COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Bill Walker]

Were all doomed.
Ah well, it was fun.

 

[Gabriel]

Interesting how the media is increasingly mentioning the knock-on economic effects both for China and the world. This episode could yet be a trigger for recession as companies around the world become unable to produce/sell. Pressure from within and outside for China to get its workforce back in harness, but can that really be achieved without jeopardizing even more people?

 

[bluetonium]

Interesting how the media is increasingly mentioning the knock-on economic effects both for China and the world. This episode could yet be a trigger for recession as companies around the world become unable to produce/sell. Pressure from within and outside for China to get its workforce back in harness, but can that really be achieved without jeopardizing even more people?

It's certainly a rapidly growing concern and one that will have a dramatic effect if the peak of the virus is indeed not going to hit until April or so. Whilst my company isn't as reliant on China as our competitors, for example, we can't cover all of the demand in all cases should there be a shortfall in the market.

That will lead to price increases, lack of production, reducued shifts and shortages of finished goods. We'd be legally bound to honour the contracts we do have in place, so anyone who hasn't aligned with EU manufacture at least for part of their demand, has no chance of being able to secure materials if China continues to have issues.

We've already had to take measures ourselves to protect our own supply chain even where there is no reliance on China. Companies in the manufacturing sectors panicked with Brexit, then destocked massively and are now left in a position of running stocks down after Christmas. Those ordering from China either have goods on the water already, but only to cover to March I would bet, or are about to find themselves with a potential crisis.

That said, as you rightly say, there is a huge danger in just forcing people back to work in China. I fear, as is usually the case, that ultimately the need for money, food and even freed, will force the decision here. And that is even without looking at the morality of it, which to be honest I don't think will come into it given China's current working practices.

Officially the advice on goods from China, including eBay packages, is that it will be fine, but the evidence suggesting the virus can live for 28 days, maybe even longer, in the right conditions is a worry.

 

[aguero93:20]

It's certainly a rapidly growing concern and one that will have a dramatic effect if the peak of the virus is indeed not going to hit until April or so. Whilst my company isn't as reliant on China as our competitors, for example, we can't cover all of the demand in all cases should there be a shortfall in the market.

That will lead to price increases, lack of production, reducued shifts and shortages of finished goods. We'd be legally bound to honour the contracts we do have in place, so anyone who hasn't aligned with EU manufacture at least for part of their demand, has no chance of being able to secure materials if China continues to have issues.

We've already had to take measured ourselves to protect our own supply chain even where there is no reliance on China. People panicked with Brexit, then destocked massively and are now left in a position of running stocks down after Christmas. Those ordering from China either have goods on the water already, but only to cover to March I would bet, or are about to find themselves with a potential crisis.

That said, as you rightly say, there is a huge danger in just forcing people back to work in China. I fear, as is usually the case, that ultimately the need for money, food and even freed, will force the decision here. And that is even without looking at the morality of it, which to be honest I don't think will come into it given China's current working practices.

Officially the advice on goods from China, including eBay packages, is that it will be fine, but the evidence suggesting the virus can live for 28 days, maybe even longer, in the right conditions is a worry.

Just ban all organics and spray everything else down with nitrogen.

 

[Chipmeister]

The situation is a lot worse than is being reported.
I was speaking with our suppliers in China this week about future orders and dates, the factories are not back at work after the Chinese New Year and he said everywhere is deserted, people in their homes.
I was sending some samples and he told me there is no post service and when it opens the backlog will be very bad.

 

[Gabriel]

It's certainly a rapidly growing concern and one that will have a dramatic effect if the peak of the virus is indeed not going to hit until April or so. Whilst my company isn't as reliant on China as our competitors, for example, we can't cover all of the demand in all cases should there be a shortfall in the market.

That will lead to price increases, lack of production, reducued shifts and shortages of finished goods. We'd be legally bound to honour the contracts we do have in place, so anyone who hasn't aligned with EU manufacture at least for part of their demand, has no chance of being able to secure materials if China continues to have issues.

We've already had to take measures ourselves to protect our own supply chain even where there is no reliance on China. Companies in the manufacturing sectors panicked with Brexit, then destocked massively and are now left in a position of running stocks down after Christmas. Those ordering from China either have goods on the water already, but only to cover to March I would bet, or are about to find themselves with a potential crisis.

That said, as you rightly say, there is a huge danger in just forcing people back to work in China. I fear, as is usually the case, that ultimately the need for money, food and even freed, will force the decision here. And that is even without looking at the morality of it, which to be honest I don't think will come into it given China's current working practices.

Officially the advice on goods from China, including eBay packages, is that it will be fine, but the evidence suggesting the virus can live for 28 days, maybe even longer, in the right conditions is a worry.

Thanks for the explanation and timeline. The ‘China sneezes and the world catches a cold’ aphorism never felt more apposite.

The morality point will be largely ignored in the West if the wheels keep turning, but if the death totals ratchet up in China, then the government there will face greater domestic pressure and, ironically, greater Western criticism.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Regardless of whether this gets worse or better over the next month (unfortunately, all evidence points to the former, putting it mildly), there are going to be far-reaching political, social, and economic implications within China and around the world. These implications are magnified by the global economies shift to greater import/export trade (specifically dependent on Chinese manufacturing) and just-in-time supply chains (which breakdown almost immediately with even short disruptions in the network).

Unfortunately, the genie is already out of the bottle, even ignoring the great and tragic threat to human health/life.

 

[SebastianBlue]

This is a fairly good overview of the current and potential future global economic impact of this coronavirus outbreak, a second order effect that can be as devastating in the long-term (though obviously in a different way) to China and the world-at-large as the horrible direct impact on human life of the illness itself.

The coronavirus is already hurting the world economy. Here's why it could get really scary.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/business/coronavirus-global-economy/index.html

 

[Tricky_Trev]

Still within this country people seem oblivious to the reality of this virus. We’ll see in a few months how much of a joke it is. I don’t trust anything China say about it, it’s definitely miles worse than what they want people to know. I get not wanting to panic the entire planet, but it’s still odd how many people here think we’re fine and dandy just because we’re not third world. They worry more about the masked fucking singer. Says it all.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Still within this country people seem oblivious to the reality of this virus. We’ll see in a few months how much of a joke it is. I don’t trust anything China say about it, it’s definitely miles worse than what they want people to know. I get not wanting to panic the entire planet, but it’s still odd how many people here think we’re fine and dandy just because we’re not third world. They worry more about the masked fucking singer. Says it all.

People don’t get particularly bothered about normal flu but look at how many people die from it each year worldwide:

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

Also people know that smoking causes lung cancer, eating a poor diet can cause depression and can also cause cancer, and leading a sedentary lifestyle can contribute to every single illness and ailment that you can think of... yet people still smoke, eat shit and don’t exercise

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Interesting how the media is increasingly mentioning the knock-on economic effects both for China and the world. This episode could yet be a trigger for recession as companies around the world become unable to produce/sell. Pressure from within and outside for China to get its workforce back in harness, but can that really be achieved without jeopardizing even more people?

Sure it will be good for the biotech companies.

 

[aguero93:20]

People don’t get particularly bothered about normal flu but look at how many people die from it each year worldwide:

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

Only kills poor people and old people though

 

[SebastianBlue]

People don’t get particularly bothered about normal flu but look at how many people die from it each year worldwide:

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

Also people know that smoking causes lung cancer, eating a poor diet can cause depression and can also cause cancer, and leading a sedentary lifestyle can cause every single illness and ailment that you can think of... yet people still smoke, eat shit and don’t exercise

It’s a good point.

Here is a decent article comparing the seasonal flu with the novel coronavirus (based on what is currently known, of course).

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

The seasonal flu should be taken seriously, but a novel virus outbreak is a different situation, especially one with very troubling epidemiological modelling based on current information (which is still fairly limited due to Chinese government control of info flow from the primary infection zone and purported index centroid).

It doesn’t have to be one or the other.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Only kills poor people and old people though

And a few other at-risk cohorts, for both viruses, which I am unfortunately among now.

There are few on here that have indicated they are.

 

[aguero93:20]

And a few other at-risk cohorts, for both viruses, which I am unfortunately among now.

There are few on here that have indicated they are.

Plenty of FOCs on here.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Plenty of FOCs on here.

Don’t I foc’ing know it.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

It’s a good point.

Here is a decent article comparing the seasonal flu with the novel coronavirus (based on what is currently known, of course).

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

The seasonal flu should be taken seriously, but a novel virus outbreak is a different situation, especially one with very troubling epidemiological modelling based on current information (which is still fairly limited due to Chinese government control of info flow from the primary infection zone and purported index centroid).

It doesn’t have to be one or the other.

So the death rate is 40 times greater than flu and transmission is almost double per case. And that’s only based off dubious figures. The reality will be different, worse almost certainly.

 

[SebastianBlue]

So the death rate is 40 times greater than flu and transmission is almost double per case. And that’s only based off dubious figures. The reality will be different, worse almost certainly.

It could go either way.

Normally the initial mortality rate is higher than the actual rate, even before treatment regimes, vaccines, and antiviral medication are developed which obviously will further reduce the mortality rate. This is because in the beginning most confirmed cases will skew to severe (as obviously those with acute symptoms will be the first to seek out treatment). But over time more mild cases will be confirmed, increasing the total number of those infected, whilst generally maintaining the same actual number of people dying from the illness.

However, many experts are saying that it could be different with this novel coronavirus because complete information about the actual scale of the outbreak is not being provided. It’s normal not to have completely accurate counts initially but China is restricting epidiomelogical metrics so much that it is difficult even to create decent estimations. And a lot of what is leaking out of China is not good at all from a scale and severity assessment standpoint.

So ultimately the current mortality rate of ~2%, R0 of ~2-3, and 60-80% incapacitation rate (also pretty negatively impactful to a society/economy) could very well go up or down as time goes on.

Based on what we are now seeing on a few cruise ships which are themselves seeing mini novel coronavirus outbreaks (making them unfortunate scientific studies), it’s looking like the average R0 might actually be higher.

 

[TonyM]

If it's truw that very few young people are dieting that's great news.

 

[waspish]

Still within this country people seem oblivious to the reality of this virus. We’ll see in a few months how much of a joke it is. I don’t trust anything China say about it, it’s definitely miles worse than what they want people to know. I get not wanting to panic the entire planet, but it’s still odd how many people here think we’re fine and dandy just because we’re not third world. They worry more about the masked fucking singer. Says it all.

A vaccine is being tested now if it works or not we don’t know but Like I said on here last week they’ll be a Vaccine in 2 months for this.