The death rate figures are based on confirmed cases not population number. If you want to take a stab at a realistic number then work out how many will have strong symptoms (they will be tested) and then take 2% of that value.
China has a population of over 1.2 billion. By your maths 144 million will die in China. Yesterday it was 17. So it will take another 23 thousand years for the rest to die.
Your numbers aren't scary. They are wrong.
I see you've stooped to just posting any old tripe.Sorry but that kind of common sense approach isn't allowed on here anymore. The fact that in the last three months a total of less than 5000 people across the world have sadly died from this virus compared to the 170,000 people who die of cancer every year and 30,000 extra people who will die of normal flu in the UK in a bad winter is to be completely ignored.
You should realise bleinsa that those figures are totally irrelevant as they just make the headlines much less scary than they should be.
You should realise that on this thread we must only look at the worst death rates available in the worst affected area and then extrapolate that worse case multiplier to the entire UK population.
Then to top that off we must also make sure that everyone knows, if they were in any doubt, that the NHS will simply not be able to cope as well as some tin pot health service in some developing country and only 500,000 of us will die. If we are lucky that is!!
We are all doomed I tell you doomed!
I'm sorry, you don't seem to have read what I posted.Again, the rate you quote is of confirmed cases. People who's symptoms are strong enough to merit testing. The vast majority of people with the virus have not been tested and are not included in the statistics.
the numbers from known cases ( using the current WHO figures ) are 3.6% dead, the 1% the uk gov quotes comes from the London school of medicine's modeling trying to model unknown cases into the mix.
However the WHO are using 3.6% as when they went looking for the iceberg in China, looking for the "unknown" cases they didn't find it.
this should be applying too all flights
Again, the rate you quote is of confirmed cases. People who's symptoms are strong enough to merit testing. The vast majority of people with the virus have not been tested and are not included in the statistics.
In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population.
Sorry but that aint true.On average 17000 die each year in the UK from Flu, thats 46 a day.
No it shouldn't
How am i being selfish and why am i being selfish?
I am self employed and work from home. Are you suggesting i just dont go out, even though i am symptom free or that everyone in the UK should lock the front door and stop contact with the outside world?
Why shouldn't I be able to fly?yes it should.
Which is why only 1% might die. 99% won't. (Assuming we can save 4 people out of 5 who need intensive care and that we have ICU beds, or more than 4 of them will die).They are numbers taken from a demographic that are at far greater risk of death and that is the important point here being missed.
The mortality rate does not apply equally to all in this instance because for the vast majority of the worlds population it simply is not a lethal virus.
8200 deaths this year.You got a source for that?
I'm sure the Chancellor is taking unprecedented measure for the fun of it
Why shouldn't I be able to fly?
No it's not, answer the question.so its for selfish purposes you don't want flights banned.
I'm sorry, you don't seem to have read what I posted.
The 1% aspiration takes account of the fact that people are not included in the stats. We are assuming that there are 3x more people out there infected but not known to us. Otherwise its 3.4% according the WHO. (Running at 3.6% actually).