Another new Brexit thread

[mcfc1632]

TO overturn the initial vote.

A second ref is meant to decide whether we support a deal or no deal, but remainers who refuse to compromise, just want to overturn it.

And they unashamedly lie about that simple fact

A 2nd referendum is utterly about overturning the original vote - but allowing Remainers to feel good about themselves

 

[Chippy_boy]

Genuinely I hope you are right and he gets a deal, for the good of the country but I just can’t see it.

I don’t think he has enough time left and the noise out of the EU is that he hasn’t even proposed an alternative.

I also believe that his backers want a no deal, as his sister has said.

I think he’s drumming up the feeling of Parliament vs the people in the knowledge we’ll still be in after the 31st and it’ll be parliaments fault.

I think a deal is unlikely at this point I agree. I also agree than Boris is playing politics in trying to drum up support. He is after all, a politician. Politicians say and do all sorts of things all the time to maximise their support. A bit like Corbyn refusing to come out and admit he's a Brexit supporter, for example.

 

[Ban-jani]

Assuming that Labour will whip against any deal Johnson comes up with, the Lib Dem’s, SNP etc will not vote for a deal without a confirmatory referendum, Johnson won’t agree a deal that isn’t sanctioned by the DUP, the Tory rebels will vote for a deal, then for a deal to go through don’t the number of Labour MPs defying their whip and voting for a deal deal need to exceed the number of Tory MPs defying their whip and voting against a deal? And is that at all likely?

Nope

 

[Ban-jani]

I think a deal is unlikely at this point I agree. I also agree than Boris is playing politics in trying to drum up support. He is after all, a politician. Politicians say and do all sorts of things all the time to maximise their support. A bit like Corbyn refusing to come out and admit he's a Brexit supporter, for example.

Absolutely correct

 

[mcfc1632]

But when the compromisers outnumber the extremists...

We need remainer extremists to start backing EFTA as well. They're just as instrumental in prolonguing the chaos as the ERG.

The problem with this chat you have been having with BJ is that he speaks as if 'he represents the Remain view'.

@Ban-jani - this is not meant as a criticism - but there are so many posts from you recently stating how you would accept a deal etc. and you seem to think that this should be a 'line drawn' with regard to how Leavers should view the Remain position.

Sorry - you are not the collective Remain position - most Leaver posts are in response to more 'extreme' Remainers such as @Neville Kneville - so you keep posting as if you are representative is meaningless

 

[Ban-jani]

The problem with this chat you have been having with BJ is that he speaks as if 'he represents the Remain view'.

@Ban-jani - this is no meant as a criticism - but there are so many posts from you recently stating how you would accept a deal etc. and you seem to think that this should be a 'line drawn' with regard to how Leavers should view the Remain position.

Sorry - you are not the collective Remain position - most Leaver posts are in response to more 'extreme' Remainers such as @Neville Kneville - so you keep posting as if you are representative is meaningless

I’ve never once stated I speak for everyone.

I have said that I know of several remainers on this board who have said themselves they’ll accept a deal at this stage, obviously depending on what’s in it.

I’m purely basing this on my own interactions but the majority of remain voters I speak with, just want a deal and for it to move on now.

My opposition is to no deal, that’s it pure and simple.

 

[Mike D]

Interestingly Grieve seems to think Johnson could face being sacked or forced to ask for an extension by the courts.

Sajid Javid suggested the government had a plan to get around Benn Act, calling the legislation “silly”. Dominic Grieve said the PM would be “dismissed” by the Queen if he fails to seek a delay.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...rieve-prime-minister-no-deal-eu-a9126356.html

The former attorney current attorney Geoffrey Cox and lord chancellor Robert Buckland would resign.

Personally I tend agree that this tough talking from the likes Johnson, Gove and Javid is just hot air and designed to appeal to his base supporters. Because we all know that he is a coward who never takes responsibility for his actions and never will do he has done this all his life.

 

[mcfc1632]

I think the opposition on the leave side is strengthened because they believe that anything other than NoDeal will be subject to a skewed second referendum leading to brexit being cancelled.

My guess is that if we were to now offer leavers a deal without a second referendum they’d take it. Even May’s Deal

I think that is correct - a 2nd referendum would be rigged -but not May's deal with the unfettered backstop - May's deal with that removed

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

I think a deal is unlikely at this point I agree. I also agree than Boris is playing politics in trying to drum up support. He is after all, a politician. Politicians say and do all sorts of things all the time to maximise their support. A bit like Corbyn refusing to come out and admit he's a Brexit supporter, for example.

I think a deal is actually likely with the eu but the opposition parties will note vote for it , a few Tory rebels and it won’t get through the House of Commons.

The opposition are having the time of their lives blocking everything at the moment and nothing will please them more than again voting against Boris.

 

[Ban-jani]

I think a deal is actually likely with the eu but the opposition parties will note vote for it , a few Tory rebels and it won’t get through the House of Commons.

The opposition are having the time of their lives blocking everything at the moment and nothing will please them more than again voting against Boris.

I think if a feasible deal comes back, without the backstop and the opposition don’t vote it through, it’ll kill them. Then again, they’ll be killed if Johnson delivers Brexit anyway.

It’s a lose lose for the opposition and Johnson must know that bringing a deal back is his best chance of being PM long term.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I think a deal is actually likely with the eu but the opposition parties will note vote for it , a few Tory rebels and it won’t get through the House of Commons.

The opposition are having the time of their lives blocking everything at the moment and nothing will please them more than again voting against Boris.

I've wondered about that, and said raised the question myself on this thread.

It will be an interesting dilemma for MPs (if it comes to pass). Labour will be stuck between a very hard rock and a very hard place! On the one hand, giving support to Boris and effectively cementing his position as the PM who delivered, who got it done. On the other hand, getting blamed by all and sundry - not least the electorate - for taking a politically expedient option ahead of the best interests of the country.

On balance, I think you're right and Labour will go for the latter. But it's a very very dangerous path. They will have to try to paint a picture of it being a terrible deal that they cannot possibly support even though of course they would dearly love to etc etc. That's going to be a hard line to spin, if they deal looks in any way reasonable. And if the electorate think Corbyn's just being a twat, he'll get slaughtered in the ensuing GE.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I think if a feasible deal comes back, without the backstop and the opposition don’t vote it through, it’ll kill them. Then again, they’ll be killed if Johnson delivers Brexit anyway.

It’s a lose lose for the opposition and Johnson must know that bringing a deal back is his best chance of being PM long term.

I see you beat me to it. You've rather more succinctly written what I said.

 

[bluejon]

I've wondered about that, and said raised the question myself on this thread.

It will be an interesting dilemma for MPs (if it comes to pass). Labour will be stuck between a very hard rock and a very hard place! On the one hand, giving support to Boris and effectively cementing his position as the PM who delivered, who got it done. On the other hand, getting blamed by all and sundry - not least the electorate - for taking a politically expedient option ahead of the best interests of the country.

On balance, I think you're right and Labour will go for the latter. But it's a very very dangerous path. They will have to try to paint a picture of it being a terrible deal that they cannot possibly support even though of course they would dearly love to etc etc. That's going to be a hard line to spin, if they deal looks in any way reasonable. And if the electorate think Corbyn's just being a twat, he'll get slaughtered in the ensuing GE.

You are going on the assumption though that Johnson is trying to get a deal and will come back with one. I strongly suspect he isn't, and in that instance Johnson looks like the complete liar he is. We'll find out soon enough I suppose.

 

[Hesperus]

I think if a feasible deal comes back, without the backstop and the opposition don’t vote it through, it’ll kill them. Then again, they’ll be killed if Johnson delivers Brexit anyway.

It’s a lose lose for the opposition and Johnson must know that bringing a deal back is his best chance of being PM long term.

The government need to actually start negotiating then. It’s all just been lip service up to now.

The EU aren’t going to move on the backstop, Rabb has said they are at least a year away from resolving the issues with the Irish border. So I think they have their work cut out.

 

[BobKowalski]

Yes, I said so a while back. I am a Remainer 2nd and a Corbyn hater first and foremost.

Splitter

 

[Ban-jani]

I see you beat me to it. You've rather more succinctly written what I said.

To add a further point, if Labour do reject the deal as a “bad one”, that will mean that if they do get into power, which will be then unlikely, they’ll then have to get a better deal, in the eyes of the electorate and a deal that beats this hypothetical Johnson deal isn’t possible.

With all that in mind though, I still don’t think Johnson is getting a new deal.

 

[Chippy_boy]

You are going on the assumption though that Johnson is trying to get a deal and will come back with one. I strongly suspect he isn't, and in that instance Johnson looks like the complete liar he is. We'll find out soon enough I suppose.

He must be trying to get a deal. He cannot possibly be relying on some convoluted tricks to exit without one by Oct 31, since the chances of that are pretty slim to nil and he could find himself in contempt of court, being dismissed as PM and God knows what else. Vs come back with a deal and he's a hero. He'd be insane to not be pursing a deal as his massively preferred course of action, and he is not insane.

 

[Blue Hefner]

I've wondered about that, and said raised the question myself on this thread.

It will be an interesting dilemma for MPs (if it comes to pass). Labour will be stuck between a very hard rock and a very hard place! On the one hand, giving support to Boris and effectively cementing his position as the PM who delivered, who got it done. On the other hand, getting blamed by all and sundry - not least the electorate - for taking a politically expedient option ahead of the best interests of the country.

On balance, I think you're right and Labour will go for the latter. But it's a very very dangerous path. They will have to try to paint a picture of it being a terrible deal that they cannot possibly support even though of course they would dearly love to etc etc. That's going to be a hard line to spin, if they deal looks in any way reasonable. And if the electorate think Corbyn's just being a twat, he'll get slaughtered in the ensuing GE.

For Labour to vote for it, won’t they have to make the argument that the deal is better than staying in I.e do Johnson’s job for him?

It is very difficult for Labour as it isn’t typical behaviour of the Opposition to vote through potentially damaging Government policy

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Yes, I said so a while back. I am a Remainer 2nd and a Corbyn hater first and foremost.

I don't know whether this sub-forum is an accurate portrayal of opinion in the UK, in general.
What I have found and have said previously, is that the Referendum result was not a clear split along normal GE party lines. However, using your post CB as an example, it has been quite normal in here to argue people's points of view from a party line perspective.
A lot of you are looking at voting on a solution from a GE mindset and it would seem that so is your parliament.
You are not going to get a logical compromise either in Westminster or amongst yourselves in here when these are your priorities.

A workable solution should really be possible to take you to the next step of negotiations. That is when the real work will need to be done. But you can't get past the party politics that took you here in the first place.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

He must be trying to get a deal. He cannot possibly be relying on some convoluted tricks to exit without one by Oct 31, since the chances of that are pretty slim to nil and he could find himself in contempt of court, being dismissed as PM and God knows what else. Vs come back with a deal and he's a hero. He'd be insane to not be pursing a deal as his massively preferred course of action, and he is not insane.

You would hope he is, because even from a party political tactic point of view, he wouldn't need to rely on the DUP if he came back to parliament now, with something similar to what was suggested originally. A NI only Backstop. This would put the onus on the opposition to support the deal. If they don't then where do they hide in an election.

Either way the blame goes back to the opposition if he loses a vote.
I don't know what way the ERG element would view things however.