Another new Brexit thread

[aguero93:20]

A bit of light-relief

That'll go nicely with the Kaka tattoo.

 

[Len Rum]

The government and those pushing for Brexit in the Tory Party said in 2016 that we’d leave the CU and SM, whilst agreeing a FTA with the EU.
This deal does that.

Strictly speaking no.
The FTA is for the future and is included in the non binding political declaration.
We could crash out for instance with no deal at the end of the transition phase.
And (although unlikely) it is not inconceivable that in the transition phase another Government could agree to membership of the CU.

 

[Ban-jani]

It doesn't.
It provides a small window of opportunity for an FTA to be agreed before an extension to transition would be needed to avoid WTO. As FTAs typically take years and the withdrawal bill as it stands requires the government to request the transition extension without recourse to parliament there is a much higher probability that no FTA will be agreed in the few months available, and we would crash out at the end of 2020, to the delight of the ERG and their billionaire backers.

FTA take years when a country has a lesser relationship with the country or bloc they wish to agree the FTA with. We’ve obviously not come from that direction, as we have been tied to the EU for 40 years.

If Johnson doesn’t agree a FTA and doesn’t ask for an extension, he’ll go down as the worst Prime Minister of all time.

He doesn’t want that and the EU doesn’t want a WTO Brexit.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Moreover mate can I just take this opportunity to point out that a customs union for goods does not mean 'no end to freedom of movement'.
Turkey is in a customs union for goods with the EU but there is no freedom of movement between Turkey and the EU.
Think you should apologise to Jezz.

That cannot be true because "Turkey are just about to join the EU." (Nigel Farage, 2016)

Interestingly, Turkey have already offered a FTA to the UK (2017) which is dependent on Freedom of Movement......

 

[Chippy_boy]

We speak of mandates and lies but only one party was elected on a ticket to deliver Brexit and now has a policy to overturn Brexit and remain.

The same party has also been hoping to do all of this without having an election!!

See page 24 of their manifesto - https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/labour-manifesto-2017.pdf

You can put what on earth you like in a manifesto apparently, and not mean a word of it. Song long as you lose.

That's what I've been told on here, at any rate.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

I love how you berate and belittle other posters and demand evidence for every last word they post. But 2/3 of the post above is absolute dog shit, conjecture at best.

“99.9% of the stubborn Leave voters are ordinary people who don't really understand it and just want it over.”

“It's a massive if of course, but if there were a 2nd ref and we revoked, there'd be a week or two of rioting and it would settle down to grumbles and Facebook pictures. the Tommy Robinson types would be the only ones kicking up a stink and they are nasty, but there aren't many of them.”

Evidence please!

And remember, David, “beliefs don’t cut it”, I think was your line?

Eh? You appear to have the wrong Dave. The above is my opinion, in response to GDM's opinion, and is presented in exactly that way.

 

[Chippy_boy]

He volunteered. He knew what the cards were. He said he had other cards up his sleeve and as a renowned cheat he thought he could use them.

Are you really expecting sympathy for the liar?

No, but I was expecting you to not be so childish. I don't know why.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I'm going to get you to change back to being a Remainer. Lie or failed delivery?

I'm going to get mcfc1632 to admit he knows nothing. Lie or failed delivery?

The latter, of course.

 

[west didsblue]

FTA take years when a country has a lesser relationship with the country or bloc they wish to agree the FTA with. We’ve obviously not come from that direction, as we have been tied to the EU for 40 years.

If Johnson doesn’t agree a FTA and doesn’t ask for an extension, he’ll go down as the worst Prime Minister of all time.

He doesn’t want that and the EU doesn’t want a WTO Brexit.

Two problems with that are that the Leavers with the biggest influence on policy want the UK to diverge significantly from EU regulations and standards making a comprehensive agreement problematic. Secondly I don't think Johnson will worry too much about being branded as the worst PM of all time if he keeps his backers happy. He has form in blaming anyone else but himself and as long as he's got the right wing press on side he'll get away with it.

 

[dave_blue12]

An American view of our PM and Brexit. Apologies that Part 3 comes up twice.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

FTA take years when a country has a lesser relationship with the country or bloc they wish to agree the FTA with. We’ve obviously not come from that direction, as we have been tied to the EU for 40 years.

If Johnson doesn’t agree a FTA and doesn’t ask for an extension, he’ll go down as the worst Prime Minister of all time.

He doesn’t want that and the EU doesn’t want a WTO Brexit.

That overlooks the Elephant in the room on the FTA.

We want to be able to trade freely with the rest of the world - that typically means that you do trade deals with other nations involving some level of regulatory alignment. But we all assume we will get full SM FT access? We can't have both so we need to make a decision on what we want and which direction to face. There is no way the EU will grant us full & free SM access if we are then to become an import station for lower regulated foreign firms who will undercut EU firms. We will have to have an EU style rule book (like Norway) or a limited EU FTA (Like Turkey / Canada). If we adopt a Norway model we will not be doing anything significant with the US. If we want to go after a global trade approach we should expect a very limited deal with the EU and that can only be highly damaging to the Economy. Brexiteers keep talking up both in the same way they talked up a solution to the NI/ROI border. When it comes to it reality will hit and it will be one or the other.

 

[Coatigan]

The country is split right down the middle on this. Numbers attending marches will do nothing to shake my view on that. Disagree with your view on the long term impact on our society, which I think will be huge if we don't leave, even greater (in a negative sense) than if we remain, despite the economic benefits - and I think Brexit is utterly wank.

That is fair, and you are basing it on your surroundings and observations. I am basing mine on what i perceive, and in the absence of knowing leavers like you do, how society dealt with post indyref. It is all still bubbling away somewhat, but if it weren't for the brexit shitshow, wouldnt have any real mileage.
I'll stick to my belief in society, if that happens to be the direction this goes in. Which i don't think it will.

 

[Vic]

The government and those pushing for Brexit in the Tory Party said in 2016 that we’d leave the CU and SM, whilst agreeing a FTA with the EU.

This deal does that.

What FTA? Seriously, do you think negotiations for a FTA will be "frictionless" within the Tory party? "Get this deal done" then leave it to "a Downing Street spokesman" to "Get this next deal done"? ERG pushing for a hard deal, most Tory MPs still looking for the "customs arrangement" that May agreed to pursue....

 

[George Hannah]

I think you're wrong about this. Remain marches pull hundreds of thousands. Leave marches pull hundreds.
99.9% of the stubborn Leave voters are ordinary people who don't really understand it and just want it over. It's a massive if of course, but if there were a 2nd ref and we revoked, there'd be a week or two of rioting and it would settle down to grumbles and Facebook pictures. the Tommy Robinson types would be the only ones kicking up a stink and they are nasty, but there aren't many of them.

Hopefully one of these days you may have the opportunity to share those profundities face to face with a few ordinary people who don't really understand what they want. It could be a memorable clarifying moment for you.

 

[Ban-jani]

Two problems with that are that the Leavers with the biggest influence on policy want the UK to diverge significantly from EU regulations and standards making a comprehensive agreement problematic. Secondly I don't think Johnson will worry too much about being branded as the worst PM of all time if he keeps his backers happy. He has form in blaming anyone else but himself and as long as he's got the right wing press on side he'll get away with it.

He can be PM for the next decade if he gets this right, with a FTA.

 

[Vic]

FTA take years when a country has a lesser relationship with the country or bloc they wish to agree the FTA with. We’ve obviously not come from that direction, as we have been tied to the EU for 40 years.

If Johnson doesn’t agree a FTA and doesn’t ask for an extension, he’ll go down as the worst Prime Minister of all time.

He doesn’t want that and the EU doesn’t want a WTO Brexit.

Half his MPs probably do

Is that first paragraph a coded reference to German carmakers forcing a good deal (for the UK)?

 

[Ban-jani]

What FTA? Seriously, do you think negotiations for a FTA will be "frictionless" within the Tory party? "Get this deal done" then leave it to "a Downing Street spokesman" to "Get this next deal done"? ERG pushing for a hard deal, most Tory MPs still looking for the "customs arrangement" that May agreed to pursue....

I think there’s a GE coming and he’ll get a majority. The Party will then unite behind him and those that don’t will become outcasts.

This is just a prediction but this is what I genuinely think that will happen.

 

[Ban-jani]

Half his MPs probably do

Is that first paragraph a coded reference to German carmakers forcing a good deal (for the UK)?

No, it’s a simple description of the truth.

 

[Vic]

The latter, of course.

So the Northern train timetable is a lie?

 

[Ban-jani]

That overlooks the Elephant in the room on the FTA.

We want to be able to trade freely with the rest of the world - that typically means that you do trade deals with other nations involving some level of regulatory alignment. But we all assume we will get full SM FT access? We can't have both so we need to make a decision on what we want and which direction to face. There is no way the EU will grant us full & free SM access if we are then to become an import station for lower regulated foreign firms who will undercut EU firms. We will have to have an EU style rule book (like Norway) or a limited EU FTA (Like Turkey / Canada). If we adopt a Norway model we will not be doing anything significant with the US. If we want to go after a global trade approach we should expect a very limited deal with the EU and that can only be highly damaging to the Economy. Brexiteers keep talking up both in the same way they talked up a solution to the NI/ROI border. When it comes to it reality will hit and it will be one or the other.

You’re absolutely correct and this will be weighed up.

I think, just a guess, we’ll go for limited like Turkey/Canada with the EU. The economy is going to be damaged, that’s for sure.