COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Uffa said:
Regarding face masks: even FFP2 (those used by medics) are only useful as long as you know how to use them correctly; for example they're only effective for a few hours, so wearing one all day long doesn't protect you. As for FFP1, they're useless against virus particles.
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This. Our medical staff need them, and know how to use and dispose of them. Why would anyone want to collect germs and have it hanging round their face all day? The main benefit is to prevent the wearer spreading the virus and they should be quarantined anyway.
 
The death rate must be higher then 3%

Dividing 93455 known cases by 3198 deaths doesn't work ... more of the known cases might also die.

True death rate should be recoveries 50743 divided by deaths 3198.....over 6%
 
From the bbc website from the chief medical officers statements on various outlets ....


Prof Whitty: 80% of people could be infected in "worst case"
Here are some of the other key points the Chief Medical Officer, Prof Chris Whitty, said on Radio Four this morning.

Beyond containment?

Prof Whitty reiterated that the government plan announced yesterday is to "contain, delay research and mitigate".

But he added: "We were firmly in contain stage, now I think we're on the borderline of containing and delaying."

Widespread transmission

Prof Whitty said that the "reasonable worst case scenario" would be that two fifths of the UK population could get the virus:

"The absolute top end of the range would be about 80%. There might be people who get this infection without any symptoms at all. At this point - what I'd like to lay out - up to 80% who might get infected - the mortality rate appears to be 1%... But I expect it to be lower than that."

He added that he thinks there is already onward person to person transmission in the UK, "but it's not definite".
 
route46 said:
The death rate must be higher then 3%

Dividing 93455 known cases by 3198 deaths doesn't work ... more of the known cases might also die.

True death rate should be recoveries 50743 divided by deaths 3198.....over 6%
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I'm not sure I follow.

I really should be speed-studying for my Skype exam instead of trying to understand flawed reasoning, but I'm an idiot that way.
 
Uffa said:
I'm not sure I follow.

I really should be speed-studying for my Skype exam instead of trying to understand flawed reasoning, but I'm an idiot that way.
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They're just calculating the mortality rate of known outcome as can be seen here, the box labelled "Cases with outcome".
 
Gelsons Dad said:
It's up to 61 cases here in Switzerland with Zurich being the hub now everyones back from their skiing holidays!
No deaths yet, but everything is cancelled :-)
Ive been working from home for the last 10 days. Not productive!!!!
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Mrs Hef is off to a friends’ place in Bern at the weekend. I’m not aware of any restrictions but will check nearer the time
 
Uffa said:
Regarding face masks: even FFP2 (those used by medics) are only useful as long as you know how to use them correctly; for example they're only effective for a few hours, so wearing one all day long doesn't protect you. As for FFP1, they're useless against virus particles.
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Yes, and no.

FFP1 is I believe equivalent to N95, and that filters out 95% of particles larger than 0.3 mircons, whereas viruses like COVID-19 are perhaps half that size. But that doesn't mean it doesn't filter out any smaller particles. It depends upon the mask, but some are still good for up to 92%, others 50%.

Moreover, most of the virus you are likely to ingest will come either from (a) droplets of mucus from coughs and sneezes - which will be filtered even by FFP1 masks - and from touching your lips or nose with your infected fingers - which the mask will also prevent.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2003/04/do-surgical-masks-stop-sars.html

Net effect is if you go out and you use an FFP1 mask properly, you are about 50x less likely to get infected with Coronovirus, compared to using no mask at all. At £2 each, that doesn't sound like a terrible investment.

As to how long they last and reusability etc, yes in an ideal world you'd use only for a few hours and then throw away. However, even a used mask is better than none at all. This info came about with Ebola, when there were not enough masks to go around, and the advice was that if you only have a used mask, and not a fresh one, then use it. Be careful not to get contaminated from material on the outside of the mask, but using an old one is better than not using one at all.
 
Headline popped up on my phone last night that protective wear is running low, also hand sanitsier is now getting hard to come by.

We don't deal with crisis too well do we?
 
Bluemanc100 said:
I have a business trip planned to Rome to support a workshop installation from March 16th.. Not sure whether it's wise to go...
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Have their been any cases in Rome? 2 weeks is a long way away, I’d suggest that you see how the land lies nearer the time
 
TheRemainsOfTheDave said:
They're just calculating the mortality rate of known outcome as can be seen here, the box labelled "Cases with outcome".
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Yeah thanks, I didn't understand because of a typo in his post. Anyway, the CFR is still all over the place and varying between sources, as is written on that site. I wouldn't say it "must be higher than 3%".
 
Anyone with a spare hour might want to watch this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p059y0p1/contagion-the-bbc-four-pandemic

It was made in 2018 and modelled the effect of how a new virus might impact the UK. They modelled an R0 (transmission rate) of 1.8, which is probably lower than that for COVID-19. If you only have a few minutes, watch from 57:30. They assumed (randomly) it starting in Hazlemere.
 
Super David Silva 21 said:
Headline popped up on my phone last night that protective wear is running low, also hand sanitsier is now getting hard to come by.

We don't deal with crisis too well do we?
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I tried to buy some hand sanitiser last week ( we always have some, not a panic buy ) and there was none anywhere to be found.

sellers on amazon are price gouging like mad. last week it was £138 for a pack of 12 50ml ones.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
It's up to 61 cases here in Switzerland with Zurich being the hub now everyones back from their skiing holidays!
No deaths yet, but everything is cancelled :-)
Ive been working from home for the last 10 days. Not productive!!!!
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On the plus side, loads of time for wanking.
 
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