Another new Brexit thread

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Nearly there now.

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aguero93:20 said:
He can't get it through without Labour support or broad cross party support as things stand. He's still 50 short of a majority even with the DUP.
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Assuming the un-whipped Tories don't vote with the gov. Or that labour ALL vote against it.

It is literally unguessable.
 
Mike D said:
Yes if by some miracle Johnson got the deal through parliament before 31st October having an election would be political suicide for Labour, because Johnson's stocks would be pretty high in winning that election with a clear majority.
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I thought you meant if the deal was voted down again.
 
BobKowalski said:
An interesting morning :)

The backstop, which was an insurance policy, has gone to be replaced by permanent policy of EU alignment for NI and in effect a customs border in the Irish Sea. The DUP have lost their right to veto this arrangement, only a majority can vote down this arrangement and in effect install a land border. I can see why the DUP don’t like it but it seems fair enough. However business lobbies in NI don’t like the idea of revisiting the issue as it creates uncertainty for investors.

As there is no longer a need for the U.K. wide backstop level playing field provisions get moved to the Political Declaration which Johnson is now tacking back towards to make sure we get a more comprehensive FTA and also a recognition that for NI to work GB can’t diverge too much as this will further isolate the Unionists in NI.

Everything else remains the same as per May’s deal including guaranteed transition for 14 months and a further two year option which no doubt we will take and probably longer.

So EU and Dublin get what they want no land border in Ireland and customs down the Irish Sea and Johnson gets to claim his deal is great because we ditched the backstop. All brokered by Varadkar and Johnson in a face to face which is one thing May couldn’t do. That I think is the one difference Johnson made.

Haven’t too much issue with this deal but it needs Unionist consent as much as it needs Nationalist consent. If this gets railroaded through without Unionist consent (or to be accurate hard core Unionist consent) then it will mean trouble down the line.
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Yep, this is key IMO.
 
Ban-jani said:
Fuck me you’re horrendous at understanding posts.

The Cabinet of May’s, in which Johnson was present, rejected this Irish Sea border proposal in 2016.

I know what they’ve done.

No credit must go to him, he’s just gone back to what was previously offered.
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In one area he did what May couldn’t do and that is the face to face with Varadkar that paved the way for this deal. Ok he threw DUP under the bus and ceded on a customs border in the Irish Sea but that is pretty much his entire MO and to be honest someone had to get thrown under a bus for there to be movement.
 
dave_blue12 said:
He is the British Trump.

It's incredible that many of those who think Trump is a twat (he obviously is) cannot see that Johnson is also a twat which he also so very obviously is.

People believe what they want to believe and as we have seen over the past months no amount of evidence and logic will change the views of many.
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I’m not having you call hima twat. That’s right out of order.
















Clearly he’s a c**nt.
 
Just cannot see how the DUP could agree to this. If they look further down the line, they'll see themselves becoming outmaneuvered at Stormont and Northern Ireland taken closer to the EU/ROI and away from the UK. Perhaps that's a numerical and geographical sacrifice the Conservatives are willing to make today, but it will be a hard thing for the DUP to swallow let alone push. In terms of an election, it'll make the LibDem decision to back tuition fees look inspired.
 
I went to Tescos earlier and fought hard for a great deal on a loaf of bread. They were unreasonably asking £1 for it. I insisted on paying £2, and walked away until they accepted it
 
Irish journo bringing the snark :)

‘It really is remarkable that the NI backstop is no longer an insurance policy -- it is just policy. The safety net is to become the status quo’.@FintonO’Toole
 
Ban-jani said:
Fuck me you’re horrendous at understanding posts.

The Cabinet of May’s, in which Johnson was present, rejected this Irish Sea border proposal in 2016.

I know what they’ve done.

No credit must go to him, he’s just gone back to what was previously offered.
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Bang on. And he has taken some detail out on regulatory alignment and watered it down to reference to a FTA. The reality is that the watering down is meaningless as the FTA is yet to be agreed and everything that has been removed will just get stuck back in to the FTA down the line. He will claim he has won concessions around a FTA, he hasn't he has just taken some detail out that will re appear later. This is pretty blatant - its throwing the DUP under the bus so the EU will agree and then making meaningless changes in order to claim some grand victory.

I would expect a number of ERG to see their arse on this. In fact don't rule out another whopping defeat.
 
BobKowalski said:
An interesting morning :)

The backstop, which was an insurance policy, has gone to be replaced by permanent policy of EU alignment for NI and in effect a customs border in the Irish Sea. The DUP have lost their right to veto this arrangement, only a majority can vote down this arrangement and in effect install a land border. I can see why the DUP don’t like it but it seems fair enough. However business lobbies in NI don’t like the idea of revisiting the issue as it creates uncertainty for investors.

As there is no longer a need for the U.K. wide backstop level playing field provisions get moved to the Political Declaration which Johnson is now tacking back towards to make sure we get a more comprehensive FTA and also a recognition that for NI to work GB can’t diverge too much as this will further isolate the Unionists in NI.

Everything else remains the same as per May’s deal including guaranteed transition for 14 months and a further two year option which no doubt we will take and probably longer.

So EU and Dublin get what they want no land border in Ireland and customs down the Irish Sea and Johnson gets to claim his deal is great because we ditched the backstop. All brokered by Varadkar and Johnson in a face to face which is one thing May couldn’t do. That I think is the one difference Johnson made.

Haven’t too much issue with this deal but it needs Unionist consent as much as it needs Nationalist consent. If this gets railroaded through without Unionist consent (or to be accurate hard core Unionist consent) then it will mean trouble down the line.
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Is there not something in the deal that would allow Sinn Fein to collapse Stormont and bring down the whole agreement. Is this not one of the DUP sticking points?
 
blueinsa said:
Another nail in the Labour party coffin.

Another spectacular own goal as they fail to understand the mood of the country, not least their own leave areas in the North.
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Farage is saying the deal is also shit (although to be fair, every word that comes out of Farage's mouth is like a small turd bouncing down his chin so there's the possibility it is a good deal).
 
inbetween said:
All polls agree with this and show that Boris is not liked personally.

How is he though 15% polling points ahead of Corbyn?

Labour support over the last week has collapsed to almost equal the Lib Dems.
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It's incredible isn't it.

As a lifelong Labour supporter I can only speak for myself. I have switched to Lib Dem as they unequivocally oppose Brexit.

I see posts on here saying Labour MPs will commit electoral suicide if they don't vote for any agreement, whereas I think the bigger threat is from people like me.

Time will tell.
 
Gabriel said:
Just cannot see how the DUP could agree to this. If they look further down the line, they'll see themselves becoming outmaneuvered at Stormont and Northern Ireland taken closer to the EU/ROI and away from the UK. Perhaps that's a numerical and geographical sacrifice the Conservatives are willing to make today, but it will be a hard thing for the DUP to swallow let alone push. In terms of an election, it'll make the LibDem decision to back tuition fees look inspired.
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I can’t see it either and I can’t see them ever doing so after Johnson ignored them and said we are going ahead anyway.
 
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