Another new Brexit thread

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Ancient Citizen said:
No, it only seems reasonably clear that our government will fold in trade discussions, to those who have
continually been wrong in every prediction they have made. When they have demonstrated, what you claim will be fact,
then such accusations may be valid, as yet, nothing of the sort has been demonstrated.
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The Irish sea border that no UK Prime minister could ever accept says different.
 
Ancient Citizen said:
No, it only seems reasonably clear that our government will fold in trade discussions, to those who have
continually been wrong in every prediction they have made. When they have demonstrated, what you claim will be fact,
then such accusations may be valid, as yet, nothing of the sort has been demonstrated.
Click to expand...
Irish sea border
£39 billion
 
Barnier has issued the EU negotiating guidelines but nothing surprising in them. Looks like fishing will be an early flashpoint as they are asking for the current status quo to continue.

Johnson up later to detail the UK position but again there should be no surprises as it has been widely briefed over the last few days & Raab has referenced the main points in various interviews.

On the face of it you would think there is no chance of the two sides reaching any agreement but these are just opening shots.
 
For those that say the EU is not Europe.
Technically they are correct, however of the 51 sovereign states with at least some territory in Europe 27 are EU members, 8 are either in the EEA/Single Market or have bilateral relations closely integrating them with the EU, a further 7 are accepted as candidate countries at various stages of negotiations and 3 more want to join but are not yet candidate countries. That leaves six of which 4 are predominantly Asian. So the only country entirely in Europe that is nothing to do with the EU and doesn't want to be is Belarus. Then there's us who are still de facto in the EU but with aspirations to be like Belarus next year.
Can't wait.
 
remainers on this thread be like.......

tenor.gif
 
joe123 said:
Why? Just because you voted one way or another doesn't mean you're more or less likely to experience the best/worst of the Brexit outcomes. Just because people expect it to go badly because of countless reasons, doesn't me we actually want that to happen and experience any hardship.
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Ive seen countless posts from embittered Remainers on the Guardian wishing exactly that & with numerous references to Nissan pulling out of Sunderland.

This isn’t reflective of Remainers in general but it is of the hardcore fanatics.
 
west didsblue said:
Why?
We need all the good news we can get if there's a hard Brexit.

Nissan hope to corner the UK market in the event of a hard Brexit because they know it's likely they'll have a fairly clear run if there's tariffs on imports and the other UK manufacturers that are predominantly mainland Europe based consolidate to the EU.
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Sounds like nothing is decided either way.
"
Nissan denied having made such a plan, however, and said its Sunderland plant would be under threat along with its European operations if the UK fails to ensure tariff-free access to the EU market. Following the UK’s departure from the EU on Friday, both sides are expected to set out their negotiating positions on Monday before trade talks next month.

A Nissan spokesman said on Monday: “We deny such a contingency plan exists. We’ve modelled every possible ramification of Brexit and the fact remains that our entire business both in the UK and in Europe is not sustainable in the event of WTO [World Trade Organisation] tariffs."
 
blueparrot said:
Sounds like nothing is decided either way.
"
Nissan denied having made such a plan, however, and said its Sunderland plant would be under threat along with its European operations if the UK fails to ensure tariff-free access to the EU market. Following the UK’s departure from the EU on Friday, both sides are expected to set out their negotiating positions on Monday before trade talks next month.

A Nissan spokesman said on Monday: “We deny such a contingency plan exists. We’ve modelled every possible ramification of Brexit and the fact remains that our entire business both in the UK and in Europe is not sustainable in the event of WTO [World Trade Organisation] tariffs."
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Oh well, it was good news while it lasted.
Back to reality
https://www.ft.com/content/5b7948ac-42c1-11ea-abea-0c7a29cd66fe
In summary:
Car production at its lowest level for 10 years - down 14%.
Exports down 14.7%.
80% of exports to EU and countries with EU trade deals - even more dependent on EU exports due to exports to China and Japan falling sharply.
Investment down sharply for 3 years even counting the JLR investment last year.
Future investment dependent on Brexit clarity.

Anyway, Brexit isn't about the economy so who cares.
 
west didsblue said:
Irish sea border
£39 billion
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Add a plus to the 39 billion, and that sums up nicely red lines we have crossed.
Not to mention that in the (non binding) political declaration we signed up in principle to level playing field provisions.
We're now trying to rubbish this but it doesn't help our credibility or negotiating position when we're now trying to back out of something we agreed to in principle two months ago.
To return to the original point , the Irish sea border ( the thing that NO British Prime Minister could ever agree to) with it's implications for sovereignty and the Union is the biggest climbdown.
 
Ardwick Green Blue said:
Ive seen countless posts from embittered Remainers on the Guardian wishing exactly that & with numerous references to Nissan pulling out of Sunderland.

This isn’t reflective of Remainers in general but it is of the hardcore fanatics.
Click to expand...

We discussed this briefly last night and it is a logical reaction to UK erecting trade barriers plus Nissan trying to take advantage of having a first class facility in the UK. It needs several things to happen to make it viable. Other car brands pulling back from the UK market allowing space for Nissan to try and capture 1 in 5 of the UK market and getting component production in the UK. An FT article from 2017 talks about this with reference to Nissan.

https://www.ft.com/content/b56d0936-6ae0-11e7-bfeb-33fe0c5b7eaa

The natural consequence of making the UK a more protectionist, high trade barrier economy is that you are obliged to increase the domestic footprint which is what Nissan is trying to tap into especially as they seem keen to keep the Sunderland facility going which is at half capacity currently.

Other factors. What are the other ‘contingency plans’? Who is driving this one - Nissan execs in Japan or UK? Renault reaction, chances of capturing 1 in 5 of the UK market, final shape of the EU/UK deal which we might not know for years and so on.
 
Ardwick Green Blue said:
Ive seen countless posts from embittered Remainers on the Guardian wishing exactly that & with numerous references to Nissan pulling out of Sunderland.

This isn’t reflective of Remainers in general but it is of the hardcore fanatics.
Click to expand...
That's true, or at least a fair interpretation from a moderate leave supporter.
It's as valid as the fact that the knuckle draggers that turned up in parliament square, or at least those seen in the media, are a minority that probably doesn't reflect the more moderate majority that were persuaded for whatever reasons, to vote leave.
The challenge to you as a country is to get the moderate voice heard.
Easier said than done. Because from the outside looking in, it doesn't look to me that the election result was as clear an endorsement of leaving the EU as leavers maintain.
I think it was a clear endorsement that democracy dictated that the referendum result had to be upheld.

If that's true then it still leaves a sizeable population that still are not convinced by Johnson's government's arguments, but voted for the sake of democracy.
Alienating this moderate pro-remain voice will not end well.
Not saying that anyone in here is going to make a material difference to anyone else's opinion and that it would make a difference to anyone's life over the next few years.
But the government thinking that they have a mandate to do what they want and ignoring this middle ground on both sides, will not end well IMO.
 
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joe123 said:
Why? Just because you voted one way or another doesn't mean you're more or less likely to experience the best/worst of the Brexit outcomes. Just because people expect it to go badly because of countless reasons, doesn't me we actually want that to happen and experience any hardship.
Click to expand...

There is one very vocal remain campaigner/poster on here who has made no secret of the fact he wants it all to go tits up so he can say told you so and laugh at all the stupid people who voted for it.

He often finishes his posts with lots of Hahahahahahaha and lolololololololol and he is a really really good story teller as well.
 
BobKowalski said:
Johnson suggesting that US accept UK animal welfare standards and wants the US to reduce non tariff barriers. State of this nonsense. Listening to it should come with its own health warning.
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Trade deals are done throughout the world using mutually recognised standards but the EU always tries to load in competitive advantage disguised as a treaty commitment to regulatory alignment - and then routinely concludes its agreements with major countries without it - e.g. Canada, Japan and in a few months the UK. The EU negotiators are just a bunch of gangsters like everybody else.
 
Boris going for a no deal to make his mates richer shocker.

At least we've got blue passports eh...
 
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