COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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SebastianBlue said:
Here are a few guidance documents from the Points of Entry and Mass Gathering page on WHO’s COVID-19 Technical Resources website, with passage quoted based on your request. There are many, many elements of those officials guidance documents that could contradict the current government’s assessment — and some that could support it. That is one of the reasons I was saying it depends on which experts you were referring to.

You are right that their general guidance is that it is unnecessary to cancel *all* mass gathering, but that does not mean that *all* mass gatherings are necessary or allowing them to continue based on certain phase of an outbreak would be part of an optimal response strategy focused on containment and/or delay of transmission. It also does not take in to account calculation of overall risk, which is addressed more fully in Chapters 1 and 7 in the Public Health for Mass Gathering: Key Considerations guidance document.

I would have to find direct quotes from WHO and CDC officials that have appeared to contradict the current assessment of the current relative risk based on our government’s stated goal (because we aren’t talking about some abstract guidance on mass gatherings for any sort of outbreak, we are discussing it specifically in the context of recent guidance for COVID-19). Again, our discussion is in the context of now, as things stand, not some time prior to now or some abstract scenario apart from the current situation. But I do recall reading a few that would appear to oppose the assessments of relative risk. I apologise for not being able to present them immediately upon request.

Key planning recommendations for Mass Gatherings in the context of the current COVID-19 outbreak
https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1269109/retrieve



Public Health for Mass Gathering: Key Considerations
https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/717805/retrieve
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@domalino here is a quote (and source link) from one expert, the Director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, that was standing prominently in my mind as we discussed the government’s stance on transmission risk of sporting event associated public behaviour. He is obviously referring to US sporting events, and it is not a direct remark about today’s announcement, but it is an example of experts from other countries offering a different risk assessment to ours. We can obviously argue over whether he would make the same assessment specifically for the UK, but I would say, having experienced sporting event associated public behaviour extensively in both countries, it is unlikely he would judge the risk for transmission as lower in the UK versus the US, especially when you consider more people use individual transportation methods to attend sporting events in the US (reducing associated transit transmission risk).

Sports Leagues Bar Fans and Cancel Games Amid Coronavirus Outbreak

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/sports/basketball/warriors-coronavirus-fans.html

While many events in different industries have been canceled or changed because of the health crisis, attention sharply shifted to the sports world on Wednesday after Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, put the sports leagues on notice in an appearance before lawmakers.

“We would recommend that there not be large crowds,” Dr. Fauci said. “If that means not having any people in the audience when the N.B.A. plays, so be it. But as a public health official, anything that has large crowds is something that would give a risk to spread.”
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Qatar’s closed all gyms, cinemas, play areas and wedding venues as of 15 minutes ago.

Time to get fat it is then.
 
Ban-jani said:
The thinking is many more are infected than known and therefore it’s a lot lower.
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Which is likely true. But the ways some are trying to estimate that lower mortality rate are dubious at best (you can’t take the estimated actual cases and use them to adjust down the CFR, and so on).

It is a positive, though, and we will hopefully eventually see much lower estimated mortality rates as this outbreak cycle completes.
 
SebastianBlue said:
Which is likely true. But the ways some are trying to estimate that lower mortality rate are dubious at best (you can’t take the estimated actual cases and use them to adjust down the CFR, and so on).

It is a positive, though, and we will hopefully eventually see much lower estimated mortality rates as this outbreak cycle completes.
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I’d like to see the demographics of the UK’s confirmed cases and see how many are older.
 
Ban-jani said:
The thinking is many more are infected than known and therefore it’s a lot lower.
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Absolutely - nearly everyone who has been to Italy seems to have brought it back with them. Thousands more must have it over there.
 
I work in Amsterdam for a French company, they’ve taken proper steps. I have to work from home for a minimum 2 months. It’s good they’re thinking that way, but I’m going to be bored out of my mind!
 
Today work informed us that if we have to self isolate then it will have to be "unpaid leave". Now I thought Boris guaranteed we would get paid. If I am not getting paid I am afraid I am out spreading it.
 
SWP's back said:
I’d like to see the demographics of the UK’s confirmed cases and see how many are older.
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As would I — I’ve been searching for an demographic breakdown by country but haven’t found anything even remotely reliable.
 
I was reading the medical literature today about coronavirus and came across a paper by yao et al, 2020 who have just published a study that suggests that an existing anti-arthritis / anti-malarial treatment (Hydroxychloroquine) maybe effective against coronavirus. The paper is titled In Vitro Antiviral Activity and Projection of Optimized Dosing Design of Hydroxychloroquine for the Treatment of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). I know it relates to another coronavirus but I have seen comments that it maybe effective against Covid19.

Something to think about if you are an arthritis sufferer or your parents are but you'd have to go through your GP as this is not available over the counter.

It is not a vaccine but this paper suggests it maybe of use as an anti-viral treatment. Note though that this is a test-tube study and not a human trial however we already know the drug has been deemed safe for arthritis patients (subject to some side effects which maybe important for some people).

I post this hoping you will treat the information with caution, but interest. So far much of the news about Covid19 has been how a vaccine is 12 months away, but there are anti-viral treatments that I have heard are being used.
 
Super David Silva 21 said:
I'm still at work but getting snippets of what's coming out.

Government chief scientific adviser Vallance: "On average 1 person infects 2/3 others .. you have a very low probability of infecting a large number of people in a stadium"

Huh??
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Unless a steward who does searches has it either before they get there or off a fan & then hundreds of us will get it.
 
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