Another new Brexit thread

[mcfc1632]

Despite the fact we are polls apart on Brexit as a fun thing to do, we agree on the process of what should happen from now. I think where we differ is in Johnson’s capability to lead negotiations in the way that you describe. We won’t have long to wait to find out. If he succeeds I’ll be the first to put my hand up and say I was wrong.

I have serious reservations about Johnson's capabilities on most things - that is not meant as an 'anti-Johnson' jibe - simply - why would/should he have capabilities that his life to date have given him no schooling in.

For me the best talent that Johnson can display is to be good at selecting people to lead for him and then robustly heeding and backing them - and freeing them from the many distractions that various stakeholder groups will seek to bring.

For me - the most important thing to realise about this 'negotiation' is that the negotiations aspects are only part of a much wider Transformational Change Portfolio, which will contain a number of Sub-programmes and within each of them a number of sub-projects.

When considered and managed in that way it will be clear that a number of outcomes to be achieved can be done so through powers already within the UK's grasp - through establishment of policy, legislation and allocation of resources - both people and money.

Through setting each area up, e.g. Agriculture (I would have the role of the City of London as a Global Hub as a top priority because it is so important to fuelling recovery and it is a UK strength and a EU weakness) as a major Change Programme, the areas where we have a dependency or a preferred method of interacting with the EU will become clear - as will the target (Ideal, Realistic and Fallback) negotiating outcomes and consequences of not achieving them.

All this planning then will determine which deliverable/outcomes are on the critical path (the priorities) and indeed which ones are deemed prejudicial to success - and thereby determine the genuine red-lines.

What I can absolute guarantee though (and this is just a statement of the obvious) - we have wasted over 3 years and, whether being a Leaver or Remainer, that is absolutely criminal - you can bet the EU have not.

In planning and arrangements and/or the contingencies required to either implement preferred options or make viable a No-Deal outcome then 6 months is very valuable - 12months really precious - 3 fucking years would have been a god-send.

Utter incompetence of May and Robbins and whilst I fully agree Johnson owns it from this point we are starting from a position that is far worse than necessary due to the May, Robbins and the shithouses at Westminster that have been putting the management of Brexit into a straight-jacket for 3 years.

 

[blueinsa]

I only wanted a safe space for us Leavers :)

Seriously, a new Brexit thread probably is needed as this one is pretty much redundant as the majority of it will be about the Parliamentary battles, legal challenges, Bercow and so on. We are now in a totally different phase and we are certainly leaving the EU in a few weeks time.

Agree. Thread should reflect the next negotiation stage for the FTA.

Time to move on from remain v leave.

 

[Ardwick Green Blue]

or gloating about the faces of certain ‘losing’ remainers.

My attempted Countdown to Independence Day thread solely focused on my thoughts on the EU and the positives (from my viewpoint) in leaving.

You are right in that laughing at Miller etc is pointless as what they did or didn’t do has been consigned to the dustbin of history. But so is bleating about the fact that Leave has convincingly won the argument by saying things like ‘you now have to own it’ and so on.

We all ‘own’ leaving the EU because as a nation we voted in a government committed to do so.

 

[Saddleworth2]

My attempted Countdown to Independence Day thread solely focused on my thoughts on the EU and the positives (from my viewpoint) in leaving.

You are right in that laughing at Miller etc is pointless as what they did or didn’t do has been consigned to the dustbin of history. But so is bleating about the fact that Leave has convincingly won the argument by saying things like ‘you now have to own it’ and so on.

We all ‘own’ leaving the EU because as a nation we voted in a government committed to do so.

So I will restrict my reply by saying I would favour a new thread that concentrates on the TA and the path from here. You are utterly wrong though if you think a large subsection of the populace feel that they own leaving the EU.

 

[mcfc1632]

The time boxing is sensible as it does provide a hard stop for both sides. I have certainly negotiated contracts where you start at the highest level and then start to negotiate and agree around points of principle, not diving deeper until these are agreed. Indeed, I used that on both insource and outsource contracts.If they did that it would quickly flush out where the fires are going to be. It would certainly be a welcome change if they were addressed upfront rather than left in the too tricky pile until deadline approaches. I think if they did that it would be pretty clear by spring/early summer that we are heading for a no deal Brexit. We will see. Johnson has competing drivers so we will see what he is made of as a politician and how many of his new promises and commitments he can keep. Whichever way it goes, we should see signs of the competence of this negotiation quite soon.

Building on from my previous post....

I recognise and agree with the negotiating approach that you describe and it helps to identify where this Brexit process - I described as a Transformational Change Management programme rather than a one-off negotiation - differs.

When negotiating to insource or outsource you will be largely dealing with a known set or services/delivery/production and the target of negotiations can be considerably supported by, at the outset, being able to largely specify what is to be delivered and therefore the later evaluation process will be to assess on a basis of unit costs or improved service levels.

Yes, when the contract includes enablement of change - for example in the many IT-enabled Change Procurements - there is a need to define the 'To-Be-' delivery from which there is a managed transition from the 'As-Is' - but that still falls within a scope of quite easily understandable/describable etc.

The significant difference here is that in a lot of cases the 'To-Be' outcomes/delivery will a) not be known yet and b) in a number of cases dependent on what can be secured through negotiations (i.e. Determining the I, R & F positions) - and the No-Deal implications and therefore the genuine Red-Lines.

This will require detailed planning and can only be done if led by/highly influenced by seriously experienced professionals - this work should have started over 3 years ago.

FWIW I would take heart from not hearing very much for a couple of months and instead seeing a 'calming down' of all the focus and heat - that would give me confidence that behind closed doors, ideally within the COBRA regime, the right people have been mobilised and this work is taking place. I would not want to see the UK respond (yet again) to a EU determined timetable and schedule of areas to be addressed as priorities. There is indeed scope for the UK to be on the front foot as the machinations that the EU could previously rely have been thoroughly swept away and this will indeed impact the EU approach.

But whilst you mentioned that we are 'polls apart' - I do not see this to be the case.

I see the only significant difference between us being that I believe that you have always been coming from the POV that Brexit is daft and the difficulties, including the capability of our people/representatives, are so poor that we are better off stopping Brexit.

I have always been coming from the viewpoint that we are doing this - no ifs and no buts - the option of stopping and Remaining is not an option. So no matter the challenges of adequate resourcing or difficulties in securing agreement from the EU, we need to plan, start and commit - and therefore understanding, planning for and having contingencies for the implications of a No-Deal is essential - that does not mean that is what you want to be the outcome.

 

[Metal Biker]

or gloating about the faces of certain ‘losing’ remainers.

Like there hasn't been enough gloating these past few years on the remain side.

 

[Metal Biker]

Agree. Thread should reflect the next negotiation stage for the FTA.

Time to move on from remain v leave.

Remain is dead. Long live 'rejoin'!

 

[blueinsa]

Remain is dead. Long live 'rejoin'!

Indeed.

 

[mcfc1632]

or gloating about the faces of certain ‘losing’ remainers.

I can see why that is fair

But, IMO, you are again looking at it from a POV of someone that has not been on the receiving end of 3 years of gloating from Remainers - often exulting in the actions of Grieve, Bercow, Miller, Benn and others and speaking of them as if they were worthy of sainthood.

The scope of what has occurred on December 12th marks a seismic moment in these Brexit events - beyond even the wildest hopes of long-suffering Leavers.

In a similar vein to other comments I have made to you - I have not seen you on here suggesting that it is time for Remainers to move on and stop talking about campaign promises, buses and FTZs etc. You are right to pick me/others up on the unhelpfulness of 'gloating' - but I observe that you have been slow to previously pick up Remainers for gloating when the shoe was on the other foot. ​

I can freely accept that wishing to see the look on the faces of these people at the time when realism hit that all their machinations and the hubris shown has come to nothing, marks me out as petty on this front. I will just have to live with that as I cannot set that desire aside.

That does not mean that I do not want to move on - I do - but seeing their smugness trashed would help me achieve closure of the past - it is what it is.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Building on from my previous post....

I recognise and agree with the negotiating approach that you describe and it helps to identify where this Brexit process - I described as a Transformational Change Management programme rather than a one-off negotiation - differs.

When negotiating to insource or outsource you will be largely dealing with a known set or services/delivery/production and the target of negotiations can be considerably supported by, at the outset, being able to largely specify what is to be delivered and therefore the later evaluation process will be to assess on a basis of unit costs or improved service levels.

Yes, when the contract includes enablement of change - for example in the many IT-enabled Change Procurements - there is a need to define the 'To-Be-' delivery from which there is a managed transition from the 'As-Is' - but that still falls within a scope of quite easily understandable/describable etc.

The significant difference here is that in a lot of cases the 'To-Be' outcomes/delivery will a) not be known yet and b) in a number of cases dependent on what can be secured through negotiations (i.e. Determining the I, R & F positions) - and the No-Deal implications and therefore the genuine Red-Lines.

This will require detailed planning and can only be done if led by/highly influenced by seriously experienced professionals - this work should have started over 3 years ago.

FWIW I would take heart from not hearing very much for a couple of months and instead seeing a 'calming down' of all the focus and heat - that would give me confidence that behind closed doors, ideally within the COBRA regime, the right people have been mobilised and this work is taking place. I would not want to see the UK respond (yet again) to a EU determined timetable and schedule of areas to be addressed as priorities. There is indeed scope for the UK to be on the front foot as the machinations that the EU could previously rely have been thoroughly swept away and this will indeed impact the EU approach.

But whilst you mentioned that we are 'polls apart' - I do not see this to be the case.

I see the only significant difference between us being that I believe that you have always been coming from the POV that Brexit is daft and the difficulties, including the capability of our people/representatives, are so poor that we are better off stopping Brexit.

I have always been coming from the viewpoint that we are doing this - no ifs and no buts - the option of stopping and Remaining is not an option. So no matter the challenges of adequate resourcing or difficulties in securing agreement from the EU, we need to plan, start and commit - and therefore understanding, planning for and having contingencies for the implications of a No-Deal is essential - that does not mean that is what you want to be the outcome.

We are polls apart in believing that Brexit is the best way forward for the U.K. I started from a premise that it is a good thing for the U.K. to be a significant part of the EU + the change programme necessary to untangle us without significant harm is way beyond the capability of the current political leadership. I haven’t really shifted from that one iota. Where we do agree is the correct method of negotiating the next stage, through careful and clever negotiation using a proper change framework. I think it’s easy to agree that as we both come from a background of doing that in real life.
The next few months will tell us whether Johnson is all mouth and trousers or whether at least he has the gumption to surround himself with smarter people than he has up until now. I wonder what odds you would get on a no deal Brexit 31/12/20. Anyway, good to debate openly and without rancour.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Anyway, good to debate openly and without rancour.

Has he been thread banned?

 

[Saddleworth2]

I can see why that is fair

But, you are again looking at it from a POV of someone that has not been on the receiving end of 3 years of gloating from Remainers - often exulting in the actions of Grieve, Bercow, Miller, Benn and others and speaking of them as if they were worthy of sainthood.

The scope of what has occurred on December 12th marks a seismic moment in these Brexit events - beyond even the wildest hopes of long-suffering Leavers.

In a similar vein to other comments I have made to you - I have not seen you on here suggesting that it is time for Remainers to move on and stop talking about campaign promises, buses and FTZs etc. You are right to pick me/others up on the unhelpfulness of 'gloating' - but I observe that you have been slow to previously pick up Remainers for gloating when the shoe was on the other foot. ​

I can freely accept that wishing to see the look on the faces of these people at the time when realism hit that all their machinations and the hubris shown has come to nothing, marks me out as petty on this front. I will just have to live with that as I cannot set that desire aside.

That does not mean that I do not want to move on - I do - but seeing their smugness trashed would help me achieve closure of the past - it is what it is.

I’m not going down a route of who has suffered the most insults as we all have been subject to many. I certainly would have celebrated a second referendum had one been granted so with the level of polarisation it wouldn’t be fair to criticise others.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Remain is dead. Long live 'rejoin'!

Good point, as those who have spent the last 42 months doing there utmost to stop Brexit, and their total
commitment that the EU is the place to be, I'd have thought that a 'Rejoin' movement would have started.
Maybe it's the fact that after a referendum, a GE, and yet another GE, that has consistently indicated the country's desire to quit
has tempered that movement somewhat.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Good point, as those who have spent the last 42 months doing there utmost to stop Brexit, and their total
commitment that the EU is the place to be, I'd have thought that a 'Rejoin' movement would have started.
Maybe it's the fact that after a referendum, a GE, and yet another GE, that has consistently indicated the country's desire to quit
has tempered that movement somewhat.

Your views on the sentiments of the country are a little too strident. The reality is the country is pretty much split down the middle on this.

 

[blueinsa]

Your views on the sentiments of the country are a little too strident. The reality is the country is pretty much split down the middle on this.

Millions of citizens of course want to remain but yet again, at the ballot box the electorate had a very clear choice between remain and leave at the GE and overwhelmingly voted for the leave option.

It is not split nearly as much as many want us to believe mate.

 

[west didsblue]

Millions of citizens of course want to remain but yet again, at the ballot box the electorate had a very clear choice between remain and leave at the GE and overwhelmingly voted for the leave option.

It is not split nearly as much as many want us to believe mate.

Yep. 45% voted for Leave supporting parties at the GE. Overwhelming.

 

[Phil1]

Millions of citizens of course want to remain but yet again, at the ballot box the electorate had a very clear choice between remain and leave at the GE and overwhelmingly voted for the leave option.

It is not split nearly as much as many want us to believe mate.

4% doesn’t seem to be all that overwhelming to me.
The general election was won because Corbyn is perceived to be some kind of monster hellbent on destroying the U.K. I’m sure Brexit had its part to play but I think it’s still a valid point by GDM that the country is split.

 

[blueinsa]

Yep. 45% voted for Leave supporting parties at the GE. Overwhelming.

Oh dear.

Stop counting Labour votes.

Its been your mistake all along.

 

[west didsblue]

Oh dear.

Stop counting Labour votes.

Its been your mistake all along.

No. I’m not counting the GE as a referendum like you are.

 

[meltonblue]

Millions of citizens of course want to remain but yet again, at the ballot box the electorate had a very clear choice between remain and leave at the GE and overwhelmingly voted for the leave option.

It is not split nearly as much as many want us to believe mate.

They didn’t have a clear choice to be fair, there never can be with an election. I know plenty of people that didn’t vote thinking solely about Brexit, myself included.

There’s definitely a split, perhaps less so between remain and leave as plenty of remain voters want the referendum to be honoured. The split is also in the way we leave though.