Another new Brexit thread

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aguero93:20 said:
Yep. That's why a majority for any party is going to be a difficult ask and a big enough majority for Johnson to be able to alienate either wing of his party isn't going to happen.
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I don't see it like that actually.

Imagine the various voting factions and where will Labour get their votes from?

Hard left Remainers, Yes.
Moderate left Remainers, some, but not that many. Corbyn is really unpopular amongst moderates and IMO many of them will vote LibDem.
Centre ground Remainers, No, ditto.
Centre ground Leavers, No.
Centre right Leavers, No.
Hard right Leavers, No.

Corbyn's pool of potential support is dwindlingly small and his vote will be ripped in half by the LibDems IMO.

Yes, Johnson does have the Brexit Party to worry about, but so long as he sticks to his "I will deliver Brexit" message I am not sure Farage will take that many votes off him. Farage is increasingly being seen as a mad lunatic who is not content with anything other than us crashing out, which is something hardly anyone supports.

I think unless something dramatic changes, Johnson would end up with a 50 to 100 seat majority if there's a GE soonish.
 
Chippy_boy said:
I don't see it like that actually.

Imagine the various voting factions and where will Labour get their votes from?

Hard left Remainers, Yes.
Moderate left Remainers, some, but not that many. Corbyn is really unpopular amongst moderates and IMO many of them will vote LibDem.
Centre ground Remainers, No, ditto.
Centre ground Leavers, No.
Centre right Leavers, No.
Hard right Leavers, No.

Corbyn's pool of potential support is dwindlingly small and his vote will be ripped in half by the LibDems IMO.

Yes, Johnson does have the Brexit Party to worry about, but so long as he sticks to his "I will deliver Brexit" message I am not sure Farage will take that many votes off him. Farage is increasingly being seen as a mad lunatic who is not content with anything other than us crashing out, which is something hardly anyone supports.

I think unless something dramatic changes, Johnson would end up with a 50 to 100 seat majority if there's a GE soonish.
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This is my view too.
 
Ban-jani said:
He’s a very smart bloke. People who can’t look past his bumbling nature and persona are the morons.

He’s also a proper **** though but a smart one.
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It's all relative, but I don't really agree with that. He's smart in the sense that he knows to surround himself with smart people.
 
Vic said:
Can this really be the same Chippy who has spent three years putting right all the people who thought the EU would be desperate for a deal? The same chippy who posted
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Well regards your first quote, I still 100% think that. In fact I still 100% think the second one, come to think of it.

All that's changed is that I've moved on from "we need to stop this" to "it's gone on long enough, we have to get on with it".
 
Ban-jani said:
I genuinely think the vast majority of leavers will vote Tory now.
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When you add it a bit of electioneering promising more NHS spending, more police spending, more social services spending, end to austerity, increased minimum wage etc etc. I.e. the usual bribes parties put out (but which Theresa "fuckwit" May forgot all about), then yes I agree.
 
aguerrrroooooooooooo said:
I'm not sure, some very Northern callers on LBC saying they can't vote Tory/labour. Of course we won't really know until post election
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No we won’t and I may be mistakenly trying to put myself in their shoes, basing it on myself, if I was still me but a leave voter version.
 
George Hannah said:
One of the few benefits of Brexit on current terms would be that this sort of piffle comparing Scotland to Ulster will evaporate as the SNP slide into extinction.
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Don't know anything about Scottish Nationalism or it's popularity, but I agree with you George that the situation in NI and the possible situation in Scotland are not comparable in my view. Unless Scotland chose to leave the UK and The Westminster government decided that they would annex the Southern Uplands maybe splitting just North of Edinburgh and just south of Glasgow and calling it Southern Scotland and keeping that in the UK.
Then Scotland as an independent country would have a border with the UK (Southern Scotland) that they may dispute.
If everyone in Southern Scotland wanted to remain part of the UK this mightn't be so bad or difficult to negotiate about, however if the Republic of Scotland actually still claimed the southern uplands and there was a sizeable population in the southern uplands that still regarded themselves as Scottish rather than UKish, then you might have a bit of Trouble.
Maybe you would require another agreement, (let's call it The Hogmanay Accord), to settle this first. Maybe best to lodge this with the UN and have it internationally recognised.
Then maybe do a withdrawal deal with the UK, or wait, maybe rejoin the EU first and then do a trade deal. Wait. Is that possible after or before. Not sure.
I'm pretty sure the order of events would be pretty important, and you would want to be sure to not get it arse about face, or cart before the horse.

But then you could compare Scotland and Ireland....

I think.
 
Chippy_boy said:
You're still living in 2015/16, Bob.

This would have been all very interesting before the vote, but since all parties agreed we'd leave, both after the result in 2016 and then again in 2017, then how difficult this transition period may or may not be, is interesting but ultimately irrelevant. It's what must be done.
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Just replying to your ‘why take back control and hand it back over, it’s nonsense’ observation. Which it is. It’s Brexit. It’s why we are waiting around for the next 48 hours whilst the French President mulls our fate. Brexit at its core is the act of ceding control of the UK to the EU. Even to the point where the writ of UK economic policy will no longer apply in NI.

And no it doesn’t have to be done. Nothing has to be done. We are doing this because we no longer posses the will or the ability to do something different because of fear. Fear of not respecting the referendum. Fear of respecting the referendum. Fear of a Corbyn Govt. Fear that a GE will just produce another muddle. We are trapped by fear. And fear has led to the French, the Germans, the Irish et al deciding what our future will be.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Well regards your first quote, I still 100% think that. In fact I still 100% think the second one, come to think of it.

All that's changed is that I've moved on from "we need to stop this" to "it's gone on long enough, we have to get on with it".
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The only thing that's changed is your fear of a Tory collapse. Just like the actual Tories, you'd rather plunge the country into turmoil than give up power.
 
mancity2012_eamo said:
Don't know anything about Scottish Nationalism or it's popularity, but I agree with you George that the situation in NI and the possible situation in Scotland are not comparable in my view. Unless Scotland chose to leave the UK and The Westminster government decided that they would annex the Southern Uplands maybe splitting just North of Edinburgh and just south of Glasgow and calling it Southern Scotland and keeping that in the UK.
Then Scotland as an independent country would have a border with the UK (Southern Scotland) that they may dispute.
If everyone in Southern Scotland wanted to remain part of the UK this mightn't be so bad or difficult to negotiate about, however if the Republic of Scotland actually still claimed the southern uplands and there was a sizeable population in the southern uplands that still regarded themselves as Scottish rather than UKish, then you might have a bit of Trouble.
Maybe you would require another agreement, (let's call it The Hogmanay Accord), to settle this first. Maybe best to lodge this with the UN and have it internationally recognised.
Then maybe do a withdrawal deal with the UK, or wait, maybe rejoin the EU first and then do a trade deal. Wait. Is that possible after or before. Not sure.
I'm pretty sure the order of events would be pretty important, and you would want to be sure to not get it arse about face, or cart before the horse.

But then you could compare Scotland and Ireland....

I think.
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We should just invade Wales again, haven't done that in a good few centuries.
 
Ban-jani said:
He is intelligent, he’s just daft, to coin DD’s phrase.
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Yeah, like I said, it's all relative but I don't agree that he is intelligent. At what exactly do you think he is? Unless you are saying social intelligence, which I'd agree he is (although I think he uses it for the wrong reasons though!)
 
Ban-jani said:
Farage is dead, Johnson has murdered him and the LibDems and Labour will split the remain vote.
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Nah it’s just a flesh wound :)

Johnson can win back the bulk of Brexit Party support especially with his tough, do or die, leave on the 31st October approach. But defending a deal that the the Brexit Party is starting to dig into and saying ‘this isn’t Brexit anymore than May’s deal was Brexit’ will start to have an effect come a GE campaign. I don’t expect BP to win seats necessarily but I can see a 12 to 15% hardcore Brexit vote that will not be persuaded by a deal. Still means Johnson can get the Tory vote into the thirties but whether that’s enough for a majority I don’t know. Depends where that vote is and if it can translate into winning enough seats to compensate for losses in Scotland or even SW England.
 
BobKowalski said:
Just replying to your ‘why take back control and hand it back over, it’s nonsense’ observation. Which it is. It’s Brexit. It’s why we are waiting around for the next 48 hours whilst the French President mulls our fate. Brexit at its core is the act of ceding control of the UK to the EU. Even to the point where the writ of UK economic policy will no longer apply in NI.

And no it doesn’t have to be done. Nothing has to be done. We are doing this because we no longer posses the will or the ability to do something different because of fear. Fear of not respecting the referendum. Fear of respecting the referendum. Fear of a Corbyn Govt. Fear that a GE will just produce another muddle. We are trapped by fear. And fear has led to the French, the Germans, the Irish et al deciding what our future will be.
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I've no idea how you can honestly say Brexit is about us ceding control to the EU. That really is a difficult statement to justify. One way or another we will have some more control than we have now. We can debate how much exactly, but it will be some more.
 
jay_mcfc said:
The only thing that's changed is your fear of a Tory collapse. Just like the actual Tories, you'd rather plunge the country into turmoil than give up power.
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Apart from the above being nonsense, you're also assuming letting John McDonnell into no. 11 (he of the 2008 crash - "I've been waiting all my life for this") would not plunge the country into turmoil.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Apart from the above being nonsense, you're also assuming letting John McDonnell into no. 11 (he of the 2008 crash - "I've been waiting all my life for this") would not plunge the country into turmoil.
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You vote for a party that gives the likes of Gove, Grayling, Rees-Mogg and Johnson a chance at high office.
 
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