Another new Brexit thread

[Chippy_boy]

Please seek help....


Johnson and the rest of the Tory Party are the toxic ones ... failing to develop ANY policies that actually help and aid the electorate .. instead constantly lining the pockets of themselves and their corporate masters. Supported by a press that fails to report what they are doing


If Jeremy Corbyn had been accused of Corruption / groping two women and lying to the Queen we would've had a Newsight double edition and Question time back to back last night


See how it works?

How depressing for you that the Tories are so far ahead in the polls then.

You'd better stop wasting your time trying to convince me and get out there and work on the other 40m voters. Cards stacked against you? Oh dear, what a pity, never mind.

Perhaps if Labour stopped their nonsensical policies of trying to return us to a 1970's Britain with more taxes, nationalisations, union power, strikes and god knows what else, more people might find them appealing. Ditto if you had a leader who stood up for something. Anything. Rather than sat on the fence about literally everything rather than put off a voter.

 

[Chippy_boy]

They have always been open, to a solution for the Irish border.

They are not 'open' to any concessions, on anything & have reiterated that in these so called 'talks'.

If we want to give them more & take less, I'm pretty sure they'll have no problem accepting it.

The withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation, our expectations and our hope is that this dialogue will conclude with a positive result, which will allow us at last to have a positive majority emerge with regard to this withdrawal agreement.

– Michel Barnier

Reuters 5 months ago

 

[BobKowalski]

Bob I am sorry but you are not thinking clearly here.

Of course a no deal Brexit hurts the UK more than the EU, but you cannot surely be arguing it would not hurt the EU. I know you're not arguing that because you are sensible and informed. A no deal Brexit hurts the EU and they do not want it.

And therefore it is unassailable logic that whilst the possibility of a no deal Brexit exists, then the EU might be more tempted to provide us with slightly better deal terms in order to avoid that eventuality. But as soon as there is no possibility of a no deal Brexit, all incentive for the EU to offer improved terms goes away. In fact they are incentivising to NOT offer better terms since that then would be encouraging us to leave, rather than encouraging us to stay. The Benn legislation was truly idiotic, unless it's sole objective was to kill Brexit and maybe it was.

This is not a Tory vs Labour, Brexit vs Remain, Right vs Left argument. It is simply logical fact.

No one wants a no deal Brexit. Not the U.K. Not the EU. But the EU will not, nor can it, compromise on Single Market integrity. Once it compromises it is finished. It’s black and white. You are either in the Single Market or you are not. You either accept the common rule book or you don’t. You either accept the four freedoms or you don’t. It’s a set menu not a la carte. If the EU make it a la carte for the U.K., a non member state, then everyone wants it and then there is no Single Market.

All E27 countries know this. It’s why Cameron didn’t get what he fully wanted and it’s why they will not give us what we want now. It is not in the E27’s interests. No deal is not something they want but it is something they can manage and is preferable to having no Single Market at all.

We have to choose. Out of the Single Market and Customs Union? Then we need to accept that we will have trade barriers and increased friction in trade. We need to accept that U.K. qualifications and standards will no longer be automatically accepted EU wide and the knock on effect this will have in our Service industry. We need a customs and tariff policy. We need a customs border between us and the EU states specifically NI. And so on and so on. Barnier offered us a choice three years ago of varying degrees of access dependent on our choices. We just need to choose.

Finally the WA only covers three items. There is no ‘better’ deal. It will absolutely form the basis of our departure because there is nothing else. Our only real ask is removal of the backstop which Dublin will not countenance. They are under no pressure because we cannot put forward a legally operable alternative. Politically a no deal imposed border ‘because of the Brits’ is preferable to facilitating one in a few years time because ‘they caved to the Brits’. Politically, economically there is no where to go except the WA. The EU are not open to facilitating a managed no deal and rebuffed our approach. And why did we approach about a managed no deal? Because we are very worried about the consequences of no deal. The EU rebuffed our approach of a one year transition after no deal. Transition is available only under the WA. Why did we ask for a one year transition? Because we don’t think we can cope without that status quo buffer in the event of a no deal. Our rhetoric doesn’t impress. What we request of the EU does.

 

[BobKowalski]

The withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation, our expectations and our hope is that this dialogue will conclude with a positive result, which will allow us at last to have a positive majority emerge with regard to this withdrawal agreement.

– Michel Barnier

Reuters 5 months ago

Offer the EU something that does the same job as the backstop and sees the U.K. ratifying the WA? Then they will open the WA. These alternatives as long as they are legally operable can replace the backstop. The option to do so is already in the WA.

This is a legal and technical discussion. Approach on that basis and there is scope for meaningful dialogue. Shouting threats not so much.

 

[Rascal]

How depressing for you that the Tories are so far ahead in the polls then.

You'd better stop wasting your time trying to convince me and get out there and work on the other 40m voters. Cards stacked against you? Oh dear, what a pity, never mind.

Perhaps if Labour stopped their nonsensical policies of trying to return us to a 1970's Britain with more taxes, nationalisations, union power, strikes and god knows what else, more people might find them appealing. Ditto if you had a leader who stood up for something. Anything. Rather than sat on the fence about literally everything rather than put off a voter.

Its not depressing, your summary of the Labour Party gives me hope, because its wrong and all we have to do is prove you are wrong and we win.

I know you will never vote Labour, just as I would never vote Tory, so its the small amount of people that decide elections that need to hear the message. The more that Labour are denigrated, the more like project fear it becomes and the British hate project fear.

 

[Chippy_boy]

No one wants a no deal Brexit. Not the U.K. Not the EU. But the EU will not, nor can it, compromise on Single Market integrity. Once it compromises it is finished. It’s black and white. You are either in the Single Market or you are not. You either accept the common rule book or you don’t. You either accept the four freedoms or you don’t. It’s a set menu not a la carte. If the EU make it a la carte for the U.K., a non member state, then everyone wants it and then there is no Single Market.

All E27 countries know this. It’s why Cameron didn’t get what he fully wanted and it’s why they will not give us what we want now. It is not in the E27’s interests. No deal is not something they want but it is something they can manage and is preferable to having no Single Market at all.

We have to choose. Out of the Single Market and Customs Union? Then we need to accept that we will have trade barriers and increased friction in trade. We need to accept that U.K. qualifications and standards will no longer be automatically accepted EU wide and the knock on effect this will have in our Service industry. We need a customs and tariff policy. We need a customs border between us and the EU states specifically NI. And so on and so on. Barnier offered us a choice three years ago of varying degrees of access dependent on our choices. We just need to choose.

Finally the WA only covers three items. There is no ‘better’ deal. It will absolutely form the basis of our departure because there is nothing else. Our only real ask is removal of the backstop which Dublin will not countenance. They are under no pressure because we cannot put forward a legally operable alternative. Politically a no deal imposed border ‘because of the Brits’ is preferable to facilitating one in a few years time because ‘they caved to the Brits’. Politically, economically there is no where to go except the WA. The EU are not open to facilitating a managed no deal and rebuffed our approach. And why did we approach about a managed no deal? Because we are very worried about the consequences of no deal. The EU rebuffed our approach of a one year transition after no deal. Transition is available only under the WA. Why did we ask for a one year transition? Because we don’t think we can cope without that status quo buffer in the event of a no deal. Our rhetoric doesn’t impress. What we request of the EU does.

Same old same old. Yes we've been through this 100 times.

But your final paragraph is the nub of it. We have the basis of a deal if we can find a solution to the NI issue, and that's where the breakthrough will come if there is one. For example, Boris could ditch the support of the DUP and go for an NI-only backstop. There's other possibilities being explored as I am sure you realise.

But NONE of this was open to discussion until we threatened leaving with no deal.

 

[mcfc1632]

Sorry, butI’m definitely not understanding that. :-(

Oops - typo - problem with using a phone....

I firmly believe that if we Remain in the EU then Scotland will leave the UK within 10 years

Strangely and something seemingly not understood by some Remainers on here, if we were to genuinely Leave the EU in the next 2 years that is unlikely to happen.

​

I think the logic is very obvious

I tried to debate it with one of the Remainers but they chickened out

I am catching up - I might find they have come out of hiding by the time I get up to date

 

[Chippy_boy]

Its not depressing, your summary of the Labour Party gives me hope, because its wrong and all we have to do is prove you are wrong and we win.

Does Len McCluskey know this? He's in for a bit of a shock if true. Better have a word with John "Insurrection" McDonnell whilst you're at it.

 

[Rascal]

Does Len McCluskey know this? He's in for a bit of a shock if true. Better have a word with John "Insurrection" McDonnell whilst you're at it.

They both know it, you know it too deep down.

Both are more pragmatic than you think.

 

[Chippy_boy]

They both know it, you know it too deep down.

Both are more pragmatic than you think.

No, I really don't Rascal. I think Corbyn's vision for Britain is absolutely wrong and doomed to failure were he to ever get in. He thinks "fairness" is taking ever more people of better off people. I do not. And I don't think it works either. You reward people for doing less and penalise people for working harder and it ultimately wrecks the economy and makes everyone worse off. I think he's completely deluded in his thinking - however well intentioned.

And I think he's toned down the rhetoric enormously because he knows only a handful would vote for him if he said what he really thinks. I don't trust him one bit.

And I trust McDonnell even less. He wants "systemic change". I do not. He wants to show once and for all that capitalism does not work. I do not. And I don't agree with his assessment either.

I honestly think for McDonnell, the ruination of the UK economy and putting millions out of work, would be a small price in order to cement the sorts of change he wants. This is a man who said of the 2008 crash - "I've been waiting all my life for this". A crash that has impoverished millions of people for over 10 years, and he was delighted by it.

It beggars belief that anyone would vote for a party with Corbyn, McDonnell and (god help us) Abbot at the helm. It's truly unthinkable.

 

[yerwot?]

Repeating that remaining/revoking will make the fracture worse, rivers of blood blah blah blah, do the brexits actually think that that threat is going to make anyone on the remain side surrender, "Oh right then, fuck the EU, now where's the far right band-wagon, a one-way ticket to feudalism please". It's taken much longer than i expected for the penny to drop that brexit is a tory-manufactured extension to their much-loved austerity war-on-the-poor programme, designed to last for the foreseeable future. The various efforts to disguise the reality have been cunning and persistent, the racism card being particularly effective; vile, but effective. Now that the likelihood of serious damage to the conservative party grows stronger each time johnson opens his mouth,(and flies) the response is to defend him, at all costs,brings on the "barbarians at the gate" mentality. The "we love boris" march through the city centre yesterday was notable for the marchers being out-numbered by the police, no doubt the media will translate "several" into "thousands" but everyone knows their bias by now and won't lose any sleep over it. Without the slightest hint of a threat, real public disorder is a possibility if johnson tries some desperate reckless stunt to try and force brexit on the country illegally. I almost wish he does, almost being the operative word. If it ended our defunct two-party fptp divisive political stitch up....which imo is the very root of most of the UK's troubles ? price worth paying? we'll never know

 

[meltonblue]

Same old same old. Yes we've been through this 100 times.

But your final paragraph is the nub of it. We have the basis of a deal if we can find a solution to the NI issue, and that's where the breakthrough will come if there is one. For example, Boris could ditch the support of the DUP and go for an NI-only backstop. There's other possibilities being explored as I am sure you realise.

But NONE of this was open to discussion until we threatened leaving with no deal.

It was though, a NI only backstop was the EUs idea in the first place. That’s always been on the table, it’s the removal of the principle behind it which is the issue.

 

[mcfc1632]

In short, everyone gets to say exactly what they want and if Boris says humbug in response he’s a facist ****. How very convenient.

What has actually happened is that the losing side in a referendum has refused to accept the result and this is leading to huge ructions in society. Rather than owning that and arguing that this is a price worth paying for staying in the EU, they deflect and attempt to pass the buck. If people were asking for all sides to tone down the rhetoric I could get behind that, but they aren’t even willing to do that. Remainers have split into two camps, one just simply wants to cancel the referendum result and the other proposes a rigged referendum. How they have the balls to claim the moral high ground is beyond me.

Utterly spot on the money - of course you will get the usual suspects resisting the truth of what you say - Inconvenient truths appear to trigger that reaction

 

[blueparrot]

Same old same old. Yes we've been through this 100 times.

But your final paragraph is the nub of it. We have the basis of a deal if we can find a solution to the NI issue, and that's where the breakthrough will come if there is one. For example, Boris could ditch the support of the DUP and go for an NI-only backstop. There's other possibilities being explored as I am sure you realise.

But NONE of this was open to discussion until we threatened leaving with no deal.

It was all open to discussion before Johnson, and the barriers May faced with numbers in parliament is now worse for Johnson since he expelled more mps. The No deal threat is no more effective for Johnson than it was for May. The EU knew before Johnson It was an empty threat and they knew with Johnson it's an empty threat. Pretty sure you have used the argument yourself before Johnson the damage of no deal on the EU would be negligible compared to the damage to the UK.

 

[BobKowalski]

Same old same old. Yes we've been through this 100 times.

But your final paragraph is the nub of it. We have the basis of a deal if we can find a solution to the NI issue, and that's where the breakthrough will come if there is one. For example, Boris could ditch the support of the DUP and go for an NI-only backstop. There's other possibilities being explored as I am sure you realise.

But NONE of this was open to discussion until we threatened leaving with no deal.

It was only closed to stop us keep trying to undo it and playing silly buggers. But to improve it or suggest legally operable alternative solutions that leads to the U.K. ratifying it? Then it’s open. Want to reopen it to replace the current backstop with a NI only backstop? Dublin and the EU would be delighted. It’s their preferred option after all.

I get that you want to present this as a ‘win’ for Johnson. God knows he’s not exactly ‘winning’ much currently but the EU is always going to listen to legal and technical arguments that work and don’t threaten their own redlines or impact negatively on domestic opinion in 27 other countries. All shouting threats does is harden this domestic opinion and makes workable solutions more difficult to find.

The EU isn’t threatening. It isn’t shouting. It isn’t booting out commission members or talking about ‘surrender’ or ‘betrayal’ or any of that unhinged nonsense. It just wants solid legal and technical solutions. So find them. And if we can’t do that by 31st Oct then do it by the end of November or in the words of the Brexit Secretary accept that it’s going to take a year or so and work towards that.

In short let’s act like adults.

 

[meltonblue]

Utterly spot on the money - of course you will get the usual suspects resisting the truth of what you say - Inconvenient truths appear to trigger that reaction

It isn’t the truth though because it’s such a simplification, bear in mind that the 2017 GE had the two main parties winning a large portion of the vote, so clearly a lot of people who voted remain in the referendum also voted for parties who said they would honour the referendum in their manifestos. That was the only time since the referendum anyone has had any other say in it.

If you’re talking about within parliament, then the conservative MPs who voted to remain voted for the WA and against a second referendum.

Not all people who voted remain support solely cancelling article 50 or a “rigged” referendum, far from it. That’s just as bad a lazy stereotype as saying all leavers want no deal. None of this is binary, however much people try and turn it into it.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Not all people who voted remain support solely cancelling article 50 or a “rigged” referendum, far from it. That’s just as bad a lazy stereotype as saying all leavers want no deal. None of this is binary, however much people try and turn it into it.

Me for one ;-)

Whereas I did advocate that for the past 3 years, at least I was upfront and honest about it. What I didn't do was what MPs have done, which is to say they respected the referendum result whilst at the same time acting in a way which demonstrates complete lack of respect for it. I thought voting to leave was an utterly bonkers decision which should be overturned. I still think it was a bonkers decision but have reluctantly concluded we cannot put it back in its box now.

 

[mcfc1632]

Leavers will not accept the result of a 2nd referendum between some variant of May’s Deal and Remain. No Deal would have to be an option if the 2nd referendum is to bring a degree of closure. And parliament will not approve a referendum question that includes no Deal

The only democratically valid options would be May's deal (or a re-hash of that) and no-deal IMO

Any referendum with Remain as an option is a vote being rigged

 

[mcfc1632]

yep. what i find ridiculous/ ironic is the amount of remainers now offended by certain language being used, when literally for the last 3 years theyve insulted, mocked and called leave voters every name under the sun. contempt and an attitude of basically 'I'm better then you'. the true colours of a lot of these mps are coming out now as well - 'we couldnt care less what you think'.

The true colours of a lot of people have come to the fore recently - if hypocrisy can be identified as a colour

 

[cibaman]

Bob I am sorry but you are not thinking clearly here.

Of course a no deal Brexit hurts the UK more than the EU, but you cannot surely be arguing it would not hurt the EU. I know you're not arguing that because you are sensible and informed. A no deal Brexit hurts the EU and they do not want it.

And therefore it is unassailable logic that whilst the possibility of a no deal Brexit exists, then the EU might be more tempted to provide us with slightly better deal terms in order to avoid that eventuality. But as soon as there is no possibility of a no deal Brexit, all incentive for the EU to offer improved terms goes away. In fact they are incentivising to NOT offer better terms since that then would be encouraging us to leave, rather than encouraging us to stay. The Benn legislation was truly idiotic, unless it's sole objective was to kill Brexit and maybe it was.

This is not a Tory vs Labour, Brexit vs Remain, Right vs Left argument. It is simply logical fact.

But what are those better terms that would allow a Brexit Deal to pass? Surely only total capitulation on the backstop would do the trick? And that wouldn’t guarantee it.