Another new Brexit thread

[mcfc1632]

I didn't need to know. I was just correcting your misquote. I'll do it again. Hoist with.

But I still have no idea why it's an appropriate reference to anything that was being said.

And you'll now write 500 words saying why I don't understand (negotiating, Shakespeare, the price of fish) rather than 50 explaining.

Or......

You could quit with the childish pedantry and stop embarrassing yourself by recognising that a quote was mildly adapted to provide context and appropriate tense

You could prevent further embarrassment by reading the trail of posts because if you relate the quote to that trail the relevance would be obvious - I am not inclined to spoon-feed you.

Or perhaps you do not actually understand the meaning of the quote but only know the specific wording - in that case my advice would be that embarrassment could be avoided by not always looking to score cheap points

 

[Saddleworth2]

I see that this thread has yet again reached a peak of political analysis and discussion.

 

[Metal Biker]

I see that this thread has yet again reached a peak of political analysis and discussion.

Thank you for that succinct and much needed observation.

Can you stop moaning now? This is what, the 4th time you've said this?

 

[mcfc1632]

I see that this thread has yet again reached a peak of political analysis and discussion.

TBF - I did not see much heed paid by the usual crowd to your request:

FFS. I know I will get shot by both sides but can everyone stop with the condescension and insults. Everyone has valid points to make and the topic of how the UK negotiates this year with the EU and others is as delicate and as important as it gets. It would be nice to be able to discuss it on here without a degeneration into name calling and shite. If @mcfc1632 stops with the attitude and general condescension, can everyone else stop with the insults. Please.

I would prefer that there were not such repeated attempts to demean and insult - but I am not prepared to just let them go unchallenged

 

[bluethrunthru]

Total red herring this mate, although you are correct that the loss of the EU subsidy could be a disaster for some farmers. Farming is shafted by supermarkets in our own country. Assuming brexit to some extent chokes the import of EU milk there may be benefit to the UK industry. We pay more for a leg of lamb than farmers get paid for a whole one - that's Tesco and co, not the EU to blame. Farmers only need propped up by subsidy because they get screwed over. We should be able to pay no more or less than we do now and the farmers get a fair deal, but this would mean a reduction supermarket profit margins. For me that’s the fight our govt need to have on behalf of farmers.

We are to blame for demanding ever cheaper food. Tesco et al shaft the farmer for their own profit - do you know why Lidl and Aldi came here? Because the margins UK supermarkets work on are much higher than they do in their home market. Its called capitalism and it fucks over all but a fortunate few. The UK was always known as " Treasure Island" to companies from abroad because we couldn't just nip over a border to get a better price. Except on the Eire/Ulster border of course. The Govt won't be fighting anyone on behalf of farmers because they are non-interventionist ( when it suits them ) and the people that run Tesco and Sainsburys are their big donors.

 

[mcfc1632]

@Saddleworth2 - I think that this is worth discussing

I think that this article suggests the focus of 2020 from Johnson's and Cumming's POV and highlights why it is not in their/the UK's interests to allow the EU to push agreement on a future TA into the long grass of long/repeated extensions.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/12/31/no-deal-is-still-on-the-table-simon-hix-on-brexit-in-2020/

If looked at from the UK perspective it is so obvious why extensions beyond 2020 must be resisted unless it is to undertake the fine-tuning of a framework that has agreed all key principles.

Also, the WA and in particular the PD, are still loaded with constraints on the UK that secure the control of the EU over the UK and it might take the risk of a No-Deal to have these unpicked as this would be more 'efficiently' and politically acceptably done in that environment rather than have reopened the WA/PD.

I particularly agree with the view that:

".....if we’re heading for a no-deal Brexit, it would be better to get that out of the way soon (in December 2020 rather than December 2022), so that there is plenty of time to tackle the hit on the likely British economy and public finances before the next election, which is likely to be some time in 2024."

For me the good call is to develop what would be a pragmatic TA and one that 'should be' acceptable to both sides - but does remove the unacceptable constraints in the PD - essentially do in reverse to the EU what they had intended, in 2018, to do to the UK with regards to the PD.

Then have this pragmatic TA placed before the EU by the end of 2020 within a climate where Brexit is not the lead story every day and the media and public are not obsessed with each clause and considering who has 'won' as there cannot be a jointly agreed outcome in that environment of win/lose.

At the same time, the government should have genuinely prepared for the management of a No-Deal outcome - such, should that become necessary, then any headline news items of 2024 are about the strength of the UK recovery following the past (2020/2021) poor behaviour of the EU - rather than ongoing and emerging bad news stories.

For me - if we see 2020 unfold along these lines it will be further proof that we have at last got professionals directing Brexit policies, backed up by commitment to making No-Deal a viable proposition and demonstration of the political will to use it

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

We are to blame for demanding ever cheaper food. Tesco et al shaft the farmer for their own profit - do you know why Lidl and Aldi came here? Because the margins UK supermarkets work on are much higher than they do in their home market. Its called capitalism and it fucks over all but a fortunate few. The UK was always known as " Treasure Island" to companies from abroad because we couldn't just nip over a border to get a better price. Except on the Eire/Ulster border of course. The Govt won't be fighting anyone on behalf of farmers because they are non-interventionist ( when it suits them ) and the people that run Tesco and Sainsburys are their big donors.

Absolutely, but nothing to do with the EU, brexit or subsidies

 

[bluethrunthru]

Absolutely, but nothing to do with the EU, brexit or subsidies

Of course it bloody well has !!! If it hasn't then why hasn't the Govt been offering that money to support farmers previously? Its because of EU rules, subsidies and its Brexit that means they can and are willing to do it but at a figure lower than was provided in subsidy whilst we are members of the EU. Unleashing farms potential? What are they supposed to do - make sheep grow bigger more quickly?

 

[Saddleworth2]

Thank you for that succinct and much needed observation.

Can you stop moaning now? This is what, the 4th time you've said this?

Not a moan. Merely a much needed observation based on the quality of debate on this thread.

 

[Metal Biker]

Not a moan. Merely a much needed observation based on the quality of debate on this thread.

You've certainly repeated it, enough times.

 

[Saddleworth2]

In the private sector, a full business case would be done prior to meaningful negotiations. It would normally be done on the basis of an ITT response from one or a number of service providers. My point was, in most cases there is a fall back of status quo if the business case is destroyed for whatever reason. That doesn’t apply with Brexit. There is no status quo safety net to turn to.

Turning to one of your key points. That Johnson has the means and political will to go for no deal if his realistic and ideal scenarios are rejected or simply if he runs out of time. Yes. I agree he has. And I agree that it is a bargaining lever as the EU will not wish it. How strong a leaver is open to discussion. Do I think that the EU would break one of their fundamental red lines, no I really don’t and that for me is critical as the most advantageous outcomes with the EU will come wrapped with consequences that are unacceptable and we will be back to the same impasse. That’s why I think a no deal conclusion is a very real and likely possibility at the end of 2020. Some would argue that is his ideal scenario anyway.

I talked about the competence of the U.K. negotiation team and I recognise the framework you describe which would work if implemented by really competent people. Not just a core team + support, but every single one of their sponsors which would cover the entire cabinet and would require full support from media (that would be the easy bit). Not a word out of place, not a single wrong term, every step choreographed to achieve the best outcome. Rebuilding the relationship with the EU would have to be part of that so no more macho dick waving from Gove or Robb. I just cant imagine it. To go from the utterly inept to the frankly world class is a step too far for me to think credible. Surely a more likely outcome is more of the same inept shouting by Johnson and co whilst working hard to mitigate the worst impacts of a no deal scenario at the end of 2020.

@mcfc1632 before I respond to your last post. Would you mind responding to this. Otherwise it will feel like an extremely one sided conversation.

 

[Saddleworth2]

You've certainly repeated it, enough times.

Twice I think mate but apologies if it offends.

 

[mcfc1632]

@mcfc1632 before I respond to your last post. Would you mind responding to this. Otherwise it will feel like an extremely one sided conversation.

Will do - thought I had actually - driving back to the South from the Lake District yesterday - so obviously just in my mind

Got some domestics to deal with and then will reply

 

[Metal Biker]

Twice I think mate but apologies if it offends.

No it just bores.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Of course it bloody well has !!! If it hasn't then why hasn't the Govt been offering that money to support farmers previously? Its because of EU rules, subsidies and its Brexit that means they can and are willing to do it but at a figure lower than was provided in subsidy whilst we are members of the EU. Unleashing farms potential? What are they supposed to do - make sheep grow bigger more quickly?

My point is that the whole subsidy mechanism is an artificial construct, which in effect actually subsidises supermarket profit margins rather than farmers - in much the same way as tax credits make the tax payer subsidise wages in order to boost company profits. To 'unleash the potential' of UK farming we probably to need to offset EU subsidy in the immediate short term, but the economics of farm-gate prices needed adjust. Happily as you point out in so many of your posts the economic impetus for this will be provided by the many obstacles to import/export of agricultural produce post-brexit.

 

[Saddleworth2]

No it just bores.

:-)

 

[journolud]

Thank you for that succinct and much needed observation.

Can you stop moaning now? This is what, the 4th time you've said this?

What is the limit on repeating yourself on this thread?

 

[KS55]

Of course it bloody well has !!! If it hasn't then why hasn't the Govt been offering that money to support farmers previously? Its because of EU rules, subsidies and its Brexit that means they can and are willing to do it but at a figure lower than was provided in subsidy whilst we are members of the EU. Unleashing farms potential? What are they supposed to do - make sheep grow bigger more quickly?

Many a true word spoken in jest. There is a lot of interest in farming circles in intensive rearing with exactly that purpose. The quicker they grow, the less damaging environmentally they are, Beef rather than sheep, I think.

 

[BlueAnorak]

At the same time, the government should have genuinely prepared for the management of a No-Deal outcome - such, should that become necessary, then any headline news items of 2024 are about the strength of the UK recovery following the past (2020/2021) poor behaviour of the EU - rather than ongoing and emerging bad news stories.

For me - if we see 2020 unfold along these lines it will be further proof that we have at last got professionals directing Brexit policies, backed up by commitment to making No-Deal a viable proposition and demonstration of the political will to use it

The Tory party have planed No-Deal Brexit to the max, but only since Spreadsheet Phil bit the dust. It was too late to implement the plans without a WAB but come June, they start to roll out - regardless of the progression of trade negotiations with the EU.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Many a true word spoken in jest. There is a lot of interest in farming circles in intensive rearing with exactly that purpose. The quicker they grow, the less damaging environmentally they are, Beef rather than sheep, I think.

The public have already voiced anger at cows kept indoors for life just milk machines who never see the grass and the sky - with beef is it down the drugs route? If so they grow ore quickly but unable to be exported to many markets.