Another new Brexit thread

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Nonsense? It would make no sense trying to unravel 300 years of integration in order to extract yourself from your principal frictionless market with virtually insuperable obstacles in the way of finding a new one. Brexit would kill any rational support for Scottish independence.
Of course - this is so obviously true that you have to wonder why it really needs to be explained - and yet there are those on here are insistent that they know better.……. (spoiler: they are without any knowledge or commonsense on the topic and clearly hopelessly wrong)

I listed just a few of the many examples of things will come to the fore should there be an indeyref2 after the UK had left the EU

You might be surprised that not a single post came back to refute these 'showstoppers' - there is a good reason for that - and there are very many more.

For the SNP Brexit is an outright existential issue

If the UK leaves they will get an indyref2 but likely not ever get a 'Yes' vote even if they had an indyref22.

And if that is the case - what is the point of them?
 
Read yesterday's discussion at around 11:30am and look for the reasons you said why different areas of Britain couldn't leave the UK when compared to Scotland. I'm not going to repeat it all again.
How about you just reference the page number. You clearly know it, since you have a reference time.

edit; wait wait wait. Are you seriously suggesting, in a conversation where you made a reference to "scottish citizens" living in England, is me advocating that Scotland is an "independent sovereign country", when the context was about Scotland gaining independence from the UK if we leave with no deal?
It's got to be done...

source.gif


No, dear boy, no... That is Scouser levels of desperate.
 
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Listening to LBC this morning and James O'B made reference to a set of tweets, I have looked them. I will repeat what was said as it is prescient.

PM Johnson seems to have a plan. It gives me no pleasure to say this but it will be difficult to stop.

The plan is not what some might expect. He is more interested in power than in Brexit. His aim is to fight and win a general election and to obtain a mandate for the next five years. The way he approaches Brexit should not be seen as cakeist and naïve. In policy terms it is: but the thing is that his Brexit plan is not intended to succeed. Instead, it is only intended to create the narrative around which a GE can be won.

First he will go to our EU friends appealing to their economic self interest, demanding things he knows he cannot get. He will present himself as a can-do dealer....whose plan has only been thwarted by intransigence in Brussels

Watch for the sharp shift in tone (which will come when the time is judged right). Erstwhile friends in the EU will become public enemy number one. The UK will be strong and confident. In extremis, we go it alone and leave without a deal.

But the plan is not to leave without a deal in October. That, as he knows, would cause huge disruption, and would not augur well for him as PM. The plan is to be ready to leave...but then to be thwarted by pubic enemy number 2, the remainer Parliament.

He will provoke the moderate Tories. He probably knows that they require a lot of provoking. He will not seek to undermine the confidence of the Labour Party or the Lib Dems. But he will starve the Brexit Party of political space.

He wants to be able to fight a General election , as the man who is standing up for the British people, against the twin evils of the EU and the remain establishment. Vote leave (dominic cummings) have, remember done this unexpectedly successfully once before.

To win he needs to neuter the Brexit Party and bank on the fact that the remain opposition will remain disunited.

All this points, as I said a couple of days ago, to an autumn GE. It is consistent with the UKs ability to concretise Brexit - both his new deal and no deal will remain stubbornly undefined until after the GE.

He has a good chance of success. The difficult task of delivering Brexit is deferred to after the GE … and by then who knows what the options may be, He can cross that bridge when he comes to it.

The easiest way to stop his plan is to prevent him from winning the GE. That depends on the opposition working together. Looking at the relationships between Corbyn, Surgeon, Swinson and Lucas, Johnson might well calculate he has nothing to fear.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The above was a series of tweets from Phil Sypris, a Professor of EU Law at Bristol University made on the 25th July this year.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My interpretation of the above is what I have been saying all along.... Johnson is a narcissistic liar who is only interested in power and will go to any lengths to consolidate his grip on the job he believes he is entitled too.

Johnson has used the whole Brexit debate and has actively encouraged the chaos around it for self serving interests and because of that he is not a **** he is a triple **** who could not give two fucks for anybody apart from himself.

Most intelligent observers have believed this is what he's up to for some time.

He thinks that getting the 35% hard leavers behind him will be enough to deliver 5 years as PM. I'm not sure he's correct on that.
 
Listening to LBC this morning and James O'B made reference to a set of tweets, I have looked them. I will repeat what was said as it is prescient.

PM Johnson seems to have a plan. It gives me no pleasure to say this but it will be difficult to stop.

The plan is not what some might expect. He is more interested in power than in Brexit. His aim is to fight and win a general election and to obtain a mandate for the next five years. The way he approaches Brexit should not be seen as cakeist and naïve. In policy terms it is: but the thing is that his Brexit plan is not intended to succeed. Instead, it is only intended to create the narrative around which a GE can be won.

First he will go to our EU friends appealing to their economic self interest, demanding things he knows he cannot get. He will present himself as a can-do dealer....whose plan has only been thwarted by intransigence in Brussels

Watch for the sharp shift in tone (which will come when the time is judged right). Erstwhile friends in the EU will become public enemy number one. The UK will be strong and confident. In extremis, we go it alone and leave without a deal.

But the plan is not to leave without a deal in October. That, as he knows, would cause huge disruption, and would not augur well for him as PM. The plan is to be ready to leave...but then to be thwarted by pubic enemy number 2, the remainer Parliament.

He will provoke the moderate Tories. He probably knows that they require a lot of provoking. He will not seek to undermine the confidence of the Labour Party or the Lib Dems. But he will starve the Brexit Party of political space.

He wants to be able to fight a General election , as the man who is standing up for the British people, against the twin evils of the EU and the remain establishment. Vote leave (dominic cummings) have, remember done this unexpectedly successfully once before.

To win he needs to neuter the Brexit Party and bank on the fact that the remain opposition will remain disunited.

All this points, as I said a couple of days ago, to an autumn GE. It is consistent with the UKs ability to concretise Brexit - both his new deal and no deal will remain stubbornly undefined until after the GE.

He has a good chance of success. The difficult task of delivering Brexit is deferred to after the GE … and by then who knows what the options may be, He can cross that bridge when he comes to it.

The easiest way to stop his plan is to prevent him from winning the GE. That depends on the opposition working together. Looking at the relationships between Corbyn, Surgeon, Swinson and Lucas, Johnson might well calculate he has nothing to fear.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The above was a series of tweets from Phil Sypris, a Professor of EU Law at Bristol University made on the 25th July this year.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My interpretation of the above is what I have been saying all along.... Johnson is a narcissistic liar who is only interested in power and will go to any lengths to consolidate his grip on the job he believes he is entitled too.

Johnson has used the whole Brexit debate and has actively encouraged the chaos around it for self serving interests and because of that he is not a **** he is a triple **** who could not give two fucks for anybody apart from himself.

This is almost word-for-word repeated in an article in the Spectator this morning which many believe came straight from Cummings. Not a single surprise in it.
 
There is a point next summer where the EU budget gets set and from that point onwards it becomes much more complex. Extensions wont go on beyond that point - it will be in long term or out.

I suspect we will have a GE before Christmas and an extension to January 31st. GE is almost impossible to call but I think it will be a hung parliament and a remain small majority. Labour will lead a co-alition and we will have a 2nd Ref some time next Spring, remain v soft brexit.

Whilst I tend to agree that's what will happen, it isn't what I think should happen. For many people, remain v soft brexit is no choice at all - it is remain v remain lite. The divisions in our society would be exacerbated by this, not resolved. Equally, Johnson's idea of crashing out is not only just as socially divisive, but economically far more damaging.

It seems to me that if we as a nation choose to amputate our own leg without anaesthetic, being clear that this is what we are choosing to do, so be it. I would hope the nation has more sense, but I can't see that this nightmare will come to an end unless a meaningful leave option is pitted against remain. Ideally, all three options - hard brexit, soft brexit & remain would go against each other on the basis of a single transferable vote, but just as a hard brexit v no deal brexit choice would do nothing to heal the wounds in our society, neither would (say) remain v retain membership of customs union.
 
Did I? When? Or have you taken what I've said out of context? (again)

I mean there's this;


But it's quite obviously meant as sarcasm, and was from 1 Aug, so i'm not sure which post you're on about.
It is modus operandi

Take it as a perverse form of flattery - he puts effort into trawling through your previous posts desperate to find something that he can twist to mean something other what was said/intended

As I say - take it as a form of flattery - I do
 
But it wasn't 62% of Scots, it was 62% of people in Scotland that voted on the day of the referendum. 1.66m people in a population of registered 4m voters of an estimated 5.4m populous. No matter how you slice it, that's not "62% of Scots".

Hey, you're always one of those correcting people whenever they phrase it as "52% of British people voted to leave".
love it ;-)
 
It is modus operandi

Take it as a perverse form of flattery - he puts effort into trawling through your previous posts desperate to find something that he can twist to mean something other what was said/intended

As I say - take it as a form of flattery - I do
Apparently it's taken from him talking about wealthy scottish citizens making money in England moving back to scotland taking their wealth with them, and me stating that they made their wealth in England and doubting they'd have the same level of success in an independent Scotland, if Scotland voted to become independent as a result of brexit, is me advocating that Scotland is a sovereign country right now...

I've been chuckling hard; no wonder he didn't link it himself. ;)
 
How about you just reference the page number. You clearly know it, since you have a reference time.

edit; wait wait wait. Are you seriously suggesting, in a conversation where you made a reference to "scottish citizens" living in England, is me advocating that Scotland is an "independent sovereign country"?
It's got to be done...

source.gif


No, dear boy, no... That is Scouser levels of desperate.
No you advocated that the South East is not a country (which of course it isn't) as a reason why it could not secede.
Whereas Scotland.......

I have not brought sovereignty into the discussion by the way, you have.
Scotland is a non-sovereign country, part of the sovereign country that is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Page 1724 by the way.
 
No you advocated that the South East is not a country (which of course it isn't) as a reason why it could not secede.
Whereas Scotland.......

I have not brought sovereignty into the discussion by the way, you have.
Scotland is a non-sovereign country, part of the sovereign country that is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Page 1724 by the way.
And i also stated Scotland was not a country in the sovereign sense either. Both the south east and scotland are regions of the UK. Now say again, where is that me saying "Scotland is a country" YOUR words.

You see, you do it to yourself half the time.
 
Yes it was, but it doesn't change the reality that Scotland is not a sovereign state in comparison to it's other union members.

I'd say it follows that Scotland can just self deterministicly redefine it's relation trough referendum at any time, if precedents showed they clearly could.

Are you then advocating that England should also be granted independence from Scotland via referendum?

In the Belgian federal structure you wouldn't have politicians of Flemmish parliament messing with Walloon parliament, it goes both ways. Triple even.
 
It is modus operandi

Take it as a perverse form of flattery - he puts effort into trawling through your previous posts desperate to find something that he can twist to mean something other what was said/intended

As I say - take it as a form of flattery - I do
How many times have you talked about me today?
You're clearly obsessed.
 
I'd say it follows that Scotland can just self deterministicly redefine it's relation trough referendum at any time, if precedents showed they clearly could.



In the Belgian federal structure you wouldn't have politicians of Flemmish parliament messing with Walloon parliament, it goes both ways. Triple even.
No, not unless the UK Parliament approves it, first.
 
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