Another new Brexit thread

[Vic]

He’ll go for a soft Brexit and lie that it’s a hard one to keep everyone happy.
It will work.

I'm sorry. What? I thought Brexit would be done by the end of next month.

The choice will be a softish Brexit that annoys the ERG or a hard Brexit that wrecks (even more) the economy.

All the Tory MPs signed up to the second hand deal, but how many of the new Tory MPs were Remainers and think the harder the Brexit the worse it will be (especially in the Red Wall newbie areas)?

Anyway, I do expect an extension of the transition period, to be announced a week after the local elections in May.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

It's a EU principal that they are trying to get all countries to adopt. Tax harmonisation. They want to ensure we don't lower corporation tax.

Yes I understand the Eu TAX Strategy .... and also the legislation surrounding the Eu Anti tax avoidance directive which is what Brexit is all about ..... played for mugs the lot of you

 

[west didsblue]

Or remainers will keep repeating that idea as it’s all they have left.

Odd comment.
You’re getting your Brexit.
The only thing left to discuss is the type of Brexit we get. One that fucks up the country a bit or one that fucks up the country a lot. I support the former.

 

[George Hannah]

EU crumbling: Germany sliding into 'dangerous' anti-Europe hysteria warns top economist

 

[Chris in London]

Odd comment.
You’re getting your Brexit.
The only thing left to discuss is the type of Brexit we get. One that fucks up the country a lot or one that fucks up the country even more. I support the former.

fixed

 

[The blue phantom]

Not normally one to gloat, but I am absolutely happy to make an exception in this case.









So who is the empty-headed "know-nothing" now eh? I think that was the term you used.

Enjoy the result.

Aye you're forgetting the shit loads of post you did prior to these post where you were ripping Johnson a new arsehole everyday, and the party too, you feared him sorting Brexit out. You called him just about every name under the sun.

We all know when it started getting rosy you slid back into full tory mode.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Yes I understand the Eu TAX Strategy .... and also the legislation surrounding the Eu Anti tax avoidance directive which is what Brexit is all about ..... played for mugs the lot of you

Keep your insults to yourself.

 

[BlueHammer85]

I’ve always been a passionate remainer but after that Tory victory I give up all hope and fight - whatever happens is to be now , I cant be bothered to be angry about the decision anymore

 

[mcfc1632]

Can we finally dispel the myth and it is a myth that the country wants to remain now?

As I catch up - I am sure I will see the main Remainer posters all coming on here to admit that they were just totally wrong and who knows? - perhaps having the character to apologise for all the casual insults they have thrown about for 3 years

Surely event the arch Remainers on here could not try to find a way to squirm and spin this result?

 

[mcfc1632]

Not normally one to gloat, but I am absolutely happy to make an exception in this case.









So who is the empty-headed "know-nothing" now eh? I think that was the term you used.

Enjoy the result.

I hope to find that key Remainers are sufficient of character to admit the simple truth that they were wrong and Leavers were correct.

A result as comprehensive as this one IMO should be acknowledged without the need to hide/distract/dissemble/obfuscate.

 

[mcfc1632]

If we divide the number of Conservative votes by the sum of the non-Conservative votes, plus those who were eligible but didn't vote, plus those 16 year olds who were disenfranchised, plus all the EU nationals who were not allowed to vote because of racism, plus the postal votes that didn't arrive from Mogadishu because the plane was hijacked.." etc I think you’ll find that it was a resounding win for Remain.

Not sure if even all that would swing it;-)

 

[mcfc1632]

More people voted for pro EU/Second Referendum parties than for Brexit parties.

Tory vote went up only marginally but the Labour vote fell away.

Corbyn is largely responsible for delivering victory to the most right wing Tory party in living memory.

For the sake of the country Labour needs to short its shit out but I can't say I'm hopeful in seeing that anytime soon.

Meanwhile we await the delights of another 5 years of Tory rule. More foodbanks anyone ?

I would like to be able to say that is really magnanimous of you......

 

[mcfc1632]

I dissagree , it enables the British government to call the EUs bluff, something they haven't been able to do so far. They have been lent on by the remainers and the ERG. Now they can hopefully get a decent deal, we need regulatory alignment just not controls over out tax etc

You are on the money - ignore those that cannot accept the truth of things

A lot of posters sought to deny what was a obvious truth since 2016, that:

We will not only see movement from the EU unless and until they have to face the prospect of a walk-away (No-Deal) and the political will to use it.

It was proven to be true when Johnson was hamstrung in government - it is true in spades in this new dynamic.

If I was Johnson I would consider reopening the WA and removing further aspects that I am uncomfortable with. But I understand that he will not do that - there is just too much capital banked on achieving the WA by the end of January.

The FTA is a whole different kettle of fish though.

@BobKowalski comments as if it is prescribed that you can only select from the EU menu and you cannot ask for any 'specials' - that is just him in denial and a lot on the Remain side have clearly shown for 3 years that they have little understanding of managing significant negotiations.

All the conditions are now in play for the UK - if Johnson is ambitious enough - to secure a bespoke deal that we are active in designing and the EU accepting - not the other way around

As you say - "….. with a big majority and the eurozone gradually sliding towards a recession..." are 2 factors that are in our favour and there are several others

Varhadkar said the right things - but his face showed the trepidation he must be feeling inside - gone was the smug look

Barnier is saying the obvious things - but being a top professional he will be involved in a host of preparatory meetings to establish the EU's negotiation outcomes and strategy - in the knowledge that he can no longer rely on Westminster to undermine the UK

It will all depend on who Johnson selects as the lead negotiators - surely he will not appoint some fuckwit like Robbins

 

[Chippy_boy]

Aye you're forgetting the shit loads of post you did prior to these post where you were ripping Johnson a new arsehole everyday, and the party too, you feared him sorting Brexit out. You called him just about every name under the sun.

We all know when it started getting rosy you slid back into full tory mode.

All fair points.

My gloating was not so much about the Tory win, but more about me being proven correct in my argument with a particular poster who repeatedly suggests in am thick.

 

[Chippy_boy]

You are on the money - ignore those that cannot accept the truth of things

A lot of posters sought to deny what was a obvious truth since 2016, that:

We will not only see movement from the EU unless and until they have to face the prospect of a walk-away (No-Deal) and the political will to use it.

It was proven to be true when Johnson was hamstrung in government - it is true in spades in this new dynamic.

If I was Johnson I would consider reopening the WA and removing further aspects that I am uncomfortable with. But I understand that he will not do that - there is just too much capital banked on achieving the WA by the end of January.

The FTA is a whole different kettle of fish though.

@BobKowalski comments as if it is prescribed that you can only select from the EU menu and you cannot ask for any 'specials' - that is just him in denial and a lot on the Remain side have clearly little understanding of managing significant negotiations

All the conditions are now in play for the UK - if Johnson is ambitious enough - to secure a bespoke deal that we are active in designing and the EU accepting - not the other way around

As you say - ….. with a big majority and the eurozone gradually sliding towards a recession... are 2 factors that are in our favour and there are several others

Varhadkar said the right things - but his face showed the trepidation he must be feeling inside - gone was the smug look

Barnier is saying the obvious things - but being a top professional he will be involved in a host of preparatory meetings to establih the EU's negotiation outcomes and strategy - in the knowledge that he can no longer reply on Westminster to undermine the UK

It will all depend on who Johnson selects as the lead negotiators - surely he will not appoint some fuckwit like Robbins

I agree with your general point about our negotiating position and how it has been improved.

But it will be fascinating to see in what direction Boris takes this. The fact is he does not need the ERG now, and I am pretty certain that Boris himself is not a paricularly hard line Brexit supporter. So he has the option if he chooses to pursue a softer Brexit now, in order to get his FTA done. There are still red lines of course - he could not surrender control of FOM or there would be riots. But does he steer the UK closer to the US or stay closely aligned to the EU? Interesting times!

I will end though by saying - as I have said before - the EU is shit scared about Singapore_on_Thames, 26 miles off the coast of France. And Boris has HUGE negotiating power in threatening it. It is striking that in the early hours of Friday morning, Barnet was talking about now presing ahread with a Brexit deal which "ensures a level playing field". Very revealing: They are worried we will not agree to this.

 

[mcfc1632]

Don't be silly, a big majority with no erg or remain Mps tieing his hands means he can be alot tougher in negotiations. Parliment was acting to the benefit of the EU. That won't happen now. Goodness I can't beleive how some are unable to grasp these simple things.

As I say - it has been obvious for over 3 years - some posters post a lot but they do not understand the basics of negotiations

Over the years I have been just assuming that it is their need to big up the EU and belittle the UK - sad as that may be

That they continue the tosh just demonstrates that they are not able to reflect or be objective

 

[mcfc1632]

Or remainers will keep repeating that idea as it’s all they have left.

You got it - denial is strong in some ;-)

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Or remainers will keep repeating that idea as it’s all they have left.

It's amazing how being consistently wrong never seems to affect their view, an almost childlike trait.

 

[blueparrot]

Or remainers will keep repeating that idea as it’s all they have left.

Why would he go for anything other than the softest Brexit he can get away with. He wants, and to be fair, has always wanted a FTA with the EU while being able to trade with other blocks that and some form of restiction on FOM are about all he wanted. He will know full well he will need to make compromises the ERG won't like, as he's never really liked the ERG , he won't mind stabbing them in the back, because now he can.
If you go back to before the referendum you'll remember he wrote 2 peices one for staying one for leaving and took a while to decide, he's nowhere near as hardline as Rees Mogg ETC.
That's me speaking as someone that doesn't trust or like Johnson and would never vote for him, but if he was going to win a big majority is better than pandering to the ERG.

 

[mcfc1632]

I agree with your general point about our negotiating position and how it has been improved.

But it will be fascinating to see in what direction Boris takes this. The fact is he does not need the ERG now, and I am pretty certain that Boris himself is not a paricularly hard line Brexit supporter. So he has the option if he chooses to pursue a softer Brexit now, in order to get his FTA done. There are still red lines of course - he could not surrender control of FOM or there would be riots. But does he steer the UK closer to the US or stay closely aligned to the EU? Interesting times!

I will end though by saying - as I have said before - the EU is shit scared about Singapore_on_Thames, 26 miles off the coast of France. And Boris has HUGE negotiating power in threatening it. It is striking that in the early hours of Friday morning, Barnet was talking about now presing ahread with a Brexit deal which "ensures a level playing field". Very revealing: They are worried we will not agree to this.

Your final para is spot on and the EU negotiating team will be very sober of mindset now - gone will be all the celebration of the May deal and they will be into hard planning

Johnson needs his team to do a couple of months of the same

The EU will be concerned - very concerned - and the position is ripe for exploitation