COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Chippy_boy said:
Weird thing with the stats as well. We have 383 cases, but zero serious or critical. How does that work? How do you go from jolly hockey sticks to dead, whilst bypassing serious?

All evidence so far points to 80% mild, 15% serious - needing hospital treatment, oxygen perhaps and 5% critical - intensive care. Often, as in Italy, worse stats with more serious or critical. And yet we have none? Spain has 101 critical. France 86. Even Germany has 9. But we have none? Very odd.
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You are correct. There are things about this that simply don’t compute.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Weird thing with the stats as well. We have 383 cases, but zero serious or critical. How does that work? How do you go from jolly hockey sticks to dead, whilst bypassing serious?

All evidence so far points to 80% mild, 15% serious - needing hospital treatment, oxygen perhaps and 5% critical - intensive care. Often, as in Italy, worse stats with more serious or critical. And yet we have none? Spain has 101 critical. France 86. Even Germany has 9. But we have none? Very odd.
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I think we are simply a week or two behind. You are probably right re the figures, so you can probably multiply the critical figures by 20 to estimate a truer number of overall infected, and then assume a doubling of that figure every 3-4 days for a month or so until the virus peaks.
 
Uffa said:
Where did you get that mortality rate? By multypliying case numbers by 3 and then dividing deaths by them?
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No, it's 2 different calculations. Main difference is the dark figure.
Case numbers x3 is an assessment for true actual cases - but without dark figues!

The mortality rate (which will come out hindsight in 2 or 3 years time) has been assessed mainly from new data from China after WHO experts have been allowed to take random samples, plus general comparable rates from similar viruses.
Sorry, I can't give you more details at the moment.
 
They should suspend all non essential travel between countries until it is under control. It might sound drastic but Italy is already in lockdown the rest have to get onboard and get on top of this thing.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Weird thing with the stats as well. We have 383 cases, but zero serious or critical. How does that work? How do you go from jolly hockey sticks to dead, whilst bypassing serious?

All evidence so far points to 80% mild, 15% serious - needing hospital treatment, oxygen perhaps and 5% critical - intensive care. Often, as in Italy, worse stats with more serious or critical. And yet we have none? Spain has 101 critical. France 86. Even Germany has 9. But we have none? Very odd.
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TBH stats will drive you crazy,i wouldnt take much notice other than the rate of death versus those infected,even then when it gets bad you me everyone on here shuts shop and deals with your own personel circumstances, it has to be like that,something just niggles me we may get away lightly i hope im right
 
paulchapo said:
They should suspend all non essential travel between countries until it is under control. It might sound drastic but Italy is already in lockdown the rest have to get onboard and get on top of this thing.
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I think Cheltenham going ahead was a bad idea and expect the number of cases in Ireland to rocket in the next couple of weeks. Maybe similar in Britain.
Paddy’s Day celebrations have been cancelled over here thank God, but I fear we are ill prepared for what’s to come.
Experts estimating it could infect 60 % of the population on the island which would be around 3 million people which would require possibly 30,000 emergency beds and we current have around 200 down south.

We’re fucked if we cannot contain this. The economy alone will suffer hugely if we do take the necessary measures to contain this through businesses, schools universities closing.

They’re not painting a pleasant picture of the next month or so over here at the moment.
Hope it’s overkill.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Weird thing with the stats as well. We have 383 cases, but zero serious or critical. How does that work? How do you go from jolly hockey sticks to dead, whilst bypassing serious?

All evidence so far points to 80% mild, 15% serious - needing hospital treatment, oxygen perhaps and 5% critical - intensive care. Often, as in Italy, worse stats with more serious or critical. And yet we have none? Spain has 101 critical. France 86. Even Germany has 9. But we have none? Very odd.
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I expect the 6 that have died passed through serious and critical tbf
 
paulchapo said:
They should suspend all non essential travel between countries until it is under control. It might sound drastic but Italy is already in lockdown the rest have to get onboard and get on top of this thing.
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That exactly is the worry of German experts, as they can't assess how many cases came in from Italy.
If it were too many "The ship has sailed" for a controlled situation in Germany, he said, as a virologist.
That's why more drastic measures are taken from now on.
 
mancity2012_eamo said:
I think Cheltenham going ahead was a bad idea and expect the number of cases in Ireland to rocket in the next couple of weeks. Maybe similar in Britain.
Paddy’s Day celebrations have been cancelled over here thank God, but I fear we are ill prepared for what’s to come.
Experts estimating it could infect 60 % of the population on the island which would be around 3 million people which would require possibly 30,000 emergency beds and we current have around 200 down south.

We’re fucked if we cannot contain this. The economy alone will suffer hugely if we do take the necessary measures to contain this through businesses, schools universities closing.

They’re not painting a pleasant picture of the next month or so over here at the moment.
Hope it’s overkill.
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Why shut schools when kids don't seem to be affected by it? I know they can pick it up but that could still happen playing out etcetera.
 
St.Pauli support said:
That exactly is the worry of German experts, as they can't assess how many cases came in from Italy.
If it were too many "The ship has sailed" for a controlled situation in Germany, he said, as a virologist.
That's why more drastic measures are taken from now on.
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We just stop flights, ferries and shut the euro tunnel. Businesses will suffer but once it gets a grip no one will travel anyway. It seems we are just delaying the inevitable.
 
paulchapo said:
Why shut schools when kids don't seem to be affected by it? I know they can pick it up but that could still happen playing out etcetera.
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Hasn’t come to that yet. But there are discussions arising about it already.
We don’t even have a government at the moment and this has started to make the two main parties speed up talks. Cross party cooperation is urgently required.
 
mancity2012_eamo said:
Experts estimating it could infect 60 % of the population on the island which would be around 3 million people which would require possibly 30,000 emergency beds and we current have around 200 down south.
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60-70% could be the final infection rate after 2 or 3 years. That's not unusual.
We just have to stretch all the severe cases over a maximum time frame to prevent worst case.
 
paulchapo said:
We just stop flights, ferries and shut the euro tunnel. Businesses will suffer but once it gets a grip no one will travel anyway. It seems we are just delaying the inevitable.
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I think the govt plan is kicking the can down the road and denial until the Easter Hols give a large chunk of the population time off school/work so the economy can chug on.
 
mancity2012_eamo said:
Hasn’t come to that yet. But there are discussions arising about it already.
We don’t even have a government at the moment and this has started to make the two main parties speed up talks. Cross party cooperation is urgently required.
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Isn't Easter around the corner anyway, they may as well just bring forward the school shutdown early.
 
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