Another new Brexit thread

[Neville Kneville]

Well put. This was always the case but some Brexit supporters failed to grasp it.

We are circa 12% of Germany's car export market. The EU is more than 50% if ours. Netherland exports circa $30bn per year to us, we export 10x that to the EU. Etc etc etc.

However, very unfortunately, we voted to leave. So very reluctantly I've accepted we must. We cannot simply choose to ignore the referendum result. Sadly.

He wouldn't understand that & would assume they would 'cave in' rater than lose the 12% so I tried, to give him a more down to earth example of what it means for millions of individual Europeans compared to us. We lose more.


The point re the referendum is: it is looking increasingly likely, that it may well be impossible to leave, with a hard Brexit agreement, due to the fact of there being no solution to the Irish border in a hard Brexit agreement.

The EU & May, did not agree to a 'backstop' to trap us, they did it because they don't have any answer.

No Deal, was not the outcome sold to the public as a result of voting leave, in the referendum . And no deal, is only a time period for the country to self harm, because we even then, have to have a deal anyhow. No deal= postponing a deal & inflicting more harm on the country.

So imo, the Government's current plan, to leave without a deal, does not honour the result of the referendum & is not even a genuine situation.

May's deal, does, which is why I have always been willing to accept it, because that is the agreement, even though it's shit.

It's taken so long now, that if we are to leave the EU, we need to agree a deal that will actually get through Parliament & then put that, to the people, to see if that's what they want.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

Trump has just slapped a 25% tariff on single malt scotch whiskey...just in case you thought he was a friend of ours.

 

[Vic]

Well put. This was always the case but some Brexit supporters failed to grasp it.

We are circa 12% of Germany's car export market. The EU is more than 50% if ours. Netherland exports circa $30bn per year to us, we export 10x that to the EU. Etc etc etc.

However, very unfortunately, we voted to leave. So very reluctantly I've accepted we must. We cannot simply choose to ignore the referendum result. Sadly.

The ENORMOUS fuck up was losing the bloody thing in the first place.

In the second place was abandoning the promise that we'd still be in a free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border to satisfy the Tory Eurosceptic / English exceptionalist / lost empire wallahs / fascists * who got us in this bind. (* delete as appropriate)

 

[Vic]

Trump has just slapped a 25% tariff on single malt scotch whiskey...just in case you thought he was a friend of ours.

Good old WTO!

It should be good practice for all the tariffs on exports to the EU and to the countries where we currently have deals through the EU.

 

[Neville Kneville]

Trump has just slapped a 25% tariff on single malt scotch whiskey...just in case you thought he was a friend of ours.

Why don't people who want to leave the EU, to 'give us more self determination' & 'do deals with other countries outside' consider that large countries such as USA & China will use our needy situation, to force us to accept stuff we don't want ?

They absolutely will.

 

[Vic]

Why don't people who want to leave the EU, to 'give us more self determination' & 'do deals with other countries outside' consider that large countries such as USA & China will use our needy situation, to force us to accept stuff we don't want ?

They absolutely will.

Because they don't care. You're talking as if rational thought still mattered.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Actually, doesn't this mean that if both blocs have a veto, expecting Stormont to renew agreements could mean that there might never be agreement even if there's a majority of MLAs within the Assembly?

The principle of "consent" is what was behind Lord Trimble's wanting judicial review of the backstop on the grounds that it breached the consent provisions of the Good Friday Agreement. But these proposals give the DUP the whip hand in wrecking the GFA they never wanted.

Which is precisely what I mean by lack of goodwill.
DUP support this because they see it as circumventing the possibility of self determination enshrined in the GFA. It almost guarantees that they stay in the union.
At least that's how it looks from a nationalist point of view.

 

[mcfc1632]

No, you totally ignored my first sentence, are you Boris Johnson? Your ability to ignore questions and only put forward points you want is amazing. If the backstop is not invoked, as is the intention in the political declaration or even if it is invoked, once a future relationship is agreed the backstop ceases to continue. I’m not being naive but you are selective in your response.

Anyway no point discussing the May deal any longer as it’s irrelevant now with Boris’s new deal. Are you happy with that? Nigel Farage wasn’t exactly endorsing it.

Just for completeness

I was not intentionally ignoring your first point...………….

Simple fact - if the UK were stupid enough to sign up to the WA with an unfettered backstop then the backstop would 100% - without any doubt whatsoever - be invoked

There is no circumstance that would see it not be invoked and that is probably why I missed your point the first time

 

[mcfc1632]

Why do you insist on referring to remainers, or even leavers who have voted agsinst what even you say is a shit deal, as sycophants. You have a lot to say and are pretty sure of your positions but you are pretty condescending and this childish oft repeated insult of people who just might be acting in what they see as the nations best interests rather than sucking up to the EU is pretty grating. Care to justify the insult or perhaps withdraw it.

Why do you insist on referring to remainers, or even leavers who have voted agsinst what even you say is a shit deal, as sycophants.

I do not, or have never done, what you describe there - I would vote Remain before vote for that shit deal

The sycophants are those at Westminster that are assiduously striving to stop Brexit happening - stop not get the best deal

That is my justification - they are indeed sycophants of the EU and are acting in the EU's interests by deliberately undermining the UK's negotiating position

You have just misunderstood how and when I have used the word

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Why don't people who want to leave the EU, to 'give us more self determination' & 'do deals with other countries outside' consider that large countries such as USA & China will use our needy situation, to force us to accept stuff we don't want ?

They absolutely will.

Of course they fucking will. It’s insane to suggest otherwise. Talking back control ffs!

 

[mcfc1632]

It's just you, that doesn't understand that everyone else, fully understands how the backstop works.

The difference being that some perhaps don't agree, that we would allow the EU, to continue using it in bad faith, if a solution to the Irish border can be found.

If our Government is telling the truth, then of course technology will soon be the answer, so it will quickly be brought to a conclusion & the EU cancel the backstop, or risk having one of their most powerful, NATO allies, withdrawing cooperation etc.

If our Government is lying through its teeth about a 'solution' to the Irish border problem, than yes, we would be trapped in the backstop.

So yes, we would be trapped in the backstop.

utterly naïve bollocks

Most importantly you seen unable to understand how an unfettered backstop will actually be used

Those last 2 posts were just ignorance is bliss waffle

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Given that post - I am confident that I understand a lot more that you do

What you understand and what is true/accurate are most likely two very different things.

 

[mcfc1632]

Didn't the EU already agree to the withdrawal agreement though? Surely both parties need to be happy with the deal for it work out.

I'd say the burden is on us really since we initiated the whole thing so I don't really have a belief that the EU are to blame for our actions

I do not blame the EU at all - I have said many times that I admire their professionalism in the negotiations

May and Robbins have been utter incompetents and the unfettered backstop is their fuck-up - I bet there was a lot of champagne drank in Brussels that night

Why would the EU not just say thank you for that gift.

But it simply must go - it is ruinous for the UK

Probably it will take the risk of a no-deal for the EU to give up the gift that May gave them

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

I do not blame the EU at all - I have said many times that I admire their professionalism in the negotiations

May and Robbins have been utter incompetents and the unfettered backstop is their fuck-up - I bet there was a lot of champagne drank in Brussels that night

Why would the EU not just say thank you for that gift.

But it simply must go - it is ruinous for the UK

Probably it will take the risk of a no-deal for the EU to give up the gift that May gave them

What do you feel about the EU in particular is ruinous for the UK?

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Which is precisely what I mean by lack of goodwill.
DUP support this because they see it as circumventing the possibility of self determination enshrined in the GFA. It almost guarantees that they stay in the union.
At least that's how it looks from a nationalist point of view.

The lack of goodwill is the reason behind the backstop idea, isn't it?

The Irish government don't trust the UK government not to do something obnoxious, so there is no goodwill.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Coming in peace when I say this, but this deal Johnson has given Brussels is a turd. There is no way in hell any country on the planet would agree to an open doorway into their market, which apparently this deal does, with no agreement that would close if customs alignment between the UK and the EU drifted apart. This isn't a serious negotiation, it's being done so people think he's standing up to the EU. He's not, he's being a dick.

Correct. It has some of the worst elements of all outcomes the 3 main problems I see are:

1 - Non compatible with the GFA.
2 - Physical customs checks, infrastructure and restrictions on free trade that local business don't want. A massive issue that will never be supported by the local business community.
3 - A porous border that will not fully enforce either EU trading rules or WTO trading rules. It's basically wide open to smuggling.

It is basically no deal with some delay and some moving of the infrastructure away from the border (making it ineffective).

We must now go through the pantomime of pretending to take it seriously when it is half baked and clearly unfit for purpose. But it's all about the optics - how will this be knocked back.

 

[BobKowalski]

The EU will treat these proposals as an opening gambit as they at least show an understanding that the Irish border problem is a real and complex one and not made up and weaponised as Brexiteers fondly claim.

Assuming these proposals are a basis for talks we are obviously looking at months of negotiation and by presenting these proposals the U.K. Govt is accepting that fact and are therefore ackowledging an extension to A50 is necessary.

So the question is. Does Johnson put up a fight to prevent a logical extension to A50 and make Parliament do it or does he attempt to control the narrative by doing it himself claiming that these new U.K. proposals point to a way out of this mess?

 

[blueparrot]

I think it’s pretty clear now it doesn’t matter what the deal is or could have been. Labour and the other parties won’t vote for anything.

It will play into the conservatives hands as they can just say they want to stop Brexit

I will say it’s good to see the uk standing up to the eu and actually trying to negotiate unlike Theresa may. It’s up to the eu now whether they want this deal or no deal

Apparently there are bits the EU like and bits they don't. So while they will say no they will offer to negotiate around it a they don't want to be the ones slamming the door. Thing is though it won't be done this month so they'll most likely offer an extension to allow talks on his proposal to put the ball in Johnsons court.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

The lack of goodwill is the reason behind the backstop idea, isn't it?

The Irish government don't trust the UK government not to do something obnoxious, so there is no goodwill.

The current UK government? Certainly.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

The EU will treat these proposals as an opening gambit as they at least show an understanding that the Irish border problem is a real and complex one and not made up and weaponised as Brexiteers fondly claim.

Assuming these proposals are a basis for talks we are obviously looking at months of negotiation and by presenting these proposals the U.K. Govt is accepting that fact and are therefore ackowledging an extension to A50 is necessary.

So the question is. Does Johnson put up a fight to prevent a logical extension to A50 and make Parliament do it or does he attempt to control the narrative by doing it himself claiming that these new U.K. proposals point to a way out of this mess?

I don't think they are anywhere near a solution. The EU will not want to go into talks based on this as it has fundamental flaws - moving customs checks inland makes them ineffective, having them in first place makes the GFA redundant. They would have to move to the Irish sea which is back to where we were about 3 years ago. This proposal has not really moved things on.