Another new Brexit thread

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cibaman said:
The problem with Johnson threatening No Deal is that it’s the preferred option for a large chunk of his party. His no deal rhetoric just ramps up the expectations for those who want no deal. Now that no deal is within their grasp, their opposition to a deal increases. Which means that if the eu were to actually offer a better deal it would be seen as a huge betrayal if he were to propose that it be accepted. He would never get it past his party. It’s feasible that he might get it through parliament relying on Labour votes, but then he would be toast.
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Which is why it looks to me like it’s heading towards a crash out.
 
hgblue said:
I fear this road leads to the rise of the far right in an attempt to defend the nation state. In fact, this is already happening across the EU today, and is one of the main reasons I voted to leave.
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It doesn't lead anywhere because it was never an option, sadly.

I happen to see the nation state as somewhat outdated, what i propose though is still nation states, albeit under a federal banner. The UK has been a unified state for centuries yet has seen no rise in the far right in Scotland and Wales, i grant you a small rise has been seen in England which i abhor but that has been linked more to brexit in my opinion as the opportunity for nationalism grew out of faux patriotism.

The other problem is the EU is not seen as democratic, so democratise it, be bold and open, have an EU President that everyone in the EU can cast a vote for. In the end Democracy has to triumph and we can not run in fear away from extremism we have to confront it and having a strong federal state can do that.
 
mancity2012_eamo said:
Which is why it looks to me like it’s heading towards a crash out.
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There aren’t the numbers in this Parliament for no deal to happen so it will be stopped via legislation or a vote of no confidence. However, Boris Johnson will win the election that follows imo.
 
Len Rum said:
Govester today on no deal Brexit. ' Everyone will have the food they need' (i.e. not what they want)
Sounds a bit chilling doesn't it - rationing anyone?
Notwithstanding possible very long term 'health' benefits what will this do to the businesses of restaurants,pubs,fast food retail outlets and the tourist industry generally since a basic level of supply/entitlement to food will presumably mean supplies will be diverted away from these non essential food outlets.
Not to mention the impact at the other end of the scale on foodbanks - if people only get what they need, will they still be willing/able to donate.
Gove also said there would not be a shortage of fresh food, a claim which was immediately rejected by the British retail consortium who have been warning about such shortages for three years and which seems an obvious outcome.
In other news Priti vacant's major policy of halting free movement post 31st October has been postponed.
What the fcuk is going on Jeff?
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No one ever said anything about restricting my Lobster Thermidor. Cameron you tit!
 
hgblue said:
I think it’s important that Remainers understand how their actions are being viewed by Leavers. Boris has said, and the vast majority of Leavers agree with him, that we need no deal to be on the table in order to encourage movement from the other side. So what are Remainers busy doing? Trying to tie his hands and removing that leverage from him.
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If they haven’t conceded this point by now they never will. Duplicitous sods.
 
hgblue said:
There aren’t the numbers in this Parliament for no deal to happen so it will be stopped via legislation or a vote of no confidence. However, Boris Johnson will win the election that follows imo.
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Very unlikely, he’ll lose the 13 Scottish seats, the brexit party will cost the tories more seats than it costs labour. Can’t see anything other than a hung parliament with only Labour being in a position to find a governing partner. The 10 or so DUP seats wont be enough for the tories, nobody else will work with them.
 
blueparrot said:
Very unlikely, he’ll lose the 13 Scottish seats, the brexit party will cost the tories more seats than it costs labour. Can’t see anything other than a hung parliament with only Labour being in a position to find a governing partner. The 10 or so DUP seats wont be enough for the tories, nobody else will work with them.
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Which is why Johnson keeps banging on about Corbyn.
The Tories know they could implode at anytime
 
hgblue said:
I think it’s important that Remainers understand how their actions are being viewed by Leavers. Boris has said, and the vast majority of Leavers agree with him, that we need no deal to be on the table in order to encourage movement from the other side. So what are Remainers busy doing? Trying to tie his hands and removing that leverage from him.
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It is also important that leavers understand the ramifications of supporting Johnson's anti democratic actions. I think a fair number of Leavers are appalled by Johnsons tactics in trying to force things through without parliamentary scrutiny. How is it possible to say you are taking back control of Parliament by nullifying Parliament? It is a real contradiction and in my opinion is rightfully being questioned.

I wish he would be honest and say, "this is a smoke screen I always intended to leave with no deal" rather than cause a constitutional crisis that could cause severe harm to our democracy. I can live with no deal, I just wish there was not all these smoke and mirrors clouding everything because it is becoming dangerous and he has almost made it a zero sum game that could quite easily end with severe consequences.

Johnson though is a narcissist and a liar who is more concerned about personal glory than the good of the nation.
 
blueparrot said:
Very unlikely, he’ll lose the 13 Scottish seats, the brexit party will cost the tories more seats than it costs labour. Can’t see anything other than a hung parliament with only Labour being in a position to find a governing partner. The 10 or so DUP seats wont be enough for the tories, nobody else will work with them.
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Have you seen the latest opinion polls?
 
blueparrot said:
Very unlikely, he’ll lose the 13 Scottish seats, the brexit party will cost the tories more seats than it costs labour. Can’t see anything other than a hung parliament with only Labour being in a position to find a governing partner. The 10 or so DUP seats wont be enough for the tories, nobody else will work with them.
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He'll have an election strategy based on a handful of falsehoods, simple clear messages and one simple negative message.

If you want an example, think of Trump.
Make America Great Again.
Build That Wall.
Lock her up.
America First.
Stop Mexican drugs and rapists.

It appeals to a large portion of the electorate who don't want a complicated argument full of truth and sense, as will probably be put forward by the opposition.
The GE will be won with 35-40% of the votes.

Boris will blame the EU and Corbyn for everything knowing that saying something simply and often enough means people will believe it (£350m per week).

Fake news is a deliberate strategy. Release lies that mean you can declare it as fake news and people start to believe that all news is lies (Boris as EU journalist famously lied constantly).

Depressing.
 
blueparrot said:
Very unlikely, he’ll lose the 13 Scottish seats, the brexit party will cost the tories more seats than it costs labour. Can’t see anything other than a hung parliament with only Labour being in a position to find a governing partner. The 10 or so DUP seats wont be enough for the tories, nobody else will work with them.
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I think we'll end up pretty much where we are now, albeit with plenty of seats changing hands - although in truth it's far too complicated to call with any degree of certainly, especially given the amount of tactical voting that will go on, through the prism of our spectacularly wank electoral system that likes to masquerade as a functioning democracy.
 
mcfc1632 said:
With respect - I do not know your experience in major negotiations - I certainly have quite a lot of experience.

Based on that experience I can state that you are describing a number of key principles of negotiation correctly - but really only as if you had recently read them in a ' Negotiation for Dummies' handbook and well out of kilter with practice of how you use those principles in managing negotiations

To be clear - I am referring to the series of handbooks - no barb

A Win - Lose deal is one that quickly ends up in termination and causes enormous dissatisfaction for one party.

The May WA is a massive win for the EU and a massive lose for the UK - so apply your principle to that and wonder how we got here. Barnier saying it is a lose - lose is utter bollocks and that is fucking obvious to anyone not firmly inserted up the EU arse.

They have been facing off against incompetence and have won hands down - of course they will not want to lose any of the hoard of benefits they have been allowed to secure.

It has been said that we will not see movement from the EU unless and until they face the possibility of a walk away option and the political will to use it.

That is another basic negotiation fact

This trade walk - away for trust is just pure sillines. Trust between which parties?

The EU are fronted by professional negotiators - are you saying that we should have confidence to simply 'trust' the other party to look after our interests in negotiations and just hand over all the levers to them. (spoiler - we did and got royally shafted)

Such a promise from the other side is not worth the paper that it is not written on - which is another basic tenet of negotiations.

And frankly Bob - your comments are evidenced as being - at best - inconsistent

Would you advocate that we just 'trust' the US to look after our interests and declare our willingness to accept whatever they draft?, what about China? " Japan? Etc.

You have made a lot of posts saying different

Frankly - what you say is detached from reality.
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The WA is a ‘lose’ for the EU as it is a step to removing the U.K. from the EU trading bloc and it is a ‘lose’ for the U.K. for the same reason. The WA deals with three issues one of which, the NI border, is a primary concern for one member state. The EU are not wild about the backstop and view it as a concession to the U.K. If the U.K. can’t live with the backstop then, as Johnson accepts, it is up to the U.K. to come up with an alternative that meets the approval of Brussels and more importantly Dublin.

Everything else is tucked away for us to enjoy a decade or two of future negotiations with the EU.

You pour scorn on May’s comms, messaging and overall strategy of confrontation and shouting at the EU to give us what we want whilst being ground down by the reality of what was available and your take away is not that we embarked on a doomed strategy of confrontation and shouting loudly but that we bent to reality and should have held out for more cake...in a document that only deals with three issues one of which is seen as existential to the island of Ireland and is now deemed non negotiable because Dublin no longer ‘trusts’ Britain to stick by its international commitments under the GFA.

And that lack of trust by Dublin and by the other leaders of the E27 is the final nail in the coffin. We either accept the WA, tarted up with a ribbon and a slap of paint if it helps, or we crash out.

There is nothing of substance left to negotiate. Johnson pledged to not talk to the EU until they dropped the backstop a stance that was met with approval on here, including yours, and yet three weeks later he is hotfooting around to Paris and Berlin with zero movement on the backstop. No one batted an eyelid at this U turn and yet you are still doubling down, or clinging too, this no deal strategy as if it was viable. You think the EU is going to move to accommodate a Govt that no longer has a majority to pass water let alone legislation and when everything it does drives a further wedge between the executive and Parliament?

No one, no matter who you are, is offering compromises to the side that advertises its weaknesses by shutting down Parliament and strengthening domestic opposition.
 
blueparrot said:
the brexit party will cost the tories more seats than it costs labour.
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I wouldn't count in that for one moment. Boris could hardly be doing more to please the Brexiteers in this country than he is doing. Vs Corbyn with his usual dithering, wavering between a 2nd referendum to cancel Brexit or an overt campaign to cancel Brexit. Who on earth who is committed to Brexit would vote for that???

Not to mention the fact that no-one in their right minds would vote for the twat anyway, and that at his absolute highest watermark, he failed to beat Theresa May and her worst election campaign in the history of campaigns ever.

No, Corbyn has absolutely no fucking chance of being the largest party nor of forming any kind of government. If this goes to a GE, then Boris will win it.
 
hgblue said:
I was being told that we could have a different relationship with the EU if we wanted one, and Cameron’s attempt at a re-negotiation proved that isn’t the case. We sign up to a federal Europe or we leave, and we voted to leave so that’s what should happen.
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We can have a different relationship. We did have a different relationship. But you can’t break the fundamental rules that hold it together. Which is what the Leave campaign was all about. Absenting ourselves from the rules but retaining the benefits and that is why three years later we have Ministers assuring us there will be enough food and urging us not to stockpile (yeah right).

Perhaps the problem is a) people lying about what is available and b) people believing those lies.
 
hgblue said:
I fear this road leads to the rise of the far right in an attempt to defend the nation state. In fact, this is already happening across the EU today, and is one of the main reasons I voted to leave.
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Brexit is championed by the far right so forgive if if I don’t applaud your principled stand.
 
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