I do get that argument.
I think we now have to leave, the more I think about it the more I think we have to honour the result. I know it’s a bad move for us but this is doing so much social harm and distrust with the electorate.
Labour's untenable position on Brexit is entirely down to two factors IMO.
1. Corbyn's hatred of the EU and very strong personal belief that we should leave, and that this is entirely in conflict with the views of most of his party. This conflict is very much behind their indefensible fence-sitting.
2. A desperation for votes from whatever quarter they can get them and a fear of losing significant votes if coming out with a straight "Remain" position.
What is patently clear is that there can be no way on planet Earth that Labour can negotiate a "good" deal with the EU whilst saying to the EU that they won't even back it. BRINO is the only possible outcome. So Brexit is in all likelihood stone dead, dead as a dodo, were Labour to form the next government. Any referendum on BRINO vs Remain will yield a Remain majority, sure as eggs is eggs.
So what is stopping Labour from campaigning for Remain in the GE? Opportunism and Corbyn's stubbornness.
To be fair. If there is a second Ref and a political leader with a majority takes a side. Then how can they be expected to implement the option that they oppose - especially brexit which is a very lose concept. That was the dead end Cameron found himself in. Corbyns plan is workable in that he would come up with a brexit he would quite like (a soft one) and if it won or lost he could deliver either.
Not really a zinger of a policy but it is a clear way out of the mess. And in my view better than BoJo's BS around getting it done it 12 months.
I think that's a possible justification for their position, but not the reason for it. It's extremely clear that a big majority of Labour party members and the PLP passionately support a Remain position, and that being the case, that's what they should be campaigning for. That they are not, is simply fear of alienating possible Labour voters in the very many Labour Leave majority constituencies.
Such a conclusion might not have been so completely obvious were it not consistent with the 3 years of fence-sitting by Corbyn on pretty much every subject which requires him to take any sort of position which could cost him support.
If they get into number 10.I think they appreciate that brexit is not all its cracked up to be with the voters. The policy is a calculation, its what politicians do. As a remainer I will take it. As you say it will end brexit sure as eggs is eggs.
If they get into number 10.
If the polls stay as they are until December 11th, then probably Johnson will get a majority and this discussion is redundant. But if the polls narrow, we could well be looking at a hung parliament, with - in all probability - the Tories being the biggest party. And as the outgoing government, they get the first crack at forming the next one. That's how it works.
(Incidentally, that's how it works even if they are not the largest party, but whether a defeated government has ever actually managed to hang on to power in such circumstances, I am not sure. Anyway, I digress...)
So would Johnson rather see Corbyn in Number 10, his career finished and Brexit dead? Or would he do a deal with the LibDems? The latter is a no brainer. And would the LibDems do a deal with the Tories in return for a second referendum? Of course they would. Chukka Ummuna was slapped because he even suggested it, to the leaderships annoyance. But they would.
So unless Corbyn gets more seats than the Tories, or even gets a majority, then I think Johnson will still be PM on December 13th.
Agree on the numbers but you have to look at what happened to the Lib Dems last time. There is no way they are going to support Tories in power through a brexit process - a 2nd Ref would be a result but they would be in the same conflicted position where there is no way they could accept a brexit result and the tory Gov would fall.
My suspicion is that a hung parl would result in all other parties forming an alliance - insisting that JC stands down new lab leader stands in and takes power and labs policy of new brexit deal v remain goes to a 2nd ref. Remain wins - big economic boost and everyone sighs big sigh of relief. We then get the forst coalition government and possible the first in a long run of them as tories will be dead in the water if brexit fails - it wont come back and it wont ever be a popular policy again.
Can’t argue with your assessment, sad though that potential outcome is. I guess if Johnson needed LD support and a confirmatory referendum was the price, we could still see an end to Brexit.If they get into number 10.
If the polls stay as they are until December 11th, then probably Johnson will get a majority and this discussion is redundant. But if the polls narrow, we could well be looking at a hung parliament, with - in all probability - the Tories being the biggest party. And as the outgoing government, they get the first crack at forming the next one. That's how it works.
(Incidentally, that's how it works even if they are not the largest party, but whether a defeated government has ever actually managed to hang on to power in such circumstances, I am not sure. Anyway, I digress...)
So would Johnson rather see Corbyn in Number 10, his career finished and Brexit dead? Or would he do a deal with the LibDems? The latter is a no brainer. And would the LibDems do a deal with the Tories in return for a second referendum? Of course they would. Chukka Ummuna was slapped because he even suggested it, to the leaderships annoyance. But they would.
So unless Corbyn gets more seats than the Tories, or even gets a majority, then I think Johnson will still be PM on December 13th.
Maybe, who knows. But my personal view is it would turn out differently: Boris wins most seats, does a deal with the Libdems to support a queens speech on confidence and supply agreement (not full blown coalition which would never fly after the Clegg coalition disaster). I think this is a given, personally.
We then have ref2 and then there's two possible outcomes:
Boris' deal wins, and then we're into a situation where it's been endorsed the public twice. Very few MPs would stand in its way yet again and it would pass through the HoC and we are out, and begin endless internal arguments over the nature of the trade deal. Maybe the Tories call another general election at some point - 2017 and 2019 groundhog day all over again!
Remain wins, Boris steps down and we have another GE (which if Labour is led by anyone other than Corbyn or McDonnell, Labour thrash the Tories).
Oh, I'm not expecting any of them to bow to my will, I am simply stating that expecting all Labour votersI now think we have to leave, despite being a remain voter.
But it’s tough shit that Labour won’t bow to what you want. Their membership are 80%+ remain, their MPs are remain and the majority of their voters are remain.
They can stand for remain in an election if they wish and it’s tough shit for you.
I won’t be voting for them and I don’t agree with their Brexit policy but they’re absolutely welcome to have it and it’s a legitimate and mature position.
The Lib Dems will not support the tories at any cost. They are virtually a one issue party now and there entire future hangs on the basis they do everything they can to end brexit - if they fail they are in a difficult opposition, if they fail having put BoJo in No10 then they might as well turn the lights out.
Lib Dems will not make the mistake of the Cameron era. They would join a limited alliance of other remain parties (without JC). If that can't get itself together I would presume they would either not object to another remain group forming (Lab/SNP) but play no part other than do enough to keep the tories out of office long nough for a 2nd ref. Or failing that have the numbers and no other show to back just sit it out and wait for another GE. As long as brexit isn't happening it's popularity will fall another extension and another election early 2020 would be a preference to Lib Dems over backing a BoJo Gov.
Don't agree. If the Tories offered them sweeteners and REF2, then they would support a Tory Queen's speech, I have no doubt.The Lib Dems will not support the tories at any cost. They are virtually a one issue party now and there entire future hangs on the basis they do everything they can to end brexit - if they fail they are in a difficult opposition, if they fail having put BoJo in No10 then they might as well turn the lights out.
Lib Dems will not make the mistake of the Cameron era. They would join a limited alliance of other remain parties (without JC). If that can't get itself together I would presume they would either not object to another remain group forming (Lab/SNP) but play no part other than do enough to keep the tories out of office long nough for a 2nd ref. Or failing that have the numbers and no other show to back just sit it out and wait for another GE. As long as brexit isn't happening it's popularity will fall another extension and another election early 2020 would be a preference to Lib Dems over backing a BoJo Gov.
Don't agree. If the Tories offered them sweeteners and REF2, then they would support a Tory Queen's speech, I have no doubt.
What you describe is the kind of calculated political positioning that all parties make. It is the nature of politics.
It's extremely clear to me that an element of Conservative party members are passionately bigoted and would prefer an openly hostile position. Bojo has calculated that more nuanced racism and dog whistling remarks is better than anything definitive. Same thing....
Interestingly enough the Labour posters on here fail to realise this and then spend their lives attacking Swinson for a clear and definitive Brexit approach.
As I say, I don't agree. The LibDems would not be going into government, I made that very clear. They would simply vote in line with the Tories, or possibly even just abstain, which might be enough.How would BoJo get his rapid brexity party to agree to a 2nd ref - zero chance.
Why would Lib Dems go into Gov with BoJo, even for a ref - zero chance.
Even assuming these two agreed to do a deal around a 2nd ref - whatever outcome and it falls apart, Remain outcome = tory implosion (and Mark Francois head would literally explode), leave outcome = Lib Dem implosion. In each case the Gov falls apart before it can implement anything.
Never going to happen.
For the Tories to win they have to keep hold of seats and a lot of them had big remain majorities. What a completely unnecessary shit storm this has unleashed. The only positive is the potential death of the two party system.Oh, I'm not expecting any of them to bow to my will, I am simply stating that expecting all Labour voters
to carry on voting Labour regardless of them being told they're thick racists, is blind optimism at least.
Because, for the Tories to win, they need some Labour seats, and the majority of those seats have a leave majority.
Roughly 80 Tory seats had remain majorities (and the Tories have more seats remember) as opposed to 148 labour seats with leave majorities throw in the Corbyn McDonald factors I'd know which party should be having the sleepless nights.For the Tories to win they have to keep hold of seats and a lot of them had big remain majorities. What a completely unnecessary shit storm this has unleashed. The only positive is the potential death of the two party system.
Labour are trying to ride the falling popularity of brexit. I have no doubt that they will be an all out remain party at some point in the near future it is all a question of when they think it best to make that leap.
As I say, I don't agree. The LibDems would not be going into government, I made that very clear. They would simply vote in line with the Tories, or possibly even just abstain, which might be enough.
And as to why would Francois and co accept it? Isn't that obvious? Unless they did, then we have Jeremy Corbyn in No 10 (which I can assure you, to any red blooded Tory is a nightmare on an unprecedented scale) AND Brexit is dead.
Gain support from the Libdems and Johnson gets to stay in number 10 and there is the possibility of Leave winning the 2nd referendum. A slim possibility perhaps, but there is no possibility if Corbyn is in number 10 and offering BRINO or Remain as the choices.
In short, were the worst case to happen and Boris not get a majority, the ERG are in a really bad place. Shit or bust, so they would take the least worst option and that is a deal with the Libdems.