Another new Brexit thread

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BobKowalski said:
It’s just rough politics. The EU want this deal. So they will help Johnson get the deal over the line. The EU aren’t going to force no deal over a referendum to endorse the deal or anything like that. It’s not even the decision of the EU anyway. But if it scares a few MPs into voting for the deal then it’s done it’s job.
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Not even that tbf. It defends the deal, or, sells the deal more than anything.

Tbf, it was a stupid question with stupid timing. He just announced the deal, the journo asked if he'd grant an extension. Erm, we just agreed a deal, why is an extension needed.
 
Got SKY news on in the background and watching all the EU leaders/representatives gathering and greeting each other.

Such a sense of camaraderie and goodwill - like a close knit family gathering

Anyone feeling left out in the cold as we observe all that close friendship?
 
aguerrrroooooooooooo said:
In other words nobody knows yet. You'd be a bold man to predict anything with absolute certainty at this stage
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It's all tits up. About 3 hours I would have said that most ERG members would accept it, rather than face the possibility of an extension, referendum and no Brexit. And god forbid, a Corbyn government as well. Juncker's just given them the hope of no deal again, so they will now be weighing up whether they can safely vote it down and wait for us crash out. Or whether there would be a last minute extension and the very set of circumstances they do not want. Decisions, decisions.
 
Chippy_boy said:
It's all tits up. About 3 hours I would have said that most ERG members would accept it, rather than face the possibility of an extension, referendum and no Brexit. And god forbid, a Corbyn government as well. Juncker's just given them the hope of no deal again, so they will now be weighing up whether they can safely vote it down and wait for us crash out. Or whether there would be a last minute extension and the very set of circumstances they do not want. Decisions, decisions.
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The Benn act ensures we can't crash out with no deal if Johnsons agreement is rejected
 
BobKowalski said:
It’s just rough politics. The EU want this deal. So they will help Johnson get the deal over the line. The EU aren’t going to force no deal over a referendum to endorse the deal or anything like that. It’s not even the decision of the EU anyway. But if it scares a few MPs into voting for the deal then it’s done it’s job.
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Yeah it sounds like people got a bit overexcited about what Juncker's comments actually meant. People are already backtracking a little bit.
 
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dave_blue12 said:
It's incredible isn't it.

As a lifelong Labour supporter I can only speak for myself. I have switched to Lib Dem as they unequivocally oppose Brexit.

I see posts on here saying Labour MPs will commit electoral suicide if they don't vote for any agreement, whereas I think the bigger threat is from people like me.

Time will tell.
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I had to point out to a labour voter in our constituency thinking of voting LibDem because of their Remain policy that that would be helping the Tories win the seat.
 
blueinsa said:
I wonder how may are thinking fuck, we should have had a VoNC when we could as this deal has pissed on a few chips and put them in a position of them saying to the country i no i said i dont want no deal but really i lied and i dont want any deal.

Ooops!
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We could have a VonC on Saturday.
 
Contrast the amount of handshakes and hugs that Johnson is getting from EU27 leaders with May's 'lonely moment' of a couple of years ago
 
BobKowalski said:
An interesting morning :)

The backstop, which was an insurance policy, has gone to be replaced by permanent policy of EU alignment for NI and in effect a customs border in the Irish Sea. The DUP have lost their right to veto this arrangement, only a majority can vote down this arrangement and in effect install a land border. I can see why the DUP don’t like it but it seems fair enough. However business lobbies in NI don’t like the idea of revisiting the issue as it creates uncertainty for investors.

As there is no longer a need for the U.K. wide backstop level playing field provisions get moved to the Political Declaration which Johnson is now tacking back towards to make sure we get a more comprehensive FTA and also a recognition that for NI to work GB can’t diverge too much as this will further isolate the Unionists in NI.

Everything else remains the same as per May’s deal including guaranteed transition for 14 months and a further two year option which no doubt we will take and probably longer.

So EU and Dublin get what they want no land border in Ireland and customs down the Irish Sea and Johnson gets to claim his deal is great because we ditched the backstop. All brokered by Varadkar and Johnson in a face to face which is one thing May couldn’t do. That I think is the one difference Johnson made.

Haven’t too much issue with this deal but it needs Unionist consent as much as it needs Nationalist consent. If this gets railroaded through without Unionist consent (or to be accurate hard core Unionist consent) then it will mean trouble down the line.
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My guess is, trouble down the line.
 
Made me chuckle...

‘Is it too soon to point out that in the end everyone decided alternative arrangements don't work for the Irish land border?’ @SamuelMarcLowe
 
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