Another new Brexit thread

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If you say so

I hope you are not doing that thing, you know against FOM equals against immigration. If you can find a quote where he says he would stop all immigration I will retract.
I said immigration not all immigration. He's quite happy with elite immigrants.....

"Immigration is like a Ponzi scheme – as they’re coming in the economy grows and GDP is growing but actually GDP per capita has been dropping. We’ve been taking in too many unskilled people – and when they stop working, it will come back to whack us."

And from what stats I can see, he was wrong/lying about GDP per capita dropping.


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I said immigration not all immigration. He's quite happy with elite immigrants.....

"Immigration is like a Ponzi scheme – as they’re coming in the economy grows and GDP is growing but actually GDP per capita has been dropping. We’ve been taking in too many unskilled people – and when they stop working, it will come back to whack us."

And from what stats I can see, he was wrong/lying about GDP per capita dropping.


.

As you know if someone says he is against immigration that will be taken as against immigration full stop unless a further clarification is added, which you didn’t do. It is in fairness a well known path trodden by remainers.

As far as stats are concerned using them for immigration has always been worthless imho, and that works for both sides.

I Think our whole system of economics is a Ponzi scheme
 
I said immigration not all immigration. He's quite happy with elite immigrants.....

"Immigration is like a Ponzi scheme – as they’re coming in the economy grows and GDP is growing but actually GDP per capita has been dropping. We’ve been taking in too many unskilled people – and when they stop working, it will come back to whack us."

And from what stats I can see, he was wrong/lying about GDP per capita dropping.


.

We actually need a mixture of skilled and unskilled as there are jobs at all levels that need filling and it’s quite often entry level jobs that suffer in certain areas, with a lack of candidates.

I’m not for complete freedom of movement. I believe it’s worked as well as it can in the EU but there are downsides, such as a strain on infrastructure if huge numbers continue to come. That said as everyone knows I think our EU membership is incredibly beneficial to the country.

He is also lying about GDP dropping per capita. A simple well-known fact is immigrants contribute more to the economy than indigenous Brits, specifically EU nationals. That’s not to say millions a year is a good thing as our infrastructure would collapse, as I say.
 
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Now this is all very complicated and after a brief read the conclusion is migrant workers are less likely to claim whole benefits but more likely to claim in work benefits which is logical. Now as most of us don’t contribute net to the state then low paid migrants won’t either. Also there is no mention of infrastructure. It seems the contribution is + or - a billion or 2. Or not paying off the DUP or agreeing to HS2.(probably about 50 yrs of migrant benefits to pay for that)

Strangely enough it does mention saving on education costs but doesn’t subtract the cost of money lost from educating kids that then work in Europe. Now this is only a couple of minutes research and it does seem that some quote the revenues from migrants but not the expenditure. Remainers perhaps?

I could even throw in the effects of wage suppression, the fact a job a migrant gets that may have gone to someone already here. That person would have got a pay rise. It’s almost impossible to get a true figure. So let’s take a billion quid one way or another.

I think skilled immigration would bump that figure up. So once we add inflation population added infrastructure, the enviroment, house shortages,rents etc all for a billion or a loss of a billion you have to ask

This utopian plan by the politicians to brag about gdp seems like a Ponzi scheme to me.

For these reasons and environmental ones I don’t see FOM as a benefit. It’s where I’m at. It’s always been a numbers game for me and leavers have had plenty of flak about immigration.

It was the first facts I came across no trawling involved promise.
 
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I think the fracturing has a lot to do with the DUP who never wanted it and are propping up your Government.
They vote with when it suits and against when it doesn't.

I've nothing against the UK as a whole having whatever driving force they wish to leave the EU.
My one gripe with it all is that the UK was already in an agreement with us that quite obviously was going to be an issue.
No-one over there paid it a thought. Farage? Rees-Mogg? Boris? They don't give a damn.
Whatever chance you may have had addressing this issue first before a referendum, I can't think of anything worse than any Tory government negotiating the GFA and NI/Ireland under the circumstances of the domestic party-political mess they've created.
Aided and abetted I might add by the rest of your parliament. The opposition seem to be playing the same party-political game.
Britain in general has never considered Ireland as an equal partner in anything.

I know your opinion @mcfc1632 and you are committed and entitled to it. I just can't see how any Irish government could take any other stance than the one we have.
Anything else would not be the will of the vast majority of the republic and a considerable few in the North I would wager.

The DUP scuppered whatever chance you had of compromise on a backstop. They have their own insidious agenda (to use one of your words).
They were the tail wagging the dog. The dog having fleas is purely incidental.

I understand and can agree with your statement:

"I know your opinion @mcfc1632 and you are committed and entitled to it. I just can't see how any Irish government could take any other stance than the one we have."

But the/any UK government can/should not allow the situation to hold the UK in a straightjacket for decades and remove from the UK the sovereign right to determine and implement its own policies and decisions of its population
 
That's the great thing about democracy - it's incredibly honest. .

Democracy may be a great thing, but incredibly honest it is not. Democracy is flawed but it is the least worst system we have yet come up with.

The referendum was incredibly flawed and dishonest, because it allowed both sides plenty of poetic licence and due to incompetence it provided a result that actually proved nothing, it gave no majority because not everybody voted. That is an inherent flaw of democracy because the power of not voting is negative power not positive power. A true democratic mandate should be 50% + 1 and then no argument can be made to the contrary because that mythical "will of the people" will have been truly expressed.

There is also the issue of using direct democracy in a system that uses representative democracy, they are incompatible and due to our lack of written constitution open to interpretation as we have witnessed since the result was announced. There was no clear winner. As much as leavers and remainers argue about the point, it is a fact that neither has a truly democratic mandate. I didn't vote because I believed the referendum to be flawed from the beginning, that is my right to exercise my negative power as there is no recourse for me doing so.

We now face a situation where a minority of the electorate are using our flawed system to dictate to the majority. That is not incredibly honest democracy that is a sham and it makes a mockery of the term "will of the people"

It is the incompetence and arrogance of Cameron and Osborne that have put us into this situation, they assumed they would win the day and instead of using some sort of qualitive measure to ensure democracy did reflect the mythical "will of the people" it has caused division that may take generations to heal.

Saying all that and with all its flaws the result now must be respected, the problem is because there was not 50% + 1 of the whole electorate in favour we are now in the situation of interpretation of the result. This process is because of our inherently dishonest flawed democracy and frankly the good people of the UK deserve better than the farce we have ended up with. A clear mandate would have rendered all arguments against the result null and void, but because of the flaws and dishonest democracy we used those arguments will continue for decades.
 
Actually the current one does, provided alternative solutions have been found.
The EU, aided and abetted by Varadkar and his replacements, will not find any alternative solutions - no matter how effective - acceptable for decades if we are stupid enough to sign a WA with an unfettered backstop

It is a cynical contrivance dressed up to appear essential and noble - when it is neither

Fuck - it is quite sad how many Remainers support it simply because it appears to be disliked by the Leave supporters. They fail to recognise that they actively support committing the UK to significant harm for decades to come - it appears that there really are none so blind.....
 
There was never a time when the EU would agree to let us out, it's not in their interest. Their 'deal' is and has always been just a crash out after a two year delay for their own better preparation and economic realignment.
Spot on - and that is why the 'alternative arrangements' will continue to be unacceptable until such preparations are complete and any consequential damage is mitigated and therefore it is no longer necessary to keep the UK shackled as the threat of an independent UK on the shores of the EU will have been neutered

What utter fuckwits Robbins and May were
 
The EU, aided and abetted by Varadkar and his replacements, will not find any alternative solutions - no matter how effective - acceptable for decades if we are stupid enough to sign a WA with an unfettered backstop

It is a cynical contrivance dressed up to appear essential and noble - when it is neither

Fuck - it is quite sad how many Remainers support it simply because it appears to be disliked by the Leave supporters. They fail to recognise that they actively support committing the UK to significant harm for decades to come - it appears that there really are none so blind.....

They see it as equally politically unacceptable but a route that leads to revocation hence their support.

Any port in a storm...
 
Democracy may be a great thing, but incredibly honest it is not. Democracy is flawed but it is the least worst system we have yet come up with.

The referendum was incredibly flawed and dishonest, because it allowed both sides plenty of poetic licence and due to incompetence it provided a result that actually proved nothing, it gave no majority because not everybody voted. That is an inherent flaw of democracy because the power of not voting is negative power not positive power. A true democratic mandate should be 50% + 1 and then no argument can be made to the contrary because that mythical "will of the people" will have been truly expressed.

There is also the issue of using direct democracy in a system that uses representative democracy, they are incompatible and due to our lack of written constitution open to interpretation as we have witnessed since the result was announced. There was no clear winner. As much as leavers and remainers argue about the point, it is a fact that neither has a truly democratic mandate. I didn't vote because I believed the referendum to be flawed from the beginning, that is my right to exercise my negative power as there is no recourse for me doing so.

We now face a situation where a minority of the electorate are using our flawed system to dictate to the majority. That is not incredibly honest democracy that is a sham and it makes a mockery of the term "will of the people"

It is the incompetence and arrogance of Cameron and Osborne that have put us into this situation, they assumed they would win the day and instead of using some sort of qualitive measure to ensure democracy did reflect the mythical "will of the people" it has caused division that may take generations to heal.

Saying all that and with all its flaws the result now must be respected, the problem is because there was not 50% + 1 of the whole electorate in favour we are now in the situation of interpretation of the result. This process is because of our inherently dishonest flawed democracy and frankly the good people of the UK deserve better than the farce we have ended up with. A clear mandate would have rendered all arguments against the result null and void, but because of the flaws and dishonest democracy we used those arguments will continue for decades.
+ tools now exist to identify individuals that are ‘undecided’ and bombard them with lies utilising social media. That can be done with such precision that it is a game changer. Cambridge Analytica proved that. How can there be a free and fair vote in future elections anyware unless this is addressed. Excellent post by the way @Rascal
 
Spot on - and that is why the 'alternative arrangements' will continue to be unacceptable until such preparations are complete and any consequential damage is mitigated and therefore it is no longer necessary to keep the UK shackled as the threat of an independent UK on the shores of the EU will have been neutered

What utter fuckwits Robbins and May were


'Shackled' ? ...... you need help mate.
 
+ tools now exist to identify individuals that are ‘undecided’ and bombard them with lies utilising social media. That can be done with such precision that it is a game changer. Cambridge Analytica proved that. How can there be a free and fair vote in future elections anyware unless this is addressed. Excellent post by the way @Rascal
Thanks mate, it is my honest appraisal of democracy, it was not meant to be skewed in favour of any position but you make a very valid point. Democracy can be hijacked and subverted by nefarious means and therein lies the dishonesty. Hayek stated freedom was the lack of coercion, therefore the coercion used by the likes of Cambridge analytica is anti freedom and anti democratic.

The sad outcome of the whole Brexit debate is not the result, it is the negative effects it is having on our democracy.
 
And the huge division it has opened up in our society.

I'd argue these division existed since and possibly were invented by the Tory/New Labour Governments in the 1990s. As post-manufacturing Britain took hold, we started to develop a have/have-nots between the middle and lower classes and Brexit and the other societal turmoil we find ourselves in is in part a consequence of this.
 
Spot on - and that is why the 'alternative arrangements' will continue to be unacceptable until such preparations are complete and any consequential damage is mitigated and therefore it is no longer necessary to keep the UK shackled as the threat of an independent UK on the shores of the EU will have been neutered

What utter fuckwits Robbins and May were
What a refreshing change to have a decent communicator at the helm, the alternative arrangements for the border are all perfectly reasonable and achievable given a decent transistional period and good will on both sides. I think the next move is for Boris to explain this to the public so that he can pin the blame on the EU if his plan is rejected, plus it buys some more time because a vote of no confidence in a PM whilst he’s so visibly trying to agree a deal would be a huge mistake imo. Boris has made an excellent start, expect to see a shift in the opinion polls coming soon.
 
Democracy may be a great thing, but incredibly honest it is not. Democracy is flawed but it is the least worst system we have yet come up with.

I think we're talking about different facets when we say democracy is honest/dishonest. My view is that in a non-coerced democratic system then whoever wins can claim a mandate of majority of the electorate. They might have lied to get that mandate and that's a different matter altogether but the point is that democratic results are generally incontestable.

The referendum was incredibly flawed and dishonest, because it allowed both sides plenty of poetic licence and due to incompetence it provided a result that actually proved nothing, it gave no majority because not everybody voted. That is an inherent flaw of democracy because the power of not voting is negative power not positive power. A true democratic mandate should be 50% + 1 and then no argument can be made to the contrary because that mythical "will of the people" will have been truly expressed.

Really though that's more a flaw of how we manage our elections rather than inherently built into a democratic system. A "None of the Above" type vote could cure this issue.
More to the point though, the fact that everybody didn't vote isn't in itself a problem or a message. Maybe they didn't care? Maybe they didn't want to? Maybe maybe maybe? Like with anything you can only gauge the opinions of those who are willing to share them and it's perfectly legitimate on principle that some people do not wish to vote.
I agree that there needs to be a positive option in any democratic choice and this is a problem at the present time.

There is also the issue of using direct democracy in a system that uses representative democracy, they are incompatible and due to our lack of written constitution open to interpretation as we have witnessed since the result was announced. There was no clear winner. As much as leavers and remainers argue about the point, it is a fact that neither has a truly democratic mandate. I didn't vote because I believed the referendum to be flawed from the beginning, that is my right to exercise my negative power as there is no recourse for me doing so.

I don't personally believe direct and representative democracy are incompatible with each other. I'm sure you know Switzerland manage it pretty well. I'd argue that the problem inherent in our system is that there's not ENOUGH democracy. Democracy are like goals in football - if something is going wrong then it can always be cured by more democracy. In the days of speed of light worldwide communication, streaming media, and Google, representative democracy such as what we have is badly formed and somewhat out of date.

I think I'd like to see a mixed system one day where we have almost complete direct democracy but instead vote for local representatives to inform us of the ins and outs of issues. If we don't trust them or we've found they're lying or giving us out of context information as we'd find during debates then we'd kick them out and elect a new person. Representation in democracy should be used to save people time, it should not be used as some mythical ideal of "voting on behalf of me". I don't need anyone to vote on my behalf, I need people to carefully summate legislation in a short form (expanding into greater detail on request) so that I can vote on it myself. Representative democracy in the 21st century should be advisors to a direct democracy that we elect.
I can have a news application on my phone that tells me in real time when American singer Miley Cyrus has broken up with her boyfriend in Tunisia but I can't have this?

We now face a situation where a minority of the electorate are using our flawed system to dictate to the majority. That is not incredibly honest democracy that is a sham and it makes a mockery of the term "will of the people"

It is the incompetence and arrogance of Cameron and Osborne that have put us into this situation, they assumed they would win the day and instead of using some sort of qualitive measure to ensure democracy did reflect the mythical "will of the people" it has caused division that may take generations to heal.

The issue here though is that whilst you claim it's the minority of the electorate, we don't actually know that. We can't presume that all non-voters wanted to Remain or Leave. What we CAN presume though is that using statistics, the people who voted represented a fair and unbiased representation of the electorate. No different than how we can tell large scale opinions based on small polls.

Saying all that and with all its flaws the result now must be respected, the problem is because there was not 50% + 1 of the whole electorate in favour we are now in the situation of interpretation of the result. This process is because of our inherently dishonest flawed democracy and frankly the good people of the UK deserve better than the farce we have ended up with. A clear mandate would have rendered all arguments against the result null and void, but because of the flaws and dishonest democracy we used those arguments will continue for decades.

To me I don't think that's the issue. I think that even if it ended 60/40 we'd still see the same furore as is going on now. Ultimately, many Leave voters feel that there is a metropolitan liberal elite class that dictates to them what they can do or not do, what is good for them or not; using their channels of the mainstream media, social media, educational facilities, etc, etc. Whether that is true or not is irrelevant, it only matters whether a significant amount of people think that it is. And I think they do. I think that politicians and journalists and commentators have generally gotten away from the opinions of the "man in the pub" and he doesn't feel that they are on "his side". They are Other to him. This is also why Tommy Robinson has done so well - he looks and sounds like an actual human being, you could imagine having a conversation with him in a pub or on the train or whatever.

People are tribal, it is built into us for better or worse. White people generally vote for white people, asians generally vote for asians, black people generally vote for black people within the caveats of reasonable political disagreement and choice. We might not like that that is true, we might try to justify it for hundreds of different reasons but we cannot argue against the very documented fact that it is true. Race is tribal. Obviously not just race; working class people want to vote for working class people, upper class people want to vote for upper class people, City fans want to vote for City fans; the more tribes we share with a person directly correlates to our desire to vote for them almost no matter what their politics. Which is mental when you think about it. I've spent a long time wrestling with whether this is down to arrogance or anxiety and I still can't answer it.

The point in this being, what we're seeing with Brexit is a phase in an ongoing culture war in the UK. The days of the miner unionist working classes are now gone. The "dignity" of the working classes is gone. The working classes now consist of what many people term as chavs or doleys or immigrants or scumbags. People sometimes euphemistically call these an underclass because they don't want to lump them in with the working class monikor which they've taken silent pride in for so long. But ultimately we have to ask if these people are politically represented in any arena at all outside extremists such as Robinson? I don't feel they are. Certainly not in the Labour Party, everybody there looks like they are more at home at a dinner party than a pill popping knees up down at Wigan Pier or a day spent reading the paper in the bookies watching the horses come in.

I'd argue that a significant amount of historical strife culturally has come down to a simplistic and single idea of representation. When people don't feel represented in the decision making process then they will rebel, sometimes politically but sometimes violently. Remain-Leave is just a battleground in this war when really most of the people who are married to their designated box could better communicate by the Leave guy saying "I feel like you think you're better than me" and the Remain guy saying to the Leave voter "I feel like you aren't seriously considering the impact on people in your decisions".

Until the so called underclass is represented, we will have this cultural war going on and people will vote for the opposite of what the "comfy class" want them to out of sheer bloody mindedness.
 
I'd argue these division existed since and possibly were invented by the Tory/New Labour Governments in the 1990s. As post-manufacturing Britain took hold, we started to develop a have/have-nots between the middle and lower classes and Brexit and the other societal turmoil we find ourselves in is in part a consequence of this.
I fully accept the divisions were there before the referendum, and I don't believe the outcome of that vote made those divisions worse, per se, but rather the absence of any plan in place about how to effectuate it. Instead we've been in limbo ever since with no realistic plan to even begin to bridge those divisions - in actual fact, each respective side has become more entrenched in the last three years.

I believe this could have been substantially avoided.
 
What a refreshing change to have a decent communicator at the helm, the alternative arrangements for the border are all perfectly reasonable and achievable given a decent transistional period and good will on both sides. I think the next move is for Boris to explain this to the public so that he can pin the blame on the EU if his plan is rejected, plus it buys some more time because a vote of no confidence in a PM whilst he’s so visibly trying to agree a deal would be a huge mistake imo. Boris has made an excellent start, expect to see a shift in the opinion polls coming soon.

Define decent transitional time. A year? Three? Five? And all the while we are subject to EU rules and regs with no say. You think Farage, Brexiteers in the Tory ranks, the Brexit supporting media are not going to bang on about this morning, noon and night? Do you think any arrangements that could take years to develop are going to pass through Parliament? And what if we can’t get these arrangements to work? Do we come out of transition anyway? Is there a backstop as insurance against this happening?

As for goodwill. Leaving aside that there is precious little of this left you will need the buy in of the people of NI whose business lobby has already trashed the arrangements as cumbersome and imposing additional costs. So we take away a system that the people of NI like to impose a system they neither like nor voted for on firms and people many of whom situated in border counties which heavily vote for Sinn Fein and you reckon they will happily embrace this new way of doing things as ordered by the ‘Brits’? Good luck with that.
 
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