Another new Brexit thread

[hgblue]

But calling him BoJo, like I did initially, must be questioned?

I take every possible opportunity to call him Boris ;)

 

[mcfc1632]

SNP entire raison d'etre is for Scotland to be independent. They will never give up that ultimate objective irrespective of how popular they are in the country. Anyone that thinks they are 'dead' if we Brexit is deluded. The party has some incredibly competent people in it as well as a good few bam pots. they will not call another referendum until they are confident they will win it by a margin. (most recent poll I saw was 52/48 in favour of independence). They will want much clearer blue water than that over a sustained period. A further Tory win at the next GE might well achieve that.

The surprise for me is the unwillingness to debate what logically should be a key issue for you and other Scotland based posters based on what should be the main factors that will determine in which direction opinion shifts.

I have stated two clearly held views

1. That should the UK not have actually cleanly left the EU then the prospect of a YES vote increases.

This concurs with your views about 'opinion' possibly continuing to slowly shift in that direction urged on by the SNP and facilitated by the significantly reduced level of difficulty presented by Scotland leaving the UK. This means that the level of passion/fervour/sense of grievance can carry the vote.

I say: ".....facilitated by the significantly reduced level of difficulty presented by Scotland leaving the UK."

Because in that scenario Scotland will not have to face the major difficulties that will be presented with regards to trade, transport of goods, FOM etc. they would have to face if the UK had already fully left the EU.

2. That should the UK have actually cleanly left the EU then the prospect of a NO vote significantly increases.

This is the scenario none of you seem to wish to consider - I can only assume because it is really inconvenient.

Imagine the scenario:

It is, let's say, 2024. The UK has left the EU, including the SM and CU 3 years previously - let's say based on the emerging Boris deal.

In 2024 Scotland decides to leave the UK.

Trading conditions: which were either really difficult, with the motorways of Kent essentially lorry parks or they have settled down and things are running 'OK' though nothing like as smoothly as before the UK left the EU.

What faces Scotland now as an independent nation?
To what extent is the 64% of its trade which is with the constituent parts of the UK suddenly the subject of restrictions/inspections/tariffs etc.?

The transport of goods to its next - although much much smaller - major market, the EU, has in the main have to be transported through the UK and will become the subject of border checks, restrictions/inspections/tariffs etc. before entering the UK for onward transit.

Border control & Movement of people: The many issues that we have heard about difficulties should the UK leave the EU now pertain to Scotland - in spades!! Beyond the impact to the many people that cross that border each day, what will happen to the tourist industry and the many visitors from around the world that initially fly into London but include Scotland in the itinerary if that becomes an administration burden?

Of course Scotland will have to assume the responsibility for protecting the integrity of the UK's SM and the UK would need to be convinced of their proposals of how this will operate - the UK would certainly not want a series of border checkpoints with physical infrastructure.

Perhaps we may be able to agree some form of backstop arrangement where a 'newly independent Scotland' can retain the ability of easy trade and travel but be subject to full compliance of all regulations that the UK government - with no input from Scotland - decide to bring forward. Scotland can exit that arrangement when it has satisfied the UK - at the UK's sole discretion because the backstop will be unfettered - that all border issues are sorted and there is no risk to the UK's SM.

Divorce settlement and unpicking so many years of integration:

Of course the WA will have to be agreed before the UK and the newly independent Scotland can start to discuss an FTA. Now what would be the appropriate costs to charge for Scotland to continue to make use of core infrastructure and systems?

As one of many examples, lets, take the payments of benefits to its citizens. Despite the success of its newly established Social Security Scotland agency, payments are still made using UK (DWP) systems and that will need to be the case for many years (I know) - what is a fair charge for that etc. etc.

These are only sample examples of the difficulty that the SNP - in what will be a campaign environment - will have in convincing the Scottish electorate to vote YES.

At this point of what should be 'the height of desire for independence' there is barely a majority - how is the reality of that scenario going to push opinion towards YES?

In fact it gets worse!!!

If things are going well for the UK - that is hardly going to help the SNP cause

If things are not going well for the UK and trading with the EU is problematic - that is also not going to help the cause - how can it? The people of Scotland will be being asked to select major problems to put on top of already major problems - 64% of trade is with the UK - 4 times the level with the EU - and most of that via UK infrastructure.

I am just trying to be factual - and I have said that I am concerned that the future will be one of an increased level of suppressed grievance - but can you make the case that in the scenario that the UK has already fully left the EU that the situation would drive the YES vote up??

I doubt anyone can but I would be interested to hear you make that case.

TBF - I am also just blowing out of the water the 100s of posts that have expressed certainty that a clean Brexit will be the cause of the UK breaking up. Those statements are not based on consideration of any factor other than emotion and do not bear scrutiny. That some making those statements run away from discussion - not aimed at you @Saddleworth2 - suggests that they have no substance.

 

[Metal Biker]

Yes. He’s not a cuddly toy.

BoJo = cuddly toy.

You learn something new every day...

 

[BobKowalski]

Some interesting stuff today the main one being security concerns caused Johnson to back away from no deal and gave renewed impetus to securing a deal



Sunday Times in Ireland reporting on the threat of Unionist violence over the proposed plan and Rees Mogg is urging backing for the proposed plan even though it involves ‘compromise’.

Personally I think until we see actual legal text impossible to guage on what side, for or against, everyone falls.

 

[mcfc1632]

Good point, is he is a clown?

I think most of us know the answer to that one

 

[BobKowalski]

The surprise for me is the unwillingness to debate what logically should be a key issue for you and other Scotland based posters based on what should be the main factors that will determine in which direction opinion shifts.

I have stated two clearly held views

1. That should the UK not have actually cleanly left the EU then the prospect of a YES vote increases.

This concurs with your views about 'opinion' possibly continuing to slowly shift in that direction urged on by the SNP and facilitated by the significantly reduced level of difficulty presented by Scotland leaving the UK. This means that the level of passion/fervour/sense of grievance can carry the vote.

I say: ".....facilitated by the significantly reduced level of difficulty presented by Scotland leaving the UK."

Because in that scenario Scotland will not have to face the major difficulties that will be presented with regards to trade, transport of goods, FOM etc. they would have to face if the UK had already fully left the EU.

2. That should the UK have actually cleanly left the EU then the prospect of a NO vote significantly increases.

This is the scenario none of you seem to wish to consider - I can only assume because it is really inconvenient.

Imagine the scenario:

It is, let's say, 2024. The UK has left the EU, including the SM and CU 3 years previously - let's say based on the emerging Boris deal.

In 2024 Scotland decides to leave the UK.

Trading conditions: which were either really difficult, with the motorways of Kent essentially lorry parks or they have settled down and things are running 'OK' though nothing like as smoothly as before the UK left the EU.

What faces Scotland now as an independent nation?
To what extent is the 64% of its trade which is with the constituent parts of the UK suddenly the subject of restrictions/inspections/tariffs etc.?

The transport of goods to its next - although much much smaller - major market, the EU, has in the main have to be transported through the UK and will become the subject of border checks, restrictions/inspections/tariffs etc. before entering the UK for onward transit.

Border control & Movement of people: The many issues that we have heard about difficulties should the UK leave the EU now pertain to Scotland - in spades!! Beyond the impact to the many people that cross that border each day, what will happen to the tourist industry and the many visitors from around the world that initially fly into London but include Scotland in the itinerary if that becomes an administration burden?

Of course Scotland will have to assume the responsibility for protecting the integrity of the UK's SM and the UK would need to be convinced of their proposals of how this will operate - the UK would certainly not want a series of border checkpoints with physical infrastructure.

Perhaps we may be able to agree some form of backstop arrangement where a 'newly independent Scotland' can retain the ability of easy trade and travel but be subject to full compliance of all regulations that the UK government - with no input from Scotland - decide to bring forward. Scotland can exit that arrangement when it has satisfied the UK - at the UK's sole discretion because the backstop will be unfettered - that all border issues are sorted and there is no risk to the UK's SM.

Divorce settlement and unpicking so many years of integration:

Of course the WA will have to be agreed before the UK and the newly independent Scotland can start to discuss an FTA. Now what would be the appropriate costs to charge for Scotland to continue to make use of core infrastructure and systems?

As one of many examples, lets, take the payments of benefits to its citizens. Despite the success of its newly established Social Security Scotland agency, payments are still made using UK (DWP) systems and that will need to be the case for many years (I know) - what is a fair charge for that etc. etc.

These are only sample examples of the difficulty that the SNP - in what will be a campaign environment - will have in convincing the Scottish electorate to vote YES.

At this point of what should be 'the height of desire for independence' there is barely a majority - how is the reality of that scenario going to push opinion towards YES?

In fact it gets worse!!!

If things are going well for the UK - that is hardly going to help the SNP cause

If things are not going well for the UK and trading with the EU is problematic - that is also not going to help the cause - how can it? The people of Scotland will be being asked to select major problems to put on top of already major problems - 64% of trade is with the UK - 4 times the level with the EU - and most of that via UK infrastructure.

I am just trying to be factual - and I have said that I am concerned that the future will be one of an increased level of suppressed grievance - but can you make the case that in the scenario that the UK has already fully left the EU that the situation would drive the YES vote up??

I doubt anyone can but I would be interested to hear you make that case.

Wales and Scotland reverse engineer the NI customs model agreed by the EU and U.K. to minimise the land border issues. Politically these two countries also reject the English isolationist policy of the Tories/Brexiteers.

The current English obsession to leave the EU is building a future model of how,and how not, to leave a Union.

 

[mcfc1632]

BoJo = cuddly toy.

You learn something new every day...

He needs to be demeaned

All people must hate him....

You know the routine, nut don't worry - I think that Jezza is still OK

 

[hammocity]

The favourite for the composition of the next Parliament should we have an Election is for a Conservative Government with no overall majority.

Whatever the rights and wrongs the Brexit deal has to go through for the sake of democracy.

I didn’t vote for Brexit but it has to happen so we can deal with it and crack on with our lives.

We don't know what effect it will have on us but ffs just get it done, we will as always adapt to the situation, it’s just got out of hand.

 

[Coatigan]

The surprise for me is the unwillingness to debate what logically should be a key issue for you and other Scotland based posters based on what should be the main factors that will determine in which direction opinion shifts.

I have stated two clearly held views

1. That should the UK not have actually cleanly left the EU then the prospect of a YES vote increases.

This concurs with your views about 'opinion' possibly continuing to slowly shift in that direction urged on by the SNP and facilitated by the significantly reduced level of difficulty presented by Scotland leaving the UK. This means that the level of passion/fervour/sense of grievance can carry the vote.

I say: ".....facilitated by the significantly reduced level of difficulty presented by Scotland leaving the UK."

Because in that scenario Scotland will not have to face the major difficulties that will be presented with regards to trade, transport of goods, FOM etc. they would have to face if the UK had already fully left the EU.

2. That should the UK have actually cleanly left the EU then the prospect of a NO vote significantly increases.

This is the scenario none of you seem to wish to consider - I can only assume because it is really inconvenient.

Imagine the scenario:

It is, let's say, 2024. The UK has left the EU, including the SM and CU 3 years previously - let's say based on the emerging Boris deal.

In 2024 Scotland decides to leave the UK.

Trading conditions: which were either really difficult, with the motorways of Kent essentially lorry parks or they have settled down and things are running 'OK' though nothing like as smoothly as before the UK left the EU.

What faces Scotland now as an independent nation?
To what extent is the 64% of its trade which is with the constituent parts of the UK suddenly the subject of restrictions/inspections/tariffs etc.?

The transport of goods to its next - although much much smaller - major market, the EU, has in the main have to be transported through the UK and will become the subject of border checks, restrictions/inspections/tariffs etc. before entering the UK for onward transit.

Border control & Movement of people: The many issues that we have heard about difficulties should the UK leave the EU now pertain to Scotland - in spades!! Beyond the impact to the many people that cross that border each day, what will happen to the tourist industry and the many visitors from around the world that initially fly into London but include Scotland in the itinerary if that becomes an administration burden?

Of course Scotland will have to assume the responsibility for protecting the integrity of the UK's SM and the UK would need to be convinced of their proposals of how this will operate - the UK would certainly not want a series of border checkpoints with physical infrastructure.

Perhaps we may be able to agree some form of backstop arrangement where a 'newly independent Scotland' can retain the ability of easy trade and travel but be subject to full compliance of all regulations that the UK government - with no input from Scotland - decide to bring forward. Scotland can exit that arrangement when it has satisfied the UK - at the UK's sole discretion because the backstop will be unfettered - that all border issues are sorted and there is no risk to the UK's SM.

Divorce settlement and unpicking so many years of integration:

Of course the WA will have to be agreed before the UK and the newly independent Scotland can start to discuss an FTA. Now what would be the appropriate costs to charge for Scotland to continue to make use of core infrastructure and systems?

As one of many examples, lets, take the payments of benefits to its citizens. Despite the success of its newly established Social Security Scotland agency, payments are still made using UK (DWP) systems and that will need to be the case for many years (I know) - what is a fair charge for that etc. etc.

These are only sample examples of the difficulty that the SNP - in what will be a campaign environment - will have in convincing the Scottish electorate to vote YES.

At this point of what should be 'the height of desire for independence' there is barely a majority - how is the reality of that scenario going to push opinion towards YES?

In fact it gets worse!!!

If things are going well for the UK - that is hardly going to help the SNP cause

If things are not going well for the UK and trading with the EU is problematic - that is also not going to help the cause - how can it? The people of Scotland will be being asked to select major problems to put on top of already major problems - 64% of trade is with the UK - 4 times the level with the EU - and most of that via UK infrastructure.

I am just trying to be factual - and I have said that I am concerned that the future will be one of an increased level of suppressed grievance - but can you make the case that in the scenario that the UK has already fully left the EU that the situation would drive the YES vote up??

I doubt anyone can but I would be interested to hear you make that case.

TBF - I am also just blowing out of the water the 100s of posts that have expressed certainty that a clean Brexit will be the cause of the UK breaking up. Those statements are not based on consideration of any factor other than emotion and do not bear scrutiny. That some making those statements run away from discussion - not aimed at you @Saddleworth2 - suggests that they have no substance.

And i put it to you good sir..

That you must be living in some weird alternate unparallel reality.

 

[mcfc1632]

Wales and Scotland reverse engineer the NI customs model agreed by the EU and U.K. to minimise the land border issues. Politically these two countries also reject the English isolationist policy of the Tories/Brexiteers.

The current English obsession to leave the EU is building a future model of how,and how not, to leave a Union.

Think you might need to think that through a bit more

 

[west didsblue]

The surprise for me is the unwillingness to debate what logically should be a key issue for you and other Scotland based posters based on what should be the main factors that will determine in which direction opinion shifts.

I have stated two clearly held views

1. That should the UK not have actually cleanly left the EU then the prospect of a YES vote increases.

This concurs with your views about 'opinion' possibly continuing to slowly shift in that direction urged on by the SNP and facilitated by the significantly reduced level of difficulty presented by Scotland leaving the UK. This means that the level of passion/fervour/sense of grievance can carry the vote.

I say: ".....facilitated by the significantly reduced level of difficulty presented by Scotland leaving the UK."

Because in that scenario Scotland will not have to face the major difficulties that will be presented with regards to trade, transport of goods, FOM etc. they would have to face if the UK had already fully left the EU.

2. That should the UK have actually cleanly left the EU then the prospect of a NO vote significantly increases.

This is the scenario none of you seem to wish to consider - I can only assume because it is really inconvenient.

Imagine the scenario:

It is, let's say, 2024. The UK has left the EU, including the SM and CU 3 years previously - let's say based on the emerging Boris deal.

In 2024 Scotland decides to leave the UK.

Trading conditions: which were either really difficult, with the motorways of Kent essentially lorry parks or they have settled down and things are running 'OK' though nothing like as smoothly as before the UK left the EU.

What faces Scotland now as an independent nation?
To what extent is the 64% of its trade which is with the constituent parts of the UK suddenly the subject of restrictions/inspections/tariffs etc.?

The transport of goods to its next - although much much smaller - major market, the EU, has in the main have to be transported through the UK and will become the subject of border checks, restrictions/inspections/tariffs etc. before entering the UK for onward transit.

Border control & Movement of people: The many issues that we have heard about difficulties should the UK leave the EU now pertain to Scotland - in spades!! Beyond the impact to the many people that cross that border each day, what will happen to the tourist industry and the many visitors from around the world that initially fly into London but include Scotland in the itinerary if that becomes an administration burden?

Of course Scotland will have to assume the responsibility for protecting the integrity of the UK's SM and the UK would need to be convinced of their proposals of how this will operate - the UK would certainly not want a series of border checkpoints with physical infrastructure.

Perhaps we may be able to agree some form of backstop arrangement where a 'newly independent Scotland' can retain the ability of easy trade and travel but be subject to full compliance of all regulations that the UK government - with no input from Scotland - decide to bring forward. Scotland can exit that arrangement when it has satisfied the UK - at the UK's sole discretion because the backstop will be unfettered - that all border issues are sorted and there is no risk to the UK's SM.

Divorce settlement and unpicking so many years of integration:

Of course the WA will have to be agreed before the UK and the newly independent Scotland can start to discuss an FTA. Now what would be the appropriate costs to charge for Scotland to continue to make use of core infrastructure and systems?

As one of many examples, lets, take the payments of benefits to its citizens. Despite the success of its newly established Social Security Scotland agency, payments are still made using UK (DWP) systems and that will need to be the case for many years (I know) - what is a fair charge for that etc. etc.

These are only sample examples of the difficulty that the SNP - in what will be a campaign environment - will have in convincing the Scottish electorate to vote YES.

At this point of what should be 'the height of desire for independence' there is barely a majority - how is the reality of that scenario going to push opinion towards YES?

In fact it gets worse!!!

If things are going well for the UK - that is hardly going to help the SNP cause

If things are not going well for the UK and trading with the EU is problematic - that is also not going to help the cause - how can it? The people of Scotland will be being asked to select major problems to put on top of already major problems - 64% of trade is with the UK - 4 times the level with the EU - and most of that via UK infrastructure.

I am just trying to be factual - and I have said that I am concerned that the future will be one of an increased level of suppressed grievance - but can you make the case that in the scenario that the UK has already fully left the EU that the situation would drive the YES vote up??

I doubt anyone can but I would be interested to hear you make that case.

TBF - I am also just blowing out of the water the 100s of posts that have expressed certainty that a clean Brexit will be the cause of the UK breaking up. Those statements are not based on consideration of any factor other than emotion and do not bear scrutiny. That some making those statements run away from discussion - not aimed at you @Saddleworth2 - suggests that they have no substance.

Wtf is a clean Brexit other than a figment of your imagination?

 

[BobKowalski]

Think you might need to think that through a bit more

No. You need to counter it. Put up or shut up.

 

[mcfc1632]

And i put it to you good sir..

That you must be living in some weird alternate unparallel reality.

Actually a bit surprised you did not at least attempt to deal with the scenario

I will not ask you to explain why what I say is incorrect - because you plainly cannot

That does not matter - at the heart of what I am pointing out is that those that bang the drum the Brexit will drive the break in the UK are, other than emotion towards independence going up, ignoring reality and facts

Inconvenient truths make people look the other way - you prove my point for me

 

[blueparrot]

The favourite for the composition of the next Parliament should we have an Election is for a Conservative Government with no overall majority.

Whatever the rights and wrongs the Brexit deal has to go through for the sake of democracy.

I didn’t vote for Brexit but it has to happen so we can deal with it and crack on with our life’s.

We don't know what effect it will have on us but ffs just get it done, we will as always adapt to the situation, it’s just got out of hand.

Not sure it is, if the tories don’t have an overall majority then unless they are close enough to get a majority with DUP support it will be impossible to form a government and Labour plus Liberal / SNP would be more likely. Think the tories would need to win a majority or be within 10 seats of one to govern. Especially if we have a deal and Farage goes after them.
So even if we get a withdrawal agreement by 31st and move to transition the new deal could look very different depending on who’s negotiating it.

 

[mcfc1632]

No. You need to counter it. Put up or shut up.

Nope - that lazy fiction was not a counter to my post - so I say the same to you

 

[west didsblue]

Nope - that lazy fiction was not a counter to my post - so I say the same to you

Supreme irony mentioning lazy fiction.

Edit: Actually I take it back. Your fictitious scenario obviously took some effort. Still fiction though.

 

[George Hannah]

Good idea, I need to think of an appropriate title, perhaps something like:
'Diary of a missionary'
'Crusading - amongst the prejudiced masses'
'Teaching objectivity amongst the close-minded'
Something like that - ideas welcome;-)
Bet you attract a few snide replies to your post though.

You are entirely correct once more ;)
I am deeply impressed by your sustained and polite efforts to educate the one-eyed on here and to defend the blatantly obvious facts which they seek to deny. BM is not alone though, just watched Jezzer's annointed successor Rebecca Long Bailey on Marr. She's explained how the Labour Party will oppose any deal ageed by the EU and put it to a second referendum when they win the GE, or possibly before it by preventing a GE for 6 months+ by installing a coalition of losers.

Following that was Ms Sturgeon telling us that a country with the largest deficit in the world would rejoin the EU post Brexit after a resounding independence victory -
"Which country in the developed world has the biggest budget shortfall? A black hole in the public finances larger than the likes of Italy and the rest of southern Europe, bigger than the US under spendthrift Donald Trump and double that of debt-ridden Japan.That dubious honour would go to Scotland if it were an independent country. Its £13bn shortfall is equivalent to more than half the UK’s total notional fiscal deficit despite having less than a tenth of the population, it was revealed this week."

 

[blueparrot]

Wales and Scotland reverse engineer the NI customs model agreed by the EU and U.K. to minimise the land border issues. Politically these two countries also reject the English isolationist policy of the Tories/Brexiteers.

The current English obsession to leave the EU is building a future model of how,and how not, to leave a Union.

Pretty much, personally cant see Scotland and most likely Wales too demanding the same deal as N Ireland, how they go about getting it I’m not sure. If they did though I could see the N, Irish, Scottish and Welsh economies booming and England getting left behind.

 

[west didsblue]

You are entirely correct once more ;)
I am deeply impressed by your sustained and polite efforts to educate the one-eyed on here and to defend the blatantly obvious factss which they seek to deny. BM is not alone though, just watched Jezzer's annointed successor Rebecca Long Bailey on Marr. She's explained how the Labour Party will oppose any deal ageed by the EU and put it to a second referendum when they win the GE, or possibly before it by preventing a GE for 6 months+ by installing a coalition of losers. Following that was Ms Sturgeon telling us that a country with the largest deficit in the world would rejoin the EU post Brexit after a resounding independence victory -
"Which country in the developed world has the biggest budget shortfall? A black hole in the public finances larger than the likes of Italy and the rest of southern Europe, bigger than the US under spendthrift Donald Trump and double that of debt-ridden Japan.That dubious honour would go to Scotland if it were an independent country. Its £13bn shortfall is equivalent to more than half the UK’s total notional fiscal deficit despite having less than a tenth of the population, it was revealed this week."

You need to extract your head from his arse and wake up to reality.

 

[Ric]

But calling him BoJo, like I did initially, must be questioned?

I didn’t say it must be questioned, although I do find it a bit weird that anyone would choose to call him by an affectionate nickname instead of his actual name. Each to their own though.