Another new Brexit thread

[west didsblue]

This is as well as kirk douglas dieing, coronavirus, and Phil Schofield turning gay. The ikea shutting in Coventry is likely the first of many also.

But we both agree that won't happen. We'll sign up to a deal that more or less maintains alignment and nothing much will change. That's what you've said previously.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The main problem with our negotiating position is that we have a habit of blatantly contradicting ourselves on an almost weekly basis, and our hardline approach to the EU is not backed up by appropriate spending on the infrastructure needed to make that hardline position a reality in the event it is needed. The EU know we're bluffing. We know that the EU know that we're bluffing and it will be all about the messaging to the Tory base when our untenable negotiating position totally collapses.
As long as the Mail and the Sun declare a total victory for Boris's superior negotiating skills then it's job done irrespective of the deal, just like selling out NI in the WA was painted as some kind of victory that only Boris could have secured.

All very logical apart from one thing. The EU are dealing with someone who is an autocratic idiot prepared to do whatever it takes, against all logic. And whether that is true or not, it appears to be true and appearances are everything. So long as Boris looks to all intents and purposes like we are leaving come what may on December 31st - a "bluff" very easy to carry off since we passed legislation to that effect - then the EU will be forced to find compromises to make sure that departure is with a deal. It's inevitable IMO. The only question is just how much we will get.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

But we both agree that won't happen. We'll sign up to a deal that more or less maintains alignment and nothing much will change. That's what you've said previously.

I hopes so, but since then we've had storm ciara, hs2 going ahead, and Harry and megan leaving :-(

 

[Chippy_boy]

No they are not ‘meaningless’. The EU will not grant permanent equivalence on financial services to an non EU, non EEA country outside of the Single Market. Equally I am certain the UK will not offer a permanent deal on fishing based on the current arrangements. Both sides will look to keep a right to review or unilaterally withdraw in these areas.

The EU will only do an FTA if we agree to a level playing field. If we don’t then it is at best a quick and shallow deal on tariffs which is barely a rung or two above no deal and WTO. Point to note. The greater the friction and trade barriers between UK and EU the greater the friction and trade barriers between GB and NI.

Your assessment that our hand is stronger now that we have conceded on the three points the EU most cared about (plus GI’s) in the WA is a novel take and one I look forward to seeing in action over the next eleven months. Please also highlight the preparations, be it construction of new infrastructure, expansion of existing infrastructure, recruitment, training and IT development that we are currently rushing forward with, thereby ensuring we can make good on our threat to ‘walk away’. I have left out preparations for setting up new regulatory bodies from chemicals to medicines as I didn’t wish to appear ‘too negative’.

See my post above in reference to your final paragraph.

And I see your "unbiased reporter" role, only lasted for 1 post. Figured as much. We're back to you giving us your opinions on what the EU will and will not accept, which I dare say you have mentioned once of twice before.

 

[west didsblue]

I hopes so, but since then we've had storm ciara, hs2 going ahead, and Harry and megan leaving :-(

Brexit's got a lot to answer for, that's for sure.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The whole rules thing has always been silly as they just do not matter with respect to trade.

Let's take this example - I make spanners and I want to make spanners to sell to the US, UK and EU.

So I make three spanners, one for each market which complies with the rules of all three markets.

If I sell my EU spanner tariff free to the EU then how am I infringing upon the integrity of the single market which means I can't do it tariff free?

If I have to have FOM to sell my spanners tariff free then that is a political blackmail argument essentially and not a trade argument.

Playing devil's advocate here mate, I think the argument is that unless the EU give us a deal which is "shit", then other countries will up sticks and do their own Brexit. So yes, it is blackmail.

There is absolutely nothing preventing the EU from agreeing a comprehensive goods and services trade deal, without strings, other than that they don't want to. However, I do not mean to trivialise that. They don't want to with good reason: They do not want a much less regulated, much more competitive major economy, right on their doorstep with open access to EU markets. That is what all of the "level playing field" (i.e. nobbled) crap is all about.

 

[west didsblue]

All very logical apart from one thing. The EU are dealing with someone who is an autocratic idiot prepared to do whatever it takes, against all logic. And whether that is true or not, it appears to be true and appearances are everything. So long as Boris looks to all intents and purposes like we are leaving come what may on December 31st - a "bluff" very easy to carry off since we passed legislation to that effect - then the EU will be forced to find compromises to make sure that departure is with a deal. It's inevitable IMO. The only question is just how much we will get.

The "doing whatever it takes" only relates to the spin he will put on it after he signs up to a deal that maintains alignment. In other words he'll get his media backers on board and hope his core support don't notice that he's bottled it.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

I hopes so, but since then we've had storm ciara, hs2 going ahead, and Harry and megan leaving :-(

Those blaming Brexit for Storm Ciara are full of bluster.
Don worry it’ll all blow over.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Playing devil's advocate here mate, I think the argument is that unless the EU give us a deal which is "shit", then other countries will up sticks and do their own Brexit. So yes, it is blackmail.

There is absolutely nothing preventing the EU from agreeing a comprehensive goods and services trade deal, without strings, other than that they don't want to.

I think the golf club analogy applies here, if we play on the course every day but are refusing to pay annual subs or follow club rules going forward you it is easy to anticipate what the club will say. You can pay to play as other non members do but membership is cheaper and has more benefits, and the rules are the rules and you follow them or you don't play. Other golf courses are available as they always have been - you just happen to live next to this one and you like this course.

 

[hilts]

The "doing whatever it takes" only relates to the spin he will put on it after he signs up to a deal that maintains alignment. In other words he'll get his media backers on board and hope his core support don't notice that he's bottled it.

We shall see in the meantime you can carry on in your role as bluemoon EU mouthpiece and PR guru. It's going to be a long long wait.

 

[Len Rum]

The whole rules thing has always been silly as they just do not matter with respect to trade.
Let's take this example - I make spanners and I want to make spanners to sell to the US, UK and EU.
So I make three spanners, one for each market which complies with the rules of all three markets.
If I sell my EU spanner tariff free to the EU then how am I infringing upon the integrity of the single market which means I can't do it tariff free?
If I have to have FOM to sell my spanners tariff free then that is a political blackmail argument essentially and not a trade argument.

Of course you can sell your spanners into the EU if they meet EU regs without infringing upon the integrity of their market.
But you still need an agreement on zero price tariffs to sell them tariff free.
And you need a much deeper FTA to avoid paperwork,bureaucracy and customs checks.

 

[west didsblue]

We shall see in the meantime you can carry on in your role as bluemoon EU mouthpiece and PR guru. It's going to be a long long wait.

What do you think will happen?

 

[Len Rum]

The bottom line is, if the EU is happy to piss away a £68bn balance of trade surplus with the UK, then they are indeed an organisation best to be out of.

Ah, the old 'they won't trade with us the way we want' so we're better out.
We can then nip out to China and USA and they will allow us exactly what we want.
Simples.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The bottom line is, if the EU is happy to piss away a £68bn balance of trade surplus with the UK, then they are indeed an organisation best to be out of.

I seem to be playing devil's advocate rather a lot, but anyway...

I cannot see sales of BMW's, Mercs, VW's and Audis dropping to zero, can you? 10% extra on the wholesale price, much of which will get swallowed by the UK retailers and finance houses. I doubt sales of these cars - and most other goods in fact - will go down much at all. And of course they get to sell more to the other 26 countries where the UK product is now more expensive. I cannot see it being something they are losing sleep over.

That said, they do want our £39bn divorce payment and any loss of trade is undesirable. So they do want a deal and doubtless (IMO) will therefore offer some compromises to allow both sides to save face and get one.

 

[Len Rum]

I agree with this bit.
We have no choice but to sit back and watch.

Nope.
We hold the lying bar stewards to account for what they promised.
'Easiest deal in history', 'better off but at least no worse off', free trade zone from Iceland to outer Mongolia (or wherever)'.

 

[BobKowalski]

See my post above in reference to your final paragraph.

And I see your "unbiased reporter" role, only lasted for 1 post. Figured as much. We're back to you giving us your opinions on what the EU will and will not accept, which I dare say you have mentioned once of twice before.

I am not an ‘unbiased reporter’. I sometimes report what is being said without comment leaving people to make their own minds up on the relevance, or otherwise, of what is being said.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I am not an ‘unbiased reporter’. I sometimes report what is being said without comment leaving people to make their own minds up on the relevance, or otherwise, of what is being said.

Fair enough Bob, I was only pulling your leg.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I think the golf club analogy applies here, if we play on the course every day but are refusing to pay annual subs or follow club rules going forward you it is easy to anticipate what the club will say. You can pay to play as other non members do but membership is cheaper and has more benefits, and the rules are the rules and you follow them or you don't play. Other golf courses are available as they always have been - you just happen to live next to this one and you like this course.

Analogies are always flawed. But continuing your analogy, I am Tiger Woods.

The club would really like it if I continue to use the course, notwithstanding my shitty attitude about fees and rules. So now what are we to do? I want to play there and the club wants me to. Is the club going to bar Tiger Woods from the course? Or are they going to come to sort kind of compromise where we both win?

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Analogies are always flawed. But continuing your analogy, I am Tiger Woods.

The club would really like it if I continue to use the course, notwithstanding my shitty attitude about fees and rules. So now what are we to do? I want to play there and the club wants me to. Is the club going to bar Tiger Woods from the course? Or are they going to come to sort kind of compromise where we both win?

I preferred the bag of spanners analogy a few pages back.
Thought that was apt.

 

[west didsblue]

Analogies are always flawed. But continuing your analogy, I am Tiger Woods.

The club would really like it if I continue to use the course, notwithstanding my shitty attitude about fees and rules. So now what are we to do? I want to play there and the club wants me to. Is the club going to bar Tiger Woods from the course? Or are they going to come to sort kind of compromise where we both win?

In reality we're Jack Nicklaus. Used to be the best but a bit past it and hoping that previous glories will be enough to convince the club to let me play for free.