lot back and that no-deal preparations are now top priority.

The government did not start such planning in earnest until early summer 2018 and it was not top priority

Should have been since July 2016

Either way important information should not be shared with the sycophants

You can’t prepare enough for no deal, despite all the bluffing the delusionals like you believe.


No deal means US Congress blocks a trade agreement.

Do you know that?

 

[Ban-jani]

You really do have this entirely wrong - and have for many months

1. You and everyone that has the interests of the UK as a priority should not want the backstop - it is not just a question of Johnson not wanting it. It is a contrivance that will keep the UK shackled to the EU for decades to come - true vassal state status.

and an entirely separate issue is:

2. That no-deal is needed to get the EU to the table seems to be outside the grasp of quite a few on here to understand. The issue is having the integrity to implement the result of the referendum or not. Once you decide to do so then you need to prepare for your ideal, realistic and fallback outcomes - as part of establishing your fallback (least attractive) you simply must prepare for No-Deal because the reality is that you cannot force the other party to the table and you may end up having to leave because a deal cannot be done. You then manage the arrangements robustly - it is simple management of negotiations and implementation.

It is blindingly obvious that the UK may not force the EU towards a better (realistic) outcome - but you have a damn sight more chance if the other party can see that you ae indeed able and willing to implement your fallback position. The thing is that there has been an issue of integrity with regards to implementing the result of the referendum - my May and the many EU sycophants. The EU has been supported and the UK undermined during the negotiations due to the level of abject sycophancy that the EU has been able to observe.

But that lack of integrity, strength of will and basic management capability does not detract from simple and basic methods of managing negotiations and the implementation of change programmes.

I can’t be arsed replying to you. You keep posting the same stuff despite being proved wrong time and time again.

I don’t like the backstop and it’s dead anyway.

No deal hasn’t forced the EU to the table, they’re standing firm as it doesn’t affect them as much as us.

We told you this and you didn’t believe it.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

I can’t be arsed replying to you. You keep posting the same stuff despite being proved wrong time and time again.

I don’t like the backstop and it’s dead anyway.

No deal hasn’t forced the EU to the table, they’re standing firm as it doesn’t affect them as much as us.

We told you this and you didn’t believe it.

I don't suppose any of us actually know or can really prove anything tbh. All just conjecture based on what we think /feel, and it seems everyone on both sides is just 'posting the same stuff' in the absence of anything new. We just go round in circles cherry picking bits and bobs from our own echo chambers to suit our views. It seems most of us are dicks, and at least this thread serves the purpose of herding us into the one place and leaving the rest of the forum a better place.