Iran

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purplenose said:
If Saudi or the US can establish beyond doubt that those missiles were fired from Iran, and it seems pretty certain they were then Iran may have crossed the line.

It is hard to imagine that Saudi and or the US would not respond militarily. Whilst a full blown invasion of Iran would be just about impossible, air and missile strikes on Irans military would not be. Iran has a very poor air force and air defence system so these would be carried out with little risk of suffering many if any losses in doing so.

How would Iran react? They may try to close the straits of Hormuz in which case things could then get pretty serious as that would cerainly leave the Yanks no choice other than to go in heavy.

At some time in the not too distant future Iran is going to get hit, If the saudi/US dont see fit to go for them now the Israelis are going to clobber the Iranian nuclear programme the minute they think Iran is close to having nuclear weapons. Thats a scenario many fear and Iran may have given others an excuse to do that job before Israel does.

Iran have been pulling too many lions tails and that seldom ends well.
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The Saudi's and the US won't respond militarily because a war with Iran is a very bad thing for both. Iran has a strong military, it isn't Iraq or Afghanistan.

I would expect more sanctions to go in first, particularly from the EU and the rest of the international community who so far have stayed out of it. The US has a powerful lever over EU countries with respect to indirect pressure on European companies dealing with Iran.

The wildcard in all of this is Israel and if Iran get desperate and strike there then hell will break loose.
 
inbetween said:
The Saudi's and the US won't respond militarily because a war with Iran is a very bad thing for both. Iran has a strong military, it isn't Iraq or Afghanistan.

I would expect more sanctions to go in first, particularly from the EU and the rest of the international community who so far have stayed out of it. The US has a powerful lever over EU countries with respect to indirect pressure on European companies dealing with Iran.

The wildcard in all of this is Israel and if Iran get desperate and strike there then hell will break loose.
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Iran has a large but not well equipped military. Its air force might give North Koreas air force a good fight and thats about it.
War is never a good thing for anyone but when Iran continues to support and instigate attacks through the region, especially when it starts targetting the worlds oil supply there comes a time when the Saudi and Yanks will have to act.

The one restraining thing may well be the fact that the Saudi and Yank military have to be confident of keeping the straits of Hormuz open. That might not be so easy.
 
What would have been the UK governments reaction if a foreign power had launched a multi strike air raid on a large number of oil/fuel installations on the UK mainland.
e.g. Destroyed Milford Haven,Stanlow and Carrington amongst others.
Would the public demand that the government launch retaliatory air strikes against the attacking country.
Because that is basically what Iran has done to Saudi Arabia.
Also what is the point in Saudi Arabia spending huge amounts of money on sophisticated air defense systems and frontline fighters,that are defeated the first time they are subject to invasion of their airspace. Complete waste of money which makes them look very foolish.
 
manclad said:
What would have been the UK governments reaction if a foreign power had launched a multi strike air raid on a large number of oil/fuel installations on the UK mainland.
e.g. Destroyed Milford Haven,Stanlow and Carrington amongst others.
Would the public demand that the government launch retaliatory air strikes against the attacking country.
Because that is basically what Iran has done to Saudi Arabia.
Also what is the point in Saudi Arabia spending huge amounts of money on sophisticated air defense systems and frontline fighters,that are defeated the first time they are subject to invasion of their airspace. Complete waste of money which makes them look very foolish.
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They were pointing the wrong way!
 
manclad said:
What would have been the UK governments reaction if a foreign power had launched a multi strike air raid on a large number of oil/fuel installations on the UK mainland.
e.g. Destroyed Milford Haven,Stanlow and Carrington amongst others.
Would the public demand that the government launch retaliatory air strikes against the attacking country.
Because that is basically what Iran has done to Saudi Arabia.
Also what is the point in Saudi Arabia spending huge amounts of money on sophisticated air defense systems and frontline fighters,that are defeated the first time they are subject to invasion of their airspace. Complete waste of money which makes them look very foolish.
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Would the UK expect the US to fight that war for them?
 
I really don't see why the US needs to get involved here
Well other than the fact they have been desperate to go to war with Iran for a while
 
Iran has a very capable military. The IRGC is fully capable of closing the Persian Gulf indefinitely. If they chose, they could seize control of Saudi Arabia within days. What you see portrayed of Iran's military capability in the media is little more than western propaganda. The Saudi's don't even have a functioning army despite the billions they've spent. Iran can create an exclusion zone of 2000km from their border, significantly limiting the ability of the US to project power. They are capable of completely destroying all American bases in the region. They've been preparing for war with the US for decades. Every decision they make, every weapon they manufacture, is designed to wage asymmetric warfare against the Americans.

If the US was capable of winning a war with little cost then they would have done so long ago. The costs would be far too great and the outcome is far from certain. The Iranians are incrementally ramping up the pressure. The signal they are sending is clear: if we can't sell our oil then we'll make sure that nobody can sell their oil. You saw it first with the attack on the Emirati tankers. Then with the attack on the Aramco pumping station. Now by shutting down a significant portion of Aramco's production. They shot down a $200m drone with stealth and electronic warfare capabilities and they've demonstrated an ability to penetrate heavily defended areas. There will be more to come. Saudi Arabia will bear the direct costs, but there will be implications for the global economy.
 
manclad said:
What would have been the UK governments reaction if a foreign power had launched a multi strike air raid on a large number of oil/fuel installations on the UK mainland.
e.g. Destroyed Milford Haven,Stanlow and Carrington amongst others.
Would the public demand that the government launch retaliatory air strikes against the attacking country.
Because that is basically what Iran has done to Saudi Arabia.
Also what is the point in Saudi Arabia spending huge amounts of money on sophisticated air defense systems and frontline fighters,that are defeated the first time they are subject to invasion of their airspace. Complete waste of money which makes them look very foolish.
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Blowing up Carrington you say ? I could live with that ;-)
 
Homar said:
Iran has a very capable military. The IRGC is fully capable of closing the Persian Gulf indefinitely. If they chose, they could seize control of Saudi Arabia within days
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Stopped reading at this point when I realised you were smoking crack.
 
SWP's back said:
Stopped reading at this point when I realised you were smoking crack.
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You haven't a clue. I have seen Saudi Arabia's military with my own eyes. Their inability to defeat a ragtag militia in Yemen should not at all be surprising. Iran has carrier-killing ballistic missiles with 2,000km+ range. They have many midget submarines and supercavitating torpedos, specifically designed for the conditions in the Gulf. They can mine the strait. Go read about the Millennium Challenge war games.
 
manclad said:
That is the question I am asking. Would a Uk government take independent military action or would they expect it to be a NATO retaliatory action,as an attack on one NATO member is an attack on them all.
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The former. NATO did fuck all when sovereign territory was invaded by Argentina.
 
Homar said:
You haven't a clue. I have seen Saudi Arabia's military with my own eyes. Their inability to defeat a ragtag militia in Yemen should not at all be surprising. Iran has carrier-killing ballistic missiles with 2,000km+ range. They have many midget submarines and supercavitating torpedos, specifically designed for the conditions in the Gulf. They can mine the strait. Go read about the Millennium Challenge war games.
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The US could wipe Iran out in a month if they so wanted. And I speak as someone that wants all sides to stop being cûnts.

Trump started all this with his desperation to undo Obama’s Iran deal as he’s a childish moron.

As for Saudi being unable to defeat a rag tag militia, the US were unable to defeat the VC in Vietnam nor did they find it easy to defeat IS or remnants of the Taliban (from the air alone). Defeating a militia is entirely different to defending a homeland.
 
SWP's back said:
The US could wipe Iran out in a month if they so wanted. And I speak as someone that wants all sides to stop being cûnts.

Trump started all this with his desperation to undo Obama’s Iran deal as he’d a childish moron.

As for Saudi being unable to defeat a rag tag militia, the US were unable to defeat the VC in Vietnam nor did they find it easy to defeat IS or remnants of the Taliban (from the air alone). Defeating a militia is entirely different to defending a homeland.
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I think that the US might just have a better understanding of their own military capabilities and Iran's capabilities than yourself. In their own simulations, in which they chose all the conditions to suit the American side, they lost the war within days. Over twenty thousand servicemen killed and much of the US navy wiped out. The only way that the US can defeat Iran is through unrestrained use of nuclear weapons, killing millions of people and making much of the Middle East uninhabitable.
 
Homar said:
I think that the US might just have a better understanding of their own military capabilities and Iran's capabilities than yourself. In their own simulations, in which they chose all the conditions to suit the American side, they lost the war within days. Twenty thousand servicemen killed.
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Yeah I’m gonna need a link bud.
 
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