COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Bollox,I am in the high risk category so in house for next 12 weeks, @karen7 I think a lot of people on bluemoon will be gunning for your post record over the next few months !!!!!!
 
Terrible though the Italy figures are, there is some small ray of hope in them. The numbers of deaths is a good indicator, since it's very accurate, not open to interpretation and we're not relying on extrapolations of how many people may or may not have been infected and not tested, or anything like that. It's a cold, hard, measurable stat.

Anyway, here's the data:



If this was pure exponential growth, you'd expect to see a horizontal line, say +25% more deaths per day. That would be exponential growth. if the trend is downwards, that is good news and would seem to imply that things are slowing down... or at least not accelerating as fast as you'd expect. There's not many data points yet, but there would seem to be a declining trend. And very hard to extrapolate, but again, it might imply that sometime in the next couple of weeks or so, the Italy daily deaths may start to fall.
 
abu13 said:
Can anyone explain to me why Eldris Elba testing positive warrants it being on the Sky news breaking news banner?
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I guess it's a wakeup call to people if a young, strong, rich person can have it and not have any symptoms it shows people that everyone needs to be careful? It's a stretch
 
sir baconface said:
Because, like many other people, I do things more willingly when asked rather than being told.
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Very mature, so pretty pretty please will you follow advice to help your community to reduce cases and stop people dying if it’s not to much trouble.

Ps would you like a shoe shine while I’m here.
 
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/...d-immunity-boris-johnson-government-plan-cure

This is an excellent article by Philip Ball, one of the best science writers around. It covers most of the discussions we have had on here: scientific consensus and dissensus on the epidemic, the complexity of the problem, the letter from 200 scientists, etc.

While, therefore, we can be dismayed at the angry row that is raging among scientists about how best to tackle the coronavirus, we shouldn’t be surprised. This is an immensely difficult question, and prediction is inherently uncertain, not only because of gaps in our biological understanding of the virus and its effects but also because so much depends on the vagaries of human behaviour: how we respond to advice, nudges and directives, and for how long.And we shouldn’t doubt for a moment both that the government’s senior advisers—the chief medical officer Chris Whitty, himself a specialist in the epidemiology of infectious disease, and the chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance—are both hugely experienced and knowledgeable, and will be giving the advice that they think is most likely to minimise the worst impacts of the pandemic in the UK. It is perilously easy, particularly if you don’t like this government (full disclosure: I do not) to want to believe conspiracy theories or cynical interpretations of their choices. But so far Boris Johnson seems to be deferring to his top scientists and not engaging in political brinkmanship.
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What is most alarming is that even some very basic matters are provoking argument among experts.
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Some of the disagreements among experts have arisen because no one is an expert in every aspect of this problem. The British Society for Immunology has released an open letter, signed by its president Arne Akbar of University College London, saying that we don’t know enough about immunity to the coronavirus anyway, so the government should be focusing on containment. “For example, we don’t yet know if this novel virus will induce long-term immunity in those affected as other related viruses do not,” the letter says. “Therefore, it would be prudent to prevent infection in the first place.”
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And more than 200 scientists have signed an open letter expressing deep concern about the UK approach. “By putting in place social distancing measures now, the growth can be slowed down dramatically, and thousands of lives can be spared,” they say. “We consider the social distancing measures taken as of today as insufficient, and we believe that additional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately, as it is already happening in other countries across the world.”

In response, one researcher who has worked on global health issues related to viruses such as hepatitis A virus dismissed the letter, saying she had never heard of any of the signatories. But this is because they come largely from the community that studies complex systems, including the mathematics of spreading on social networks (among them are Steven Strogatz of Cornell and Albert-Laszlo Barabasi of Northeastern University, world leaders in this field). Both of these communities have important perspectives on an issue like this, so it is shocking and alarming to see that they apparently do not know each other but are instead working within academic siloes. That has to change, as soon as possible.
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scousemanc said:
We will only know that in time. What is true is that Chinese are getting back to work so will be interesting to keep an eye on the data
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There are two alternatives to PHE strategy:

WHO and Test Test Test forensically as used by South Korea
Social Distancing war as employed by China

I think it will if unchecked by China bounce back, but of course with any sign of a bounce back they'll go in and test like mad, and track and trace the life out of it. That is what the UK should have done but didn't (or didn't do enough of).

They want to extend the lifetime of the epidemic, build immunity and at the same time reduce the peak and protect the most at risk. That sounds OK but the generals have other war strategies and when I compare China's curve and South Korea's curve to the projection that PHE are mapping out for the UK, and the rest of the world, it's shocking.
 
I’ve just walked through Altrincham town centre after work and every pub was busy and the gym was too.

People don’t give a shit about being given advice. If they get some time off work, they’re going to the pub!
 
I think maybe Boris or the team making the decisions hes fronting are initially reluctant to enforce bans, unlike other countries,

is that they probably dont have the resources to actually enforce a ban,for a lengthy period. In addition, if % of population were

to protest against a ban then you have issues with mass gatherings etc. Finally, protests would again apply additional pressure

to limited frontline resources, eg A&E. If they suggest and high majority accede to, of their own volition, then jobs done for them.

I believe they are aware of an impending catastrophy which due to lack of required essentials, no vaccine, poor % icu beds and

critically lack of ventilators and or oxygen that theres, in reality, not a lot they can change positively in required timeline, til more

equipment & much later a vaccine becomes available. As theres not enough kit, its merely a sticky plaster, til we get a vaccine.

Even when we get the vaccine we'll still need the kit. This event will undoubtedly revise governments policy for the future, whoever

is in charge, that the country needs resourced better, within a similar but better funded system or within a radically new system.....
 
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