COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Just spoke to my surgery about putting repeat perscriptions in for those not going out and she has given me the email for the surgery and do it that way
You have to ring your own surgery and get their email
This is brilliant,get on it
 
domalino said:
The problem is they didn't link the two, they ignored 99% of the answer and only focused on 2 words.

Also if you can't see how telling anyone with any symptoms whatsoever to isolate for 2 weeks is not something to reduce the peak then I don't know what to tell you, you're being wilfully ignorant.
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That’s being rather charitable, Dom, as the mere reference to herd immunity in the context of the statement was woefully inaccurate to what they were apparently attempting to achieve (I am assuming it was in fact bad communication and not that they have since changed the focus due to the backlash). ‘Herd immunity’ is a deep, sweeping principle that does not even remotely mean what the spokesman was intending (if the government follow up is to be believed) and I don’t think the resulting scrutiny and criticism (of both the application of the principle and the bumbling communication of their plan) is misplaced. The actual meaning, and large elements of their plan, would not have been formally clarified for public consumption without that criticism, so it served a very important purpose.

But, as I write this, I realise we are again going well in to the political realm and we should take further discussion to the COVID-19: Political Discussion Thread.

https://forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk/threads/covid-19-political-discussion-thread.345088/
 
karen7 said:
Just spoke to my surgery about putting repeat perscriptions in for those not going out and she has given me the email for the surgery and do it that way
You have to ring your own surgery and get their email
This is brilliant,get on it
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Think most pharmacies do it on line now ? Been doing mine for the last few years, hope you’re feeling better x
 
BosnianBlue said:
You guys have really serous problem with alcohol in UK. That is one thing the UK should focus on when this shit is finished.

Spanish police is a joke though. No masks, no gloves, talking with drunk half naked 50 years olds at 20 cm distance. Total joke.
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You’re right.
They should get the water cannons out.
 
domalino said:
The problem is they didn't link the two, they ignored 99% of the answer and only focused on 2 words.

Also if you can't see how telling anyone with any symptoms whatsoever to isolate for 2 weeks is not something to reduce the peak then I don't know what to tell you, you're being wilfully ignorant.
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That quote you gave - same sentence, so linked, however inadvertently. No clear mention of a radically different timeframe. No clarification published despite immediate reporting indicating that the media understanding was other than what might be intended.

I do not consider advice to be action - no enforcement, not practical for some population. Woolly, and doesn't butter parsnips. Blocking major events/gatherings would have been action, but they didn't. They didn't even ban foreign school trips from what I heard, they merely advised about them!

And you're down to being insulting, wilfully. That always works well here.

Edit: see later note to @SebastianBlue.
 
SebastianBlue said:
That’s being rather charitable, Dom, as the mere reference to herd immunity in the context of the statement was woefully inaccurate to what they were apparently attempting to achieve (I am assuming it was in fact bad communication and not that they have since changed the focus due to the backlash). ‘Herd immunity’ is a deep, sweeping principle that does not even remotely mean what the spokesman was intending (if the government follow up is to be believed) and I don’t think the resulting scrutiny and criticism (of both the application of the principle and the bumbling communication of their plan) is misplaced. The actual meaning, and large elements of their plan, would not have been formally clarified for public consumption without that criticism, so it served a very important purpose.

But, as I write this, I realise we are again going well in to the political realm and we should take further discussion to the COVID-19: Political Discussion Thread.

https://forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk/threads/covid-19-political-discussion-thread.345088/
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More thoughtful than mine, but similar point, I think.

I note the thread suggestion, and will drop further exchange (at least for now).
 
SebastianBlue said:
I agree with the problems with attempting to build herd immunity in the context of this outbreak that you have listed (I have previously expounded on them) but establishing herd immunity without vaccination usually *does* take years in a ‘normal’, large, isolated population with no pathogen mutation. I think @BobKowalski was making the point that it was never going to be a viable strategy in of itself, even leaving out the very real issues you, I, and many more learned experts have outlined.

Whether the government intends or intended for it to be the main plank in their plan is up for debate — they seem to be a bit inconsistent with their messaging regarding that since the initial day of response escalation when it was referenced.

It may have just been bad communication which lead to misunderstanding (as it’s not just us on here that thought establishing herd immunity was a main element of the response based on their words) or it could be it was the greater thrust but they are now walking it back due to the backlash.

We’ll probably never *really* know.

But it is safe to say if it was ever the primary element of the response, the general scientific consensus (excluding apparently a few groups advising the government) is that it is a very risky and problematic plan.
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It seems it is more bad communication than anything else. Herd immunity, with 60% infected, is not the goal it’s just an inevitable consequence which is line with every other European Govt. Our slightly different approach does appear to be rooted in behavioural science ie we can’t be trusted to follow restrictive rules for an extended period - it’s like no one has heard of the French. Not sure I buy this as we have to a large extent self adopted restrictive practices but that is the thinking driving our approach. Why we allowed ‘herd immunity’ to dominate the news for the last week is just down to bad news management or perhaps people thought it sounded more scientific or better than saying the British public can’t be trusted.
 
i kne albert davy said:
Alas I've got the bloody thing apparently going into 6th day never had anything like it in my life first 2 night all bedding had to be changed soaked through, already cost me around £1500 in wages fortunately I can stand it at least for a while no SSP for me and looking into claiming ESA do me a favour face to face interview well they will be welcome. What you get for working in the North East with the council loads of them have it allegedly even the bloody MP. I seem to be getting over it still red hot and a cough from hell.
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When you get about a week it starts to ease off,the cough continues though,hang on in there lovely
 
George Hannah said:
I hope I haven't done so, be grateful if you could point out where
Thanks, I am also looking forward to seeing our modelling data which is due to be published today after the CHA briefing.
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I am, as well, for obvious reasons.

But, I believe it will only be recent modelling outcomes based on recent relevant data universes — I have not seen anything about them opening access to the models themselves, although one of the heads of the several modelling groups did link to several explainer papers (but they were relatively outdated, with the most recent being from 2017 and describing a pandemic influenza model which is informing some of their current modelling).

I would still love to be able to scrutinise and manipulate the underlying models being used to advise the government. While I understand some of the concerns with making them available (amateur manipulation that could lead to inaccurate projections being shared, as well as exposing the risk thresholds and confidence levels inherent to the models, which nearly always makes non-scientists/analysts very nervous), I still think transparency in this situation would go some way to improving public trust and confidence in the government’s response.
 
domalino said:
The dotted line is the capacity of the healthcare system to treat people best.

Flattening the curve is making the pandemic last longer but have fewer people infected at once.

If you go over the dotted line, thats when a lot of people die, because there's not enough doctors/beds/ventilators to treat people above that line.

Here's an article - https://www.sciencealert.com/dragging-out-the-coronavirus-epidemic-is-important-in-saving-lives
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Thanks mate
 
My University (York) have just announced that all teaching and all exams will move online for the remainder of the year (we have just finished term). Everything is up in limbo at the moment, as we have just come off the back of 4 weeks strike.
 
SebastianBlue said:
I am, as well, for obvious reasons.

But, I believe it will only be recent modelling outcomes based on recent relevant data universes — I have not seen anything about them opening access to the models themselves, although one of the heads of the several modelling groups did link to several explainer papers (but they were relatively outdated, with the most recent being from 2017 and describing a pandemic influenza model which is informing some of their current modelling).

I would still love to be able to scrutinise and manipulate the underlying models being used to advise the government. While I understand some of the concerns with making them available (amateur manipulation that could lead to inaccurate projections being shared, as well as exposing the risk thresholds and confidence levels inherent to the models, which nearly always makes non-scientists/analysts very nervous), I still think transparency in this situation would go some way to improving public trust and confidence in the government’s response.
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Not so sure myself, as a lot of people just don't have the ability to interpret simple data let alone complex analysis, and it tends to be the loudest voices that get heard not the most intelligent. That's not safe in this day and age.
 
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