Another new Brexit thread

[George Hannah]

Far from it, if they have to face tariffs and regulatory differences to their biggest export market while NI don't.

The UK and US are Scotland's biggest export markets https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication

 

[aguero93:20]

See below.
If Brexit happens the EU will be severely weakened, possibly terminally. They will be looking to lose poor nations not acquire them, both Scotland and Wales will soon be counting their current blessings. As prospective small member states, separated from the EU by their primary market, their economies could never survive unsupported in the trading environment that would follow our departure. Precedents just don't come into it, economic interest will drive all the decisions and England holds all the cards in that context. As I said, the NI is different but this deal gives the Unionists their best chance of remaining in the UK.

The EU can easily survive losing the UK, most states are net contributors right now. Scotland may not be able to survive without the EU market if it's as delicate as you think. Yet again mate you're going from A to Z(-14×32) without finding any reliable alphabet. Rhetoric without substance.

 

[aguero93:20]

The UK and US are their biggest export markets https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Econo

The UK and US are Scotland's biggest export markets [URL]https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication

my/Exports/ESSPublication[/URL]

Yet NI will have unbridled access to both EU and UK (total EU dwarfs USA) yet Scotland will be asked to choose between UK/USA and EU. There's no potential unrest there. Not at all.

 

[George Hannah]

Er. Yeah. George put down the hippie crack and clear your head.

'Deep Wound' (if it happens)

 

[Saddleworth2]

The SNP wake starts on October 31st if a genuine Brexit happens. Independence would simply never be a rational option if the UK is outside the EU, it would mean they are finished along with Plaid - both flying straight to earth. Clearly the situation in Northern Ireland is different.

Finished? Well let’s see.

 

[BobKowalski]

Yet NI will have unbridled access to both EU and UK (total EU dwarfs USA) yet Scotland will be asked to choose between UK/USA and EU. There's no potential unrest there. Not at all.

Brexit is ‘whack-a-mole’. Think you solve a problem today and another pops up as a consequence tomorrow.

 

[George Hannah]

The EU can easily survive losing the UK, most states are net contributors right now. Scotland may not be able to survive without the EU market if it's as delicate as you think. Yet again mate you're going from A to Z(-14×32) without finding any reliable alphabet. Rhetoric without substance.

It hasn't happened yet, when and if it does the EU chickens will be coming home to roost and most of those net contributors will be exposed for what they are - net liabilities- when our 14% isn't there to balance the books. The whole EU edifice is a house of cards and a big wind is coming - you'd be better off outside with us.

 

[BobKowalski]

'Deep Wound' (if it happens)

Lol. Seriously though if NI is different then what is a deep 400 year old Union between Scotland and England?

If England wants to sail off into the distance in search of dragons and El Dorado then fine but in the meantime the other nations may eye up a custom built escape route for one of its number and think ‘if we can reverse engineer that then we could be in business’.

 

[aguero93:20]

It hasn't happened yet, when and if it does the EU chickens will be coming home to roost and most of those net contributors will be exposed for what they are - net liabilities- when our 14% isn't there to balance the books. The whole EU edifice is a house of cards and a big wind is coming - you'd be better off outside with us.

Let's leave the 'Can the EU survive without the UK argument' for a second mate. It can. If the EU actually did fail George, it's a bigger economic bloc than the USA. Do you know the saying 'when the USA sneezes the world catches a cold'? Inside, outside, in your dystopian scenario it makes no difference. It's the 2008 crash multiplied by 100.

 

[hilts]

Yet NI will have unbridled access to both EU and UK (total EU dwarfs USA) yet Scotland will be asked to choose between UK/USA and EU. There's no potential unrest there. Not at all.

And what will England’s and Wales choice be?

 

[AlexWilliamsGloves]

So, whats happening? Am i joining the 'RA or wha?

 

[aguero93:20]

And what will England’s and Wales choice be?

Well in England's case, as they've shown, they can do whatever they want as they dominate the UK and the other nation's opinions simply don't matter. The Welsh are boot lickers so they'll just follow wherever you lot go.

 

[George Hannah]

Lol. Seriously though if NI is different then what is a deep 400 year old Union between Scotland and England?

If England wants to sail off into the distance in search of dragons and El Dorado then fine but in the meantime the other nations may eye up a custom built escape route for one of its number and think ‘if we can reverse engineer that then we could be in business’.

That's exactly the reason why Scottish and Welsh independence has never made any sense anyway, unpicking four centuries of integration is put into perspective by the current car crash following just 40 years! If we take them out of the EU as well the nationalists are toast.

 

[hilts]

Well in England's case, as they've shown, they can do whatever they want as they dominate the UK and the other nation's opinions simply don't matter. The Welsh are boot lickers so they'll just follow wherever you lot go.

A sidestep which I would answer but you didn’t answer mine, so please answer my question.

 

[BobKowalski]

So, whats happening? Am i joining the 'RA or wha?

NI will exist in ‘parallel realities’ - not my phrase but does sum it up. Nominally NI will be in the U.K. customs union but in practice will be in the EU custom union. Big question is what does this mean for NI/GB customs checks. Actually there are a lot of questions but that appears to be roughly where we are now. There is no confirmation on any of this but Irish Times and RTE are running with it.

 

[George Hannah]

Let's leave the 'Can the EU survive without the UK argument' for a second mate. It can. If the EU actually did fail George, it's a bigger economic bloc than the USA. Do you know the saying 'when the USA sneezes the world catches a cold'? Inside, outside, in your dystopian scenario it makes no difference. It's the 2008 crash multiplied by 100.

If the EU collapses its member states don't all follow suit. If the federal plan is abandoned we could even rejoin.
Anyway, as I keep saying, it hasn' t happened yet and my money has been on us staying in since March. Please note though I try to make falsfiable predictions, sometimes I am delighted to be wrong ;)

 

[aguero93:20]

A sidestep which I would answer but you didn’t answer mine, so please answer my question.

Literally, England can choose to do whatever they want. They make up around 75% to 80% of the voting weight of the UK. Wales? They don't have the weight of a prominent nationalist movement so they'll get a pat on the head and move on. Don't mistake an honest answer for sarcasm. Scotland and NI are the ones being dragged into something against their will by the weight of the English vote and the lack of failsafes such as a veto.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Let's leave the 'Can the EU survive without the UK argument' for a second mate. It can. If the EU actually did fail George, it's a bigger economic bloc than the USA. Do you know the saying 'when the USA sneezes the world catches a cold'? Inside, outside, in your dystopian scenario it makes no difference. It's the 2008 crash multiplied by 100.

At least he'll get to say 'I told you so'.

 

[BobKowalski]

That's exactly the reason why Scottish and Welsh independence has never made any sense anyway, unpicking four centuries of integration is put into perspective by the current car crash following just 40 years! If we take them out of the EU as well the nationalists are toast.

But if the EU and U.K. cook up a potential solution to some of the trade issues then a car crash can be averted.

Anyway let’s wait and see what comes out of all this. It may fly, it may be dead tomorrow.

 

[BobKowalski]

At least he'll get to say 'I told you so'.

Getting to the nub of what really matters. Winning an argument on the Internet and rubbing it in everyones face :)