Iran

[Homar]

I read about that I think, didn't the US general playing the part of Iran use small boats strapped with bombs as suicide attack devices to plow into the US Navy or something?
My memory is a bit hazy

One of many extremely effective tactics used. Iran is the only state in the region that uses small speedboats armed with cruise missiles, which gives away the identity of the "potential adversary". Here is one of my favourite quotes:

The red team had struck a devastating blow against the blue team. The impact of the OPFOR’s ability to render a U.S. carrier battle group — the centerpiece of the U.S. Navy — militarily worthless stunned most of the MC ’02 participants. Van Riper described the mood as “an eerie silence. Like people didn’t really know what to do next.” Blue team leader Bell admitted that the OPFOR had “sunk my damn navy,” and had inflicted “an extremely high rate of attrition, and a disaster, from which we all learned a great lesson.”

 

[SWP's back]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
https://warontherocks.com/2015/11/m...a-corrupted-military-exercise-and-its-legacy/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/sep/06/usa.iraq
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/aug/21/usa.julianborger

Having read the wiki, may I ask if you read the wiki?

I’ll get on to reading the other links now but so far, it appears that you either lied or were very selective with your comments about it. Plus it seems you’re putting a lot of emphasis on something that took place 17 years ago and was absolutely full of holes.

 

[SWP's back]

One of many extremely effective tactics used. Iran is the only state in the region that uses small speedboats armed with cruise missiles, which gives away the identity of the "potential adversary". Here is one of my favourite quotes:

Yeah because of:

Since the wargame allowed for a ship-to-shore landing of ground troops at some (unknown) point during the 14 day exercise, and because the naval force was substantial, the force was positioned on the shore-side of the region's active shipping lanes to keep them from impacting commerce during the exercise. This placed them in close proximity to the Red shore rather than at a "standoff" distance. Conducting the wargames during peacetime also meant that there were a large number of friendly/unaligned ships and aircraft in the zone, restricting the use of automated defense systems and more cautious Rules of Engagement. Red's tactics took full advantage of these factors, and to great effect.

 

[Homar]

Having read the wiki, may I ask if you read the wiki?

I’ll get on to reading the other links now but so far, it appears that you either lied or were very selective with your comments about it. Plus it seems you’re putting a lot of emphasis on something that took place 17 years ago and was absolutely full of holes.

How was I selective? The facts are that this fictional adversary (Iran) defeated the US within days. They then restarted the simulation and imposed many ridiculous restrictions on the adversary in order to ensure that the US was victorious in the second round. Yes, it was 17 years ago. That's nothing in military terms. Iran's capabilities have advanced since then. More so, in proportional terms, than the US. Also, the whole thing was projected 5 years into the future.

 

[Homar]

Yeah because of:

What?! That was their own choice. They chose to try to keep oil flowing during the conflict. I doubt that it would have had much effect on the outcome anyway. The Persian Gulf isn't exactly vast.

 

[SWP's back]

How was I selective? The facts are that this fictional adversary (Iran) defeated the US within days. They then restarted the simulation and imposed many ridiculous restrictions on the adversary in order to ensure that the US was victorious in the second round. Yes, it was 17 years ago. That's nothing in military terms. Iran's capabilities have advanced since then. More so, in proportional terms, than the US.

They aren’t the facts at all.

What the facts are was that the war game was stopped after a day and restarted which ended with Blue team winning.

I don’t know how you can read the links you posted and believe that anything at all can be read into the war game exercise. It appears a complete waste of time and money.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

You haven't a clue. I have seen Saudi Arabia's military with my own eyes. Their inability to defeat a ragtag militia in Yemen should not at all be surprising. Iran has carrier-killing ballistic missiles with 2,000km+ range. They have many midget submarines and supercavitating torpedos, specifically designed for the conditions in the Gulf. They can mine the strait. Go read about the Millennium Challenge war games.

I can’t believe it!

Quoting toy soldiers to back up a claim to military superiority.

It’s laughable.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

They aren’t the facts at all.

What the facts are was that the war game was stopped after a day and restarted which ended with Blue team winning.

I don’t know how you can read the links you posted and believe that anything at all can be read into the war game exercise. It appears a complete waste of time and money.

Tbf though the US are specialists at wasting money

 

[SWP's back]

I doubt that it would have had much effect on the outcome anyway.

Oh, well if you doubt it then we should end the discussion.

The whole reason the war game was restarted was because of the attack on the fleet. That’s why the US lost 20,000 troops in the first running (but were not defeated as you suggested).

Without the 17 destroyers and carrier being taken out, Blue team won convincingly, something to completely ignored when this discussion started and you claimed “the US know their capabilities better than you.” Well yes they probably do and they think they’ll win convincingly.

The Persian Gulf isn't exactly vast.

It’s big enough to have a stand off distance to avoid suicide attacks from fucking pleasure craft.

 

[Homar]

They aren’t the facts at all.

What the facts are was that the war game was stopped after a day and restarted which ended with Blue team winning.

I don’t know how you can read the links you posted and believe that anything at all can be read into the war game exercise. It appears a complete waste of time and money.

It was restarted after Iran sunk the US navy and the war was effectively over. They restarted it and then placed restrictions on Iran. They were unable to use their surface to air missiles, for example. They scripted the second round in order to ensure that the US was victorious. This is acknowledged by the people central to the whole exercise. It might be your assessment that these things are a waste of time/money, but it is clearly not theirs.

 

[SWP's back]

They restarted it and then placed restrictions on Iran.

Because the US Fleet wouldn’t have been within range of fucking pleasure craft.

They were in close as they were real ships and wanted to avoid a real collision with other real ships in a real shipping lane in real life in peacetime.

How can you read those links and not be aware of that.

 

[SWP's back]

It might be your assessment that these things are a waste of time/money, but it is clearly not theirs.

And in the opinion of the general in charge of red team.

 

[Homar]

The whole reason the war game was restarted was because of the attack on the fleet. That’s why the US lost 20,000 troops in the first running (but were not defeated as you suggested).

This is just plain wrong. A direct quote from General Peter Pace: "You kill me in the first day and I sit there for the next 13 days doing nothing, or you put me back to life and you get 13 more days' worth of experiment out of me. Which is a better way to do it?".

Iran now possesses cruise missiles with a range of 2000km, covering the entirety of the Gulf and then some.

 

[Homar]

And in the opinion of the general in charge of red team.

He thought this because of the limitations placed on him in the second round. That literally contradicts your argument!

 

[SWP's back]

This is just plain wrong. A direct quote from General Peter Pace: "You kill me in the first day and I sit there for the next 13 days doing nothing, or you put me back to life and you get 13 more days' worth of experiment out of me. Which is a better way to do it?".

Iran now possesses cruise missiles with a range of 2000km, covering the entirety of the Gulf and then some.

It’s not remotely wrong and your quote doesn’t make it wrong either. The issue is you not understanding the quote in context.

 

[SWP's back]

He thought this because of the limitations placed on him in the second round. That literally contradicts your argument!

It doesn’t at all because you still don’t understand by the US fleet was taken out and why that wouldn’t have been possible in the first place.

 

[SWP's back]

Because the US Fleet wouldn’t have been within range of fucking pleasure craft.

They were in close as they were real ships and wanted to avoid a real collision with other real ships in a real shipping lane in real life in peacetime.

How can you read those links and not be aware of that.

This is the key Homar and why it was restarted. There is no getting around that no matter how much you wriggle.

You said, wrongly, that the US believe they’d lose a war with Iran in two days. That was either a lie or disingenuous or (at best) you being unable to comprehend the results of the war game.

What is most certainly wasn’t, was an accurate portrayal of how the US thinks in 2019.

 

[Homar]

It doesn’t at all because you still don’t understand by the US fleet was taken out and why that wouldn’t have been possible in the first place.

It would have been possible. Those boats can strike anywhere in the Gulf. The tactic was one of a swarm attack. It's even irrelevant today, because Iran doesn't even need to use these small boats. They can hit anywhere in the Gulf with even more powerful cruise missiles.
You're clearly unwilling to accept the facts. I've wasted enough time as it is.

I'll just leave with this quote and anyone that is interested can make up their own mind:

Van Riper’s red team prepared itself for an amphibious assault by the Marines. He knew that the first wave would include the V-22 Osprey, a multi-mission, tilt-rotor aircraft that the Marines had in the pipeline but would not actually field for another five years. The V-22’s twin 38-foot propellers gave the transport aircraft a notoriously large identifiable radar signature that could easily be identified and tracked with crude radars and surface-to-air missiles. The red team was ready to begin shooting down the V-22s when Van Riper’s chief of staff received a message from the white cell. Hostile fire against the V-22s or blue’s C-130 troop transport planes was forbidden. The white cell also directed the chief of staff that the red team had to position its air defense assets out in the open so the blue forces could easily destroy them. Even after some were not destroyed, the red team was forbidden to fire upon blue forces as they conducted a live airborne drop. Van Riper asked the white cell if his forces could at least deploy the chemical weapons that he possessed, but he was again denied.

Van Riper was furious. Not only had the white cell’s instructions compromised the integrity of the entire process, but also his own chief of staff — a retired Army colonel — was receiving conflicting orders about how his force should be deployed. When Van Riper went to Kernan to complain, he was told: “You are playing out of character. The OPFOR would never have done what you did.” Van Riper subsequently gathered the red team and told them to follow the chief of staff’s orders. The independence that he believed a red team must be granted to do its job had been corrupted. Six days into the exercise, he stepped down as commander and served as an advisor for the remaining 17 days. During that time, the blue team achieved most of its campaign plan objectives by destroying the OPFOR air and naval forces, securing the shipping lanes, and capturing or neutralizing the red regime’s WMD assets. The OPFOR was capable of partially preserving the red regime, but it was substantially weakened and its regional influence was much diminished.

Van Riper was not willing to let the matter drop. He wrote up a report detailing the numerous shortcomings of the war game, how it was controlled, and how the exercise could lead the Pentagon to have misplaced confidence in still-untested military war-fighting concepts. He handed six hard copies of the report to senior JFCOM leaders, but never received any feedback. However, unlike the other concept-development exercises, Van Riper believed that MC ’02 was both scripted and carried out in a way that did not realistically reflect likely future U.S. military capabilities or the threats posed by a thinking, motivated adversary. As he recalled: “War-gaming is not normally corrupted, but this whole thing was prostituted; it was a sham intended to prove what they wanted to prove.”

 

[Metalartin]

I don't get how anyone could be defending Iran or doesn't see the reasons why the US would get involved, how much involvement should they have is the question. Saudi and UAE are considered key allies in the middle east, the rest are anti-western in comparison, then there's the oil issue.

I know Saudi are no angels but Iran seem by far the worse of the two. Their growing influence in the neighbouring countries to Saudi has sparked a lot of trouble in recent years as I understand it. Which if they are considered enemies is understandable(to have a reaction, not that their reactions have been correct), the USA wouldn't stand for it on their doorstep.

All in all it seems idiotic even if "Iran could just walk into Saudi and take over", to just let that happen. That would set relations in the middle east back decades for the west.

 

[purplenose]

Iran has a very capable military. The IRGC is fully capable of closing the Persian Gulf indefinitely. If they chose, they could seize control of Saudi Arabia within days. What you see portrayed of Iran's military capability in the media is little more than western propaganda. The Saudi's don't even have a functioning army despite the billions they've spent. Iran can create an exclusion zone of 2000km from their border, significantly limiting the ability of the US to project power. They are capable of completely destroying all American bases in the region. They've been preparing for war with the US for decades. Every decision they make, every weapon they manufacture, is designed to wage asymmetric warfare against the Americans.

If the US was capable of winning a war with little cost then they would have done so long ago. The costs would be far too great and the outcome is far from certain. The Iranians are incrementally ramping up the pressure. The signal they are sending is clear: if we can't sell our oil then we'll make sure that nobody can sell their oil. You saw it first with the attack on the Emirati tankers. Then with the attack on the Aramco pumping station. Now by shutting down a significant portion of Aramco's production. They shot down a $200m drone with stealth and electronic warfare capabilities and they've demonstrated an ability to penetrate heavily defended areas. There will be more to come. Saudi Arabia will bear the direct costs, but there will be implications for the global economy.

What a load of bollocks