Another new Brexit thread

[BobKowalski]

No, we are in the landing zone now (more cringey brexit speak) so please buckle up and expect some turbulence whilst we overshoot the runway 20 times before the deadline of tonight - latest update from ATC

gabrielabaczynska @gbaczynska




#BREXIT: EU'S BARNIER TOLD EU27 THAT LATEST PROPOSALS FROM BRITAIN ARE NOT ENOUGH - EU DIPLOMATIC SOURCES
EU'S BARNIER SAID NEEDS AGREEMENT ON LEGAL TEXT BY THE END OF TUESDAY TO RECOMMEND TO MEMBER STATES ON WEDNESDAY THAT EU LEADERS APPROVE DEAL AT SUMMIT - EU DIPLOMATS

Yeah it’s all about the legal text. We have until midnight tonight to meet the summit deadline. We want out on 31st October and not have to be forced to ask for an extension then come up with text. And text that we like. Kind of getting the impression Barnier is squeezing Johnson against his ‘do or die’ pledge. Macron has said the same in a call with Johnson. The counter is that Dublin also want a deal and these new proposals to work so Barnier has his own pressures.

Should be an interesting day.

 

[Damocles]

Brexit dead yet?

I hear George Romero's making a film about it

 

[1.618034]

Brexit dead yet?

It died about a year ago, mate.

I hear George Romero's making a film about it

Quite.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Brexit dead yet?

Going swimmingly, borders through our own internal territories. You love to see it :/

 

[inbetween]

Yeah it’s all about the legal text. We have until midnight tonight to meet the summit deadline. We want out on 31st October and not have to be forced to ask for an extension then come up with text. And text that we like. Kind of getting the impression Barnier is squeezing Johnson against his ‘do or die’ pledge. Macron has said the same in a call with Johnson. The counter is that Dublin also want a deal and these new proposals to work so Barnier has his own pressures.

Should be an interesting day.

It's interesting that Ireland had broken message somewhat last week.

The EU have to weigh the fact that Labour/Lib Dems will probably never win an election so even with extension there is nothing left but this deal.

If Boris did win an election with a majority then there is only the prospect of no deal and an even harder negotiation on the deal.

If there is a hung Parliament then we are back where we are now.

If I was the EU then I would be cashing in because for all other avenues all bets are off..

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

The EU have to weigh the fact that Labour/Lib Dems will probably never win an election so even with extension there is nothing left but this deal.

I do have to give the conservatives credit, if any other party had been at the helm with the mayhem we've seen over the last few years they'd be finished.
As it is I see no way they lose the upcoming election which I find astonishing

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Yeah it’s all about the legal text. We have until midnight tonight to meet the summit deadline. We want out on 31st October and not have to be forced to ask for an extension then come up with text. And text that we like. Kind of getting the impression Barnier is squeezing Johnson against his ‘do or die’ pledge. Macron has said the same in a call with Johnson. The counter is that Dublin also want a deal and these new proposals to work so Barnier has his own pressures.

Should be an interesting day.

Surely the legal text needs to contain specific text on how this is going to operate i.e loaded with details; the EU won't accept a load of generic waffle laden with caveats finished off with 'lets get brexit done' - I just can't see how it is feasible to get this ironed out in a day unless I'm missing something here as there doesn't seem to be any proper working papers on this latest solution.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Surely the legal text needs to contain specific text on how this is going to operate i.e loaded with details; the EU won't accept a load of generic waffle laden with caveats finished off with 'lets get brexit done' - I just can't see how it is feasible to get this ironed out in a day unless I'm missing something here as there doesn't seem to be any proper working papers on this latest solution.

There's no chance that a deal will be struck by tomorrow, there's simply not enough time

 

[Coatigan]

It is becoming more apparent that the problem for many leavers seems to be,

that they seem to be confusing Brexit with Time Travel.

But then who the fuck knows what they were promised by the specific tailored targeted ads by leave.eu.

 

[blueinsa]

It is becoming more apparent that the problem for many leavers seems to be,

that they seem to be confusing Brexit with Time Travel.

But then who the fuck knows what they were promised by the specific tailored targeted ads by leave.eu.

Majority of your posts are reasonable and you can debate them and then you post the above.

But of course you are right, as a leave voter i am sat here right now confusing brexit with time travel.

 

[Coatigan]

Majority of your posts are reasonable and you can debate them and then you post the above.

But of course you are right, as a leave voter i am sat here right now confusing brexit with time travel.

I admit, i did a naughty. A throwaway generic sarcastic comment showing a touch of fed-up-ness, for lack of a better (or actalual) word.

It wasn't exactly specific to this forum, or a point made, was it. A lot gets claimed right now, across the board.

There is room for personal improvement, no doubt however. I'm aware of that.

 

[mcfc1632]

Just been contemplating these last couple of days on the extent to which posters eulogise about the position and attitude of Ireland in all this Brexit shambles - it all seemingly paints Ireland as the 'plucky victims' of a crime/disaster that is not of their making etc. etc.

Whilst, on the one hand, I have some understanding and acceptance of this - there is also a large amount of naivety and lack of understanding of the motivations evidenced in what people post. This is especially true in their readiness to see the UK locked in an unfettered backstop, which Ireland will unilaterally control the release mechanisms for and the design of which is only partly driven by the border issues.

Of course Varadkar, on behalf of Ireland, is desperate to secure a deal that has as much of the unfettered backstop in it as possible - and, failing that, can still ensure that the EU can impose regulatory controls on the sorts of key policies such as Corporation Tax levels. Before the 2008 crash and since, Ireland has enjoyed a boom - but Varadkar knows that this could become something of a bust, or at least a significant drop in momentum, if things do not fall right for them with regards to controls over a post-Brexit UK.

It is interesting that Ireland's GDP per head rate has been double that of the UK over the last decade or so and 3 times that of the Eurozone average. It stands only 2nd - behind Luxembourg - now what is the financial miracles that those 2 nations enjoy that is different to others?

Ireland's 'onshore' economic sectors such as agriculture are not driving this growth - it is their 'offshore' sectors - including large flows of revenue into and through Ireland that have boomed and fuelled the long period of high growth.

Of course a couple of years ago Brexit would have had Ireland licking its economic lips - with every expectation that it could be a major benefactor of transfers from the UK - but all that 'hope and aspiration' could sink to 'angst and despair' if the UK is 'free' to set its own policies on such matters as Corporation Tax.

This is because Ireland uses a series of structures to provide a 'flag of convenience' for international companies to dog-leg revenues and profits through Ireland that relate to economic activities primarily in other EU Member States, but also in non-EU countries as well. Whilst Ireland significantly benefits - this is mainly to the detriment of Germany, France and the UK.

When providing the bailout in 2008 - 'a grip' was taken on Ireland (by Germany and France) with regards levels of Corporation Tax, but the country is still able to present themselves as an attractive place for large companies to establish their EU headquarters for non-EU businesses, and to attract EU-wide revenues into Ireland while leaving the costs in other Member States.

Ireland are in a good place - along with Merkel, as evidenced by her recent pronouncements, they would not want to see a truly independent UK just off its shores. The robustness of the WA negotiations have the GFA and associated border issues somewhere near their heart - but there are other driving forces that should attract less eulogising.

Just some musings to counter the flow of sentiment on here that I would summarise as:

UK = big bad bully and generally bad

Ireland = innocent victim and all-round to be admired and pandered to

I have said on a number of occasions that anyone in the UK that supports a WA with an unfettered backstop - whether either through ignorance of its consequences or just pig-headed anti-Brexit sentiments - is actually supporting damage to the future health of the UK. This as always been another of those 'inconvenient truths' (aka facts)

 

[BobKowalski]

Surely the legal text needs to contain specific text on how this is going to operate i.e loaded with details; the EU won't accept a load of generic waffle laden with caveats finished off with 'lets get brexit done' - I just can't see how it is feasible to get this ironed out in a day unless I'm missing something here as there doesn't seem to be any proper working papers on this latest solution.

It does and any legal text on new and untried dual customs policy in NI will also have to come with a fallback position in case none of it works or can be made to work...like a NI only backstop.

The only way it gets agreed at the last minute is if we accept what’s already being agreed like the backstop or the backstop underpins the new customs proposal.

 

[mcfc1632]

It's interesting that Ireland had broken message somewhat last week.

The EU have to weigh the fact that Labour/Lib Dems will probably never win an election so even with extension there is nothing left but this deal.

If Boris did win an election with a majority then there is only the prospect of no deal and an even harder negotiation on the deal.

If there is a hung Parliament then we are back where we are now.

If I was the EU then I would be cashing in because for all other avenues all bets are off..

Good analysis - people should wonder - as I have done - why would the EU not simply bide its time and see if its sycophants can achieve the cancelling of Brexit - but, as you say, it would also be sensible to cash in now and seek to agree a deal that plays to the benefit of the EU.

It is a win all round for them - they can then hope for the sycophants can latch a confirmatory referendum to that deal as it passes through parliament and then it means that either Brexit is cancelled or the deal in their favour is 'banked'.

The best outcome from a Leaver perspective, IMO, is that there is not a deal presented to parliament - I would hold out for something that the EU will not give if I was BoJo.

I would then 'reluctantly' be forced into asking for an extension

I would then look to win the resulting GE - called without a referendum having been committed

Then if BoJo (that nickname is starting to grow on me - even though I have no liking for him) is not successful then all roads lead to Brexit being cancelled

If BoJo is successful - go back and reopen the negotiations with a mandate and No-Deal as leverage.

 

[mcfc1632]

Surely the legal text needs to contain specific text on how this is going to operate i.e loaded with details; the EU won't accept a load of generic waffle laden with caveats finished off with 'lets get brexit done' - I just can't see how it is feasible to get this ironed out in a day unless I'm missing something here as there doesn't seem to be any proper working papers on this latest solution.

Maybe the EU all have a sudden some motivations to agree a WA?

As per @inbetween recent post

 

[BlueHammer85]

Your posts get ever more delusional.
Whining about posters not engaging with you is fucking hysterical, when you have without fail ignored salient points made by many people and instead focussed on minutiae and simply poured scorn on anything anyone says whilst simultaneously stating in a Trumpian manner about your unmatched wisdom and analytical skills.
No one runs from debating with you. Everyone realises it’s just a pointless exercise.
It therefore gives you free rein to post as much bollocks as you want without any comeback with one or two sycophants agreeing with you. Bet you love it.
Not to mention your “rate my post” service where you breathlessly praise complete shite just because it’s from a Leaver and belittle posts from Remainers without countering any points made.

well said.
His writing style is so off putting to read that I drift off and give up after a couple of paragraphs - it’s really not that I’m anti his views, as I take great interest in Metal Bikers leave views and others. But with him, it’s hard to work out if he’s just a WUM or not, either way he at times has ruined this thread with his catching up on everyone’s posts and tedious responses.

 

[blueinsa]

well said.
His writing style is so off putting to read that I drift off and give up after a couple of paragraphs - it’s really not that I’m anti his views, as I take great interest in Metal Bikers leave views and others. But with him, it’s hard to work out if he’s just a WUM or not, either way he at times has ruined this thread with his catching up on everyone’s posts and tedious responses.

At least he is a fucking blue you appy iron cnut.

Feel free to go bore your own to fucking death with your brexit and England views and thats before i get on to your shit taste in music ;-)

 

[BlueHammer85]

At least he is a fucking blue you appy iron cnut.

Feel free to go bore your own to fucking death with your brexit and England views and thats before i get on to your shit taste in music ;-)

i'm a blue aswell when you play spurs and Liverpool you piece of shit.

 

[Mike D]

It appears Johnson has thrown in the towel on his do or die promise and accepted the delay

The Conservative Party has produced leaflets appearing to show that https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...s-deal-latest-tory-leaflet-leak-a9156711.htmlJohnson has accepted Brexit may be delayed until after 31 October.

The flyers, made available to activists last week, warn voters that supporting the Brexit Party would mean "more delay" because the party "can't deliver Brexit".

The wording suggests that the Tories expect Brexit may not have happened when the leaflets are distributed, despite Mr Johnson having repeatedly vowed to take the UK out of the EU by the end of October "do or die".


Maybe its about time he stopped them adverts too now on Brexit having spaffed £100 millions up the wall on a deadline he was never ever going to meet. If the opposition has any sense it will hang him out to dry and then make him call the vote or they call the no confidence on the 31st October just to rub his snout in it.

 

[adrianr]

well said.
His writing style is so off putting to read that I drift off and give up after a couple of paragraphs - it’s really not that I’m anti his views, as I take great interest in Metal Bikers leave views and others. But with him, it’s hard to work out if he’s just a WUM or not, either way he at times has ruined this thread with his catching up on everyone’s posts and tedious responses.

In well over 10k posts on here I've never used the ignore feature once. Finally made an exception. This thread has about half as many posts and sometimes the carry on doesn't make quite as much sense, but it's undeniably better. If I had to read "Bit behind so just catching up" one more fucking time I was going to lose it. Felt like you ended up reading the thread twice. Tedious enough reading the fucker once!