COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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meltonblue said:
I did find it slightly ridiculous to watch the games at the weekend where the players didn’t shake hands beforehand but then proceeded to do the mass hug after every goal and then some of them shook hands at the end anyway....
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They also did the double high five thing when a sub came on.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
It holds up to some.
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Agreed. But it should not be binary IMO. There's things that arguably we are right to hold off from doing just yet - like asking 66m to stay indoors, for example. I can see how that would not stick for protracted period.

But cancelling the Cheltenham festival this week? We've chosen to go ahead with it when cancelling the thing would have had no knock on effects in terms of reduced effectiveness later on. We've decided to go ahead with it, despite the health implications, purely for commercial reasons. Madness IMO.
 
Chippy_boy said:
But cancelling the Cheltenham festival this week? We've chosen to go ahead with it when cancelling the thing would have had no knock on effects in terms of reduced effectiveness later on. We've decided to go ahead with it, despite the health implications, purely for commercial reasons. Madness IMO.
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I understand where you're coming from, but the impact on the local economy would also be considered madness, at the current UK (and Ireland) numbers, so its weighing up degree's of "madness" that is an issue, and so its rather understandable that people aren't getting their heads round it all. Italy was here around 3 weeks ago, so we should be learning from that, but nobody seems to be doing.
 
squirtyflower said:
I’m surprised that someone with your medical background doesn’t understand the basic premise of reducing contacts in a contagion reduces risk.
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H
karen7 said:
But unless the players stay home seperately and their wifes don't work or the kids don't go to school then they are still at risk,i would be happy to have the season cancelled but that won't happen,football is essential to the clubs/broadcasters/FA/Prem etc so it will continue here,it is however a passtime for the fans so they would be better off not going,i am a case in point
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Have you been told you have corana virus kaz if so how did you get it?
 
Italy is a somewhat interesting case. Many recent infectious disease studies have highlighted the often much higher death rate, due to flu, in Italy, than most other places. They use an excess death figure and Italy is almost always at the top of it (in Europe anyway). There were over 70000 excess deaths from 2013-2017, which peaks in 14/15 (20000) and 16/17 (25000). One of the reasons that is given is the fragile, very old people, living in Italy. Whilst I’m not trying to downplay anything, it is interesting that Italy’s elderly population suffers in this way almost every year. I suppose a key question for the British government is; are delderly Italians dying with the virus or because of it?
 
cleavers said:
Thanks, I find some of the european data to be at best dubious, in fact I'd rate a number of countries data dubious.
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If such a vast amount of cases apparently have mild or no symptoms, and no country seems to have enough testing kits/facilities, then the numbers of those infected may be miles out. It may be that Italy is experiencing a death rate of 1% or less and has just grossly under-captured / underestimated the total number infected?
 
On #COVID2019, @BorisJohnson said:

“One of the theories is perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go & allow #coronvirus to move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures.”

Tricky_Trev said:
We are being sacrificed to preserve day to day business life. This is so fucked up. Good luck everyone, we’ll need to come together through hammering the message on social media as our government doesn’t want to do it.
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Did our fierce interrogator Schofield let him get away with that? I just hope Johnson hadn't heard that theory from Dominic Cummings. I mean, they've not disowned the eugenics comments, have they?
 
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Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
If such a vast amount of cases apparently have mild or no symptoms, and no country seems to have enough testing kits/facilities, then the numbers of those infected may be miles out. It may be that Italy is experiencing a death rate of 1% or less and has just grossly under-captured / underestimated the total number infected?
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It won't be, but it would most likely be lower, similarly here with people just not being tested unless considered severe by 111.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Italy is a somewhat interesting case. Many recent infectious disease studies have highlighted the often much higher death rate, due to flu, in Italy, than most other places. They use an excess death figure and Italy is almost always at the top of it (in Europe anyway). There were over 70000 excess deaths from 2013-2017, which peaks in 14/15 (20000) and 16/17 (25000). One of the reasons that is given is the fragile, very old people, living in Italy. Whilst I’m not trying to downplay anything, it is interesting that Italy’s elderly population suffers in this way almost every year. I suppose a key question for the British government is; are delderly Italians dying with the virus or because of it?
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the long-term studies will determine the long term causation, and what in particular it's provoking in elderly or people with underlying health conditions.

On the BBC article earlier there was talk that transmission from asymptomatic people might not be so strong:

Prof Jonathan Ball, an expert in molecular virology at the University of Nottingham, said the study confirmed that for the vast majority of cases, the incubation and therefore quarantine period for new coronavirus, will be up to 14 days.

And, encouragingly: "There is little if any evidence that people can routinely transmit virus during the asymptomatic period."
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51809318

and from this Chinese link back in Feb:

Rather, it appears that considerable transmission is occurring among close contacts. To date, 20 provinces outside of Hubei have reported 1183 case clusters, 88% of which contained 2 to 4 confirmed cases. Of note, 64% of clusters documented thus far have been within familial households (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention presentation made to the WHO Assessment Team on February 16, 2020). Thus, although COVID-19 seems to be more transmissible than SARS and MERS, and many estimates of the COVID-19 reproductive number (R0) have already been published, it is still too soon to develop an accurate R0 estimate or to assess the dynamics of transmission. More research is needed in this area as well.
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https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

I am of the view our response has been woeful, but perhaps, just perhaps, the cluster model has been further developed with updated figures and that is the method.

Or, as is my view, the more likely reason is financial gain over human pain, teamed with "if we only test cases presenting as serious enough to need hospitalisation, we keep the public calmer by low case rates being reported, we keep things ticking along and we take that view that the majority we refuse to test will only be mild". I think it's partially a tactic based on banking on 80/85% being ok. Thus, we see figures such as higher % of deaths, higher % needing hospitalisation because we're selectively testing.

Ultimately, I think it will mean more of us will get ill, and more of our family and friends will die, but I think the capitalist nature of our society means a certain level of deaths is seen as more tolerable than financial calamity and public disorder at rapidly rising case levels and restrictions on freedoms. Basically, they're trying to hoodwink us into accepting mild coronavirus for the majority and being infected to keep the ball rolling. Obviously, what we don't know is the long-term effects are, what a second or third strike will do or what's next to pop up.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
Is it likely that air travel could be banned and holidays cancelled etc.?
I have a trip in September and wondering whether this could be jeopardized.
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Yes. Were you really expecting a different answer?

It may be that airlines start offering insurance or contracts that say you will get your money back if you can't go otherwise no-one will be booking flights.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
If such a vast amount of cases apparently have mild or no symptoms, and no country seems to have enough testing kits/facilities, then the numbers of those infected may be miles out. It may be that Italy is experiencing a death rate of 1% or less and has just grossly under-captured / underestimated the total number infected?
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This post lacks apocalyptic hysteria. Please re-submit.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Agreed. But it should not be binary IMO. There's things that arguably we are right to hold off from doing just yet - like asking 66m to stay indoors, for example. I can see how that would not stick for protracted period.

But cancelling the Cheltenham festival this week? We've chosen to go ahead with it when cancelling the thing would have had no knock on effects in terms of reduced effectiveness later on. We've decided to go ahead with it, despite the health implications, purely for commercial reasons. Madness IMO.
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I agree, Cheltenham should be cancelled. Was only remarking about this on Sunday.
 
A lot of press running with ourselves, germany and france will probabbly follow iraly and lockdown with next two weeks.

Well why wait? Looks like they want to ride it ou ttill easter as people are already off work then anyway and schools closed to me.
 
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