Another new Brexit thread

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

What is, the Deal? bold call.

Without the DUPs support, I can't see it getting through. I could be wrong though

 

[inbetween]

EU has published it.

Fair enough I haven't read it.

I think you'd struggle to find anyone who actually has because everyone has already decided anyway.

 

[dave_blue12]

Boris has got "A great deal" Which other twat of leader says that?

He is the British Trump.

It's incredible that many of those who think Trump is a twat (he obviously is) cannot see that Johnson is also a twat which he also so very obviously is.

People believe what they want to believe and as we have seen over the past months no amount of evidence and logic will change the views of many.

 

[George Hannah]

Pretty clear that it’s going to result in a second referendum I think.

Not a scooby - No Deal or Revoke if this crashes.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Farage has just spoken on BBC and he hates the new deal, clean break blah blah - anyway makes the likelihood of a pact at the GE with Tories highly unlikely which changes the dynamics

This was the rub. He came in talking all tough guy and wanting a very hard brexit or no deal. This I think will look a lot like May's deal and that opens the door for Farage and co to shit on it. The same medicine he dished out to May. This will cement a couple of things BoJo has to wed himself to this plan and Farage has to pick a side. That has been done now and it would be very hard for either to pivot. At the next GE BoJo / Farage will be working against each other and that is a great result for all the remain parties and Labour.

 

[Ban-jani]

Labour won’t back it - Corbyn

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Based upon what?

Given the text hasn't been published - what is in the deal that removes workers rights?

Or is it on the basis of leaving the EU in which case there is no deal that is acceptable then, not even the one Labour would negotiate.

EFTA would be acceptable just ask @Mëtal Bikër [emoji14]

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Labour won’t back it - Corbyn

Quelle surprise

 

[aguero93:20]

Without the DUPs support, I can't see it getting through. I could be wrong though

He can't get it through without Labour support or broad cross party support as things stand. He's still 50 short of a majority even with the DUP.

 

[Mike D]

Erm. Have you thought that through?

Yes if by some miracle Johnson got the deal through parliament before 31st October having an election would be political suicide for Labour, because Johnson's stocks would be pretty high in winning that election with a clear majority.

 

[BobKowalski]

An interesting morning :)

The backstop, which was an insurance policy, has gone to be replaced by permanent policy of EU alignment for NI and in effect a customs border in the Irish Sea. The DUP have lost their right to veto this arrangement, only a majority can vote down this arrangement and in effect install a land border. I can see why the DUP don’t like it but it seems fair enough. However business lobbies in NI don’t like the idea of revisiting the issue as it creates uncertainty for investors.

As there is no longer a need for the U.K. wide backstop level playing field provisions get moved to the Political Declaration which Johnson is now tacking back towards to make sure we get a more comprehensive FTA and also a recognition that for NI to work GB can’t diverge too much as this will further isolate the Unionists in NI.

Everything else remains the same as per May’s deal including guaranteed transition for 14 months and a further two year option which no doubt we will take and probably longer.

So EU and Dublin get what they want no land border in Ireland and customs down the Irish Sea and Johnson gets to claim his deal is great because we ditched the backstop. All brokered by Varadkar and Johnson in a face to face which is one thing May couldn’t do. That I think is the one difference Johnson made.

Haven’t too much issue with this deal but it needs Unionist consent as much as it needs Nationalist consent. If this gets railroaded through without Unionist consent (or to be accurate hard core Unionist consent) then it will mean trouble down the line.

 

[mat]

He is the British Trump.

It's incredible that many of those who think Trump is a twat (he obviously is) cannot see that Johnson is also a twat which he also so very obviously is.

People believe what they want to believe and as we have seen over the past months no amount of evidence and logic will change the views of many.

Right down to his Stormy Daniel's and suspect tax dealings.

 

[inbetween]

He is the British Trump.

It's incredible that many of those who think Trump is a twat (he obviously is) cannot see that Johnson is also a twat which he also so very obviously is.

People believe what they want to believe and as we have seen over the past months no amount of evidence and logic will change the views of many.

All polls agree with this and show that Boris is not liked personally.

How is he though 15% polling points ahead of Corbyn?

Labour support over the last week has collapsed to almost equal the Lib Dems.

 

[Ban-jani]

Foreign secretary with a prime minister who didn’t listen and arranged a deal that forced him to quit...

They’ve removed the backstop and changed the deal to a free trade agreement. It’s completely different from the last deal.The last deal which most remainers said was impossible to change.

I get you don’t want us to leave, but surely some credit must go to Johnson as he’s got a deal. A reasonable and fair deal. Surely you want that. Rather then another pointless extension or no deal ?

Fuck me you’re horrendous at understanding posts.

The Cabinet of May’s, in which Johnson was present, rejected this Irish Sea border proposal in 2016.

I know what they’ve done.

No credit must go to him, he’s just gone back to what was previously offered.

 

[Coatigan]

Not a scooby - No Deal or Revoke if this crashes.

I Agree

 

[Saddleworth2]

Based upon what?

Given the text hasn't been published - what is in the deal that removes workers rights?

Or is it on the basis of leaving the EU in which case there is no deal that is acceptable then, not even the one Labour would negotiate.

Workers rights are mentioned in the political declaration which is a ‘wish list’ and can be jettisoned any time a Tory government feels like it. If they were serious it would have been included in the withdrawal agreement and been legally binding.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

He can't get it through without Labour support or broad cross party support as things stand. He's still 50 short of a majority even with the DUP.

In short, this deal is buggered.
@dave_blue12 theory makes more sense by the minute

 

[Saddleworth2]

Not a scooby - No Deal or Revoke if this crashes.

Corbyn has already said he would wave this through as an amendment which pitches it against revoke in a second ref.

 

[BobKowalski]

All polls agree with this and show that Boris is not liked personally.

How is he though 15% polling points ahead of Corbyn?

Labour support over the last week has collapsed to almost equal the Lib Dems.

Only in the YouGov poll and one other. Two others show it much closer. No idea who is using the right metrics though.

 

[FlemishDuck]

The drama is real. Here's a turd put in a costume speculativly intentionally destined to fail for a political ploy to which many just have the guess of what the goal is? The prospect however could just aswell depressingly point to another extension or to rephrease it for viewers from other parts of the world that are not affected in any way: it's gonna get tense, and likely there is going to be another season full of drama?