General Election - December 12th, 2019

[Metal Biker]

That is a very tough question.

I guess a hung Parliament is the best we can hope for but the chances are we're still fucked.

Gotta admit things don't look good.

I can think of nothing worse.

This election needs to return a majority Government. This stand off has to end.

 

[BobKowalski]

I'd imagine a Trade Deal will be complex and something will be good and some would be bad - we cannot get a trade deal with someone as large as the US and go through trade line by line item by item. Lobbyists will be pushing for the backers and sectors they are representing to maximise the benefits they can get so if the trade off is getting British automotive components into the US market is we accept that certain drugs are much more expensive then thats where the choice will have to be made.

If you think that any trade deal we would do with the US - particularly one led by Trump and with us led by a supine Johnson - would mean everything goes our way then you are dreaming. America First is his mantra and I'd expect any successor will continue in the same vein.

Yep. Additionally all US trade deals have America First as the base line irrespective of the President. All US trade deals have to be ratified by Congress and no one is voting for anything that sees their district or State lose out and all States have a say on issues that are State specific. We know exactly what the US will want because they very helpfully publish the mandate prior to opening negotiations.

To get anything significant for us we will have to give something bigger in return. If we don’t then any trade deal will be ‘politically symbolic’ and not really worth the effort. If we sign anything in the next 11 months with the EU then it will be full of level playing field demands in a host of sectors making any US deal pretty much redundant anyway. A US deal is more about the U.K. posturing as ‘Global Britain’ than anything else.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

just the 5th largest economy in the world.

What 4 are ahead of you?

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

What 4 are ahead of you?

it’s all there in google. It’s an amazing place.

 

[BobKowalski]

So what they want, they simply get, no benefit to us at all, we simply accept it, no trade offs, no give and take, no
mutually beneficial arrangements, we're just going into trade talks simply to agree to pay massively inflated prices
for medicines.
OK.

We were discussing US Pharma. I pointed out what they want. If in any trade deal we want anything major then we will have to give something major, like Pharma, in return. It will be imbalanced towards the US because the US is bigger than us and is very protectionist towards its markets. It’s just the way it works.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

it’s all there in google. It’s an amazing place.

Alright, I'll go a different direction.
USA
China
Japan aside, Also India I presume, how many of the following countries in any list would be European, yourselves included and how much does being in the EU trade bloc affect their standing or placement on that list?

Genuine question by the way. Not trying to trip anyone up, just thought that it may have a bearing on results.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

We were discussing US Pharma. I pointed out what they want. If in any trade deal we want anything major then we will have to give something major, like Pharma, in return. It will be imbalanced towards the US because the US is bigger than us and is very protectionist towards its markets. It’s just the way it works.

the EU is bigger than us and very protectionist towards its markets . That’s also just the way it works, we are fucked.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Alright, I'll go a different direction.
USA
China
Japan aside, Also India I presume, how many of the following countries in any list would be European, yourselves included and how much does being in the EU trade bloc affect their standing or placement on that list?

Genuine question by the way. Not trying to trip anyone up, just thought that it may have a bearing on results.

Germany's is significantly bigger, France marginally behind. I think that india depends on whether you go off predictions for this year (bigger) or past figures (smaller),

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Alright, I'll go a different direction.
USA
China
Japan aside, Also India I presume, how many of the following countries in any list would be European, yourselves included and how much does being in the EU trade bloc affect their standing or placement on that list?

Genuine question by the way. Not trying to trip anyone up, just thought that it may have a bearing on results.

there is only Germany bigger in the eu , though France not far behind. We won’t be fifth soon as India will overtake us , but we will still give aid to it.

I don’t know whether it will or won’t. If we leave the eu and don’t get a Canada style deal or free trade agreements with other then we will probably fall, if we do get a Canada style deal with the eu and other deals like with the US the. who knows could be better....

 

[dave_blue12]

I can think of nothing worse.

This election needs to return a majority Government. This stand off has to end.

Everything ends. Sometimes for better, sometimes for worse.

I'm not optimistic

 

[Ancient Citizen]

We were discussing US Pharma. I pointed out what they want. If in any trade deal we want anything major then we will have to give something major, like Pharma, in return. It will be imbalanced towards the US because the US is bigger than us and is very protectionist towards its markets. It’s just the way it works.

If a trade deal is predicated on the sole desires of one partner, at the expense of the other, then there is
simply no deal to be had. Unless you're inferring that Johnson will simply sign anything just to screw the UK and
gift Trump.

 

[Metal Biker]

Everything ends. Sometimes for better, sometimes for worse.

I'm not optimistic

One side will be delighted, one will be displeased.

It's always been the way of things.

 

[BobKowalski]

the EU is bigger than us and very protectionist towards its markets . That’s also just the way it works, we are fucked.

The EU is less protectionist than the US but yes it protects the markets of its member states with respect to non EU countries and EU member states are also protected by the ratification process.

Equally the US and EU have a huge internal market with little or no barriers to trade (the US actually has more internal barriers than the EU states) but we will of course be outside both internal markets.

 

[Vic]

I know that, although the scaremongers are suggesting we'd be forced under some new deal to buy far more of our drugs from the US than we do now, AND pay far more for them as well. It's utter nonsense, as anyone who gives it more that passing thought (and has an IQ above 50) can realise.

We'd have to switch ALL of our drugs spending to entirely US suppliers (which is not actually possible, since most of the drugs companies are actually in the EU!) and pay US prices, for it to cost us £500m a week. It was a lie - to use your favourite terminology.

So we're thick, are we? When American politicians are openly talking about their high prices for drugs and Europeans getting the same drugs cheap as "freeloaders"?

 

[Vic]

They have to appear to be, or else their vote is hopelessly divided between them and the Brexit Party, and then Labour would get in and the shit-storm which that would entail. Boris has no choice but to try to appeal to would-be BXP voters. Is he a hard Brexit man? No, he isn't. He pondered on whether to back Remain or Leave, remember? He is not Peter Bone, or John Redwood. He was never one of John Major's "bastards" like the others.

This is what he wrote in 2016, before deciding to back the Leave campaign:


"<The EU> is a market on our doorstep, ready for further exploitation by British firms,"

"The membership fee seems rather small for all that access.

"Why are we so determined to turn our back on it?"

And Remaining in the EU would be a "boon for the world and for Europe".

"I'm in favour of the single market. I want us to be able to trade freely with our European friends and partners."

Yeah. And Farage wanted us to "be like Norway". Things have moved on. Johnson sacked MPs who stopped No Deal.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

@Vic
Serious question Vic, with you out in this shitty weather door knocking, are you having any grief off Labour voters about Corbyn?

 

[BobKowalski]

If a trade deal is predicated on the sole desires of one partner, at the expense of the other, then there is
simply no deal to be had. Unless you're inferring that Johnson will simply sign anything just to screw the UK and
gift Trump.

No it’s about trade offs. If we want x then we have to give up x, y and z to get it. The US works on the basis that other countries need it more than they need them so if you want the US to party then you have to make it worth their while. It’s nothing to do with Trump or Johnson it’s about leverage and who has more. Add in the fact we have deliberately weakened our leverage then it’s unlikely we will get much from the US. Equally we may decide a deal is more of a symbolic issue and surrender very little of substance in return for the optics of saying ‘Look we have a deal’ even if it isn’t worth much to either party.

As an example take the WA which took nearly three years to negotiate. The EU wanted a divorce settlement, ECJ jurisduction on citizen rights and no land border in Ireland. They also wanted GI’s on products in the WA. They got all this and we got an 11 month transition period. Everyone got what they wanted it’s just that they got more. Welcome to the next decade.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Great to see that the spiv Farage has been booted off the QT leaders special because he cannot win the election.


Bye bye you Nazi con man.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

No it’s about trade offs. If we want x then we have to give up x, y and z to get it. The US works on the basis that other countries need it more than they need them so if you want the US to party then you have to make it worth their while. It’s nothing to do with Trump or Johnson it’s about leverage and who has more. Add in the fact we have deliberately weakened our leverage then it’s unlikely we will get much from the US. Equally we may decide a deal is more of a symbolic issue and surrender very little of substance in return for the optics of saying ‘Look we have a deal’ even if it isn’t worth much to either party.

As an example take the WA which took nearly three years to negotiate. The EU wanted a divorce settlement, ECJ jurisduction on citizen rights and no land border in Ireland. They also wanted GI’s on products in the WA. They got all this and we got an 11 month transition period. Everyone got what they wanted it’s just that they got more. Welcome to the next decade.

All I can say to that Bob is, lets see.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

So we're thick, are we? When American politicians are openly talking about their high prices for drugs and Europeans getting the same drugs cheap as "freeloaders"?

it’s ok we will have extra money for drugs as the nhs will only be working a 4 day week.