COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Chippy_boy]

For those outside the UK/not wanting to make an account, what is said at 57:30 onwards? Seen it mentioned a few times so it must be worth knowing.

It's remarkably insightful. It was made in 2018, looking at the possibility of a future pandemic. They developed an app which 10's of thousands of people downloaded and it enabled them to model very accurately how people move and interact on a national scale, and also how infected people might infect others. It's not specific to COVID-19 - which did not exist at the time obviously - but modelled other potential new "flu-like" viruses which might one day come from the far east.

The section from 57' 30" shows how the infections would spread across the UK, following an initial 1st case in (randomly chosen) Hazlemere. It showed 42m people being infected within the 1st 4 months. And 800,000 people dead.

And here's the scary thing - if that is not scary enough. They modelled an R0 (transmission rate) of 1.8. This is lower than COVID-19, which is somewhere between 2 and 3. And they modelled a death rate of 2%. Again, lower than what we have seen with COVID-19 so far. So it could be even worse than this, UNLESS drastic counter-measures are taken right now.

 

[inchy14]

The hysteria is unbelievable. On average 2,700 people die every day from malaria, that's fours times the global figures for coronavirus. The deaths have been amongst the elderly and those with existing health issues. We have elderly people battling through the "bug", comparing it to flu. Meanwhile the media is making money hand over fist with scaremongering gullible morons.

Oh dear

Wait til @SWP's back sees this post...... he's in for it then...

 

[BobKowalski]

It's remarkably insightful. It was made in 2018, looking at the possibility of a future pandemic. They developed an app which 10's of thousands of people downloaded and it enabled them to model very accurately how people move and interact on a national scale, and also how infected people might infect others. It's not specific to COVID-19 - which did not exist at the time obviously - but modelled other potential new "flu-like" viruses which might one day come from the far east.

The section from 57' 30" shows how the infections would spread across the UK, following an initial 1st case in (randomly chosen) Hazlemere. It showed 42m people being infected within the 1st 4 months. And 800,000 people dead.

And here's the scary thing - if that is not scary enough. They modelled an R0 (transmission rate) of 1.8. This is lower than COVID-19, which is somewhere between 2 and 3. And they modelled a death rate of 2%. Again, lower than what we have seen with COVID-19 so far. So it could be even worse than this, UNLESS drastic counter-measures are taken right now.

Christ on a bike. Thanks for posting the link.

 

[Nebuchadnezzar]

It's remarkably insightful. It was made in 2018, looking at the possibility of a future pandemic. They developed an app which 10's of thousands of people downloaded and it enabled them to model very accurately how people move and interact on a national scale, and also how infected people might infect others. It's not specific to COVID-19 - which did not exist at the time obviously - but modelled other potential new "flu-like" viruses which might one day come from the far east.

The section from 57' 30" shows how the infections would spread across the UK, following an initial 1st case in (randomly chosen) Hazlemere. It showed 42m people being infected within the 1st 4 months. And 800,000 people dead.

And here's the scary thing - if that is not scary enough. They modelled an R0 (transmission rate) of 1.8. This is lower than COVID-19, which is somewhere between 2 and 3. And they modelled a death rate of 2%. Again, lower than what we have seen with COVID-19 so far. So it could be even worse than this, UNLESS drastic counter-measures are taken right now.

Thanks for taking the time to explain it.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

It's remarkably insightful. It was made in 2018, looking at the possibility of a future pandemic. They developed an app which 10's of thousands of people downloaded and it enabled them to model very accurately how people move and interact on a national scale, and also how infected people might infect others. It's not specific to COVID-19 - which did not exist at the time obviously - but modelled other potential new "flu-like" viruses which might one day come from the far east.

The section from 57' 30" shows how the infections would spread across the UK, following an initial 1st case in (randomly chosen) Hazlemere. It showed 42m people being infected within the 1st 4 months. And 800,000 people dead.

And here's the scary thing - if that is not scary enough. They modelled an R0 (transmission rate) of 1.8. This is lower than COVID-19, which is somewhere between 2 and 3. And they modelled a death rate of 2%. Again, lower than what we have seen with COVID-19 so far. So it could be even worse than this, UNLESS drastic counter-measures are taken right now.

And incredibly, they used Haslemere as the starting point and that happens to be where the UK’s first case was from. Very eerie. Whether that makes the data more accurate than it otherwise would be I don’t know. I suppose the starting location would have a considerable effect on the rate of spread.

 

[Claytop]

Wait til @SWP's back sees this post...... he's in for it then...

He was one of them when this all started.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

To invoke Chernobyl.

Britain is the people sat on the bridge.

 

[Chippy_boy]

And incredibly, they used Haslemere as the starting point and that happens to be where the UK’s first case was from. Very eerie. Whether that makes the data more accurate than it otherwise would be I don’t know. I suppose the starting location would have a considerable effect on the rate of spread.

Not really. Unless it started in the Outer Hebrides or something equally daftly remote (which is very unlikely), then whether it starts in Hazlemere or the middle of London makes little diference. The numbers end up the same, but it might delay things by a week. Neither here nor there really.

The one crumb of comfort is this is what would happen, UNLESS significant changes are made - some trivial - like washing our hands very frequently - others more draconian, as we've seen in China. How China have managed to achieve such success is a bit of a mystery, but they have managed to get the rate of new infections right down from the perilously high levels they were at previously. So it is possible, there is "hope".

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

The Russians and Saudi’s are well out of order causing the oil price to drop 25% and causing carnage on already vulnerable markets. Wankers.

 

[inbetween]

Simply untrue. Karen on this very forum picked it up in the UK, so it is already spreading between our population. But it's a moot point. By Wednesday 400 or 500 hundred people in the UK will have it, and by the weekend, 1,000. Spreading across the UK is happening as we speak.

Oh yes of course it's spreading. By general population spread I mean on a scale across the whole population which would require a national central response.

At the moment what's happening is equivalent to several people catching it from abroad and spreading it to the people they know and then the people they know. Stopping that spread requires an almost microscopic level of response, IE, locking down travel to/from a single town may be enough to stop the spread.

If there are no cases in a region and if no-one travels in from an outbreak region then there is absolutely no point in worrying about it because it's otherwise impossible to catch it.

My girlfriends sister lives in northern Italy (Lake Garda) and she isn't at work but things are still quite normal because the risk is small. If she travelled to Lombardy or the Venice area then it'd be a different story...

Even in Wuhan at ground zero you have a population of 10 million but still only 5% of the population has caught it in a period of 3 months. You'd think that would accelerate but they've slowed it by restricting travel and exposure locally.