COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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SebastianBlue said:
Fairly sure he was referencing a pan-market forecast.

As it is, there are already conservative projections for a 0.5-1% shave off the Chinese GDP and a 0.1-0.3% hit to the global GDP (depending on which analyses you review) just based on the current state of China/global disruption and recent company revenues projection guidance (which have generally been adjusted down).

From my professional opinion, I think it will actually be more substantial than that when all is said and done, but we won’t be able to say that with any certainty for quite awhile.

I agree, it will be devastating for many of us in the world, especially given the global economy and fiscal systems were soft to begin with, so any downturn (for any reason) was likely to be even worse than 2008.
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This will be worse than the GFC in many ways as that was a credit crisis of sorts if the pandemic lasts as long as predicted by some health authorities , low interest and low inflation and low wage growth are bad recipes with high household debt when global growth shrinks and I agree it will be bigger than 0.3 per cent if the fear factor continues , fortunately at least to date the death rates are low and the virus is not aggressive on the bodies immune system super funds will be hit very hard as cash is not an option anymore.

he only saving grace is governments can borrow cheap money , the Chinese can print as much as they want , and Government Stimulus packages which are likely to be required will not set them into as much deficit as back in 2008 so the public will be better placed in most countries however the private sector will be worse off than in 2008 if the pandemic continues for 6 months or more.
 
mancity1 said:
This will be worse than the GFC in many ways as that was a credit crisis of sorts if the pandemic lasts as long as predicted by some health authorities , low interest and low inflation and low wage growth are bad recipes with high household debt when global growth shrinks and I agree it will be bigger than 0.3 per cent if the fear factor continues , fortunately at least to date the death rates are low and the virus is not aggressive on the bodies immune system super funds will be hit very hard as cash is not an option anymore.

he only saving grace is governments can borrow cheap money , the Chinese can print as much as they want , and Government Stimulus packages which are likely to be required will not set them into as much deficit as back in 2008 so the public will be better placed in most countries however the private sector will be worse off than in 2008 if the pandemic continues for 6 months or more.
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Generally agreed.

Though, the big issue with quantitative easing is that deficits, problematic market propping that will soon become unsustainable, and already low discount rates for the major economic drivers (US, China, UK, EU) will make it much less effective and potentially destructive over time.

This downturn was always coming, but this viral outbreak is likely expediting the march to it, unfortunately.
 
George Hannah said:
I think we'll cope very well
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SebastianBlue said:
Mine, as well, but possibly for different reasons.

It’ll soon make everyone’s job a nightmare, though, until it doesn’t, because they don’t have one.
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Millwallawayveteran1988 said:
Making my job a fcking nightmare.
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Are you traders or work in the city? I was going to suggest put options on the ftse 100 a week ago but felt it was crass to give advice on profiteering on others misfortunes - should of taken my own advice and I could have stopped work for a while
 
SebastianBlue said:
Generally agreed.

Though, the big issue with quantitative easing is that deficits, problematic market propping that will soon become unsustainable, and already low discount rates for the major economic drivers (US, China, UK, EU) will make it much less effective and potentially destructive over time.

This downturn was always coming, but this viral outbreak is likely expediting the march to it, unfortunately.
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All valid points albeit some different variables at play between the major economies.

Serious problem hear in Australia is the inability for households to drive down debt per equity despite 20 years of moderate growth but in reality many recessions per capita and few government surpluses in that time.

Low productivity growth per capita and well below required retirement savings per capita given the living age increase in the last 40 years means heaps of stress to come on the public purse.

You can envisage negative cash rates without the market propping Seb Blue in a number of countries and as you say artificial propping by reserve banks can only go so far before unemployment sky rockets.

Our declared rate in Australia has been between 5.7 per cent and 5 per cent for some 13 years now but again per capita and given the decrease in the participation rate and reduced hours for the massive increase in casual labour as work forces across the major economies become less unionised overall spells some troubled financial times which as you said no doubt were spelling downturn so in some sense the acceleration of this is in sinister way I suppose a small positive for the medium outlook.

We a small economy on a world scale of course but impacted significantly by Chinese demands for our minerals especially coal and iron ore.

Despite most households living on the weekly wage to meet outgoings with only super for employees being saved at around 10 per cent of the wage many will be doing it tough in the years to come.
 
aguero93:20 said:
marcus said:
Doesnt ‘regular’ flu kill 650,000 people a year? But everyones wetting their knickers over this ?
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This one has something like twice the transmission rate and twice the mortality rate.
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As of right now, the mortality rate of the coronavirus is estimated to be around 50 times that of seasonal flu, it just hasn’t had the same time to spread as extensively, which is what global health organisations are trying to limit.

And it will be much higher in countries with less-developed healthcare systems or large populations that live in areas that cannot be readily accessed by medical teams, unfortunately.

A large part of the action that is being taken right now is to try to stop the virus from taking hold in countries/regions like India, Pakistan, Central America, Africa, etc.
 
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