COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Saddleworth2]

Anyone could see this was coming. Anyone applying their mind purposefully to the situation would know we would need more ventilators. Absolutely criminal that we’re begging for them at this stage. Incredible, actually.

We have had about 10 weeks to increase capacity. Long enough to at least have a cogent plan that shows what is possible and when. It feels like we have done little until the last couple of weeks. More importantly the NHS should/will have had a 'disaster' plan covering such an outbreak that could have been kicked into action early this year. In any crisis, you need the best bloody crisis manager you can get your hands on. For this I would have thought there would be a team of them running round the clock. I wonder who is leading this behind the scenes.

 

[DRINKLEVEDRY]

Yes. Whatever the arguments about models, numbers and other stuff, this appeared to be incredibly slack practice.

660-odd Brits due to arrive soon from the stricken cruise liner. I wonder what measures will be taken in their case?

Exactly bacon I've seen queue's miles long in America of people being tested as they land what's happening in England are we just gonna get off the planes as normal because we've been told they want everyone of the canaries over the weekend you would think something had been put in place I've been getting all my info off here and thanks so much to everybody.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

I know this is probably a daft question, but I wonder how planet earth is finding this situation. Less traffic, commerce, factories pumping out pollution worldwide?

Mother Earth is probably loving it and fair play to her, we’ve done her too much damage so it’s about time she had a bit of respite.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

Probably posted already, but very interesting.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

[Marvin]

Asympotomatic Covid19.

This guy did it perfectly but why is this not being picked up by contact tracing. We can't do this if the policy is to self-isolate at home for 7 days and not to contact 111. Their needs to be follow-up of every illness with testing. See WHO policy and SOuth Korea. It will work.

They need to have a way of testing everyone who thinks they have it and then trace them. This is really really basic but would make a huge difference. Get medical students on it.

 

[Georgian Maestro]

Noticeably quieter on the tram from Timperley this morning. People seem to be heeding the advice

 

[Tim of the Oak]

They’ll argue they’ve adapted to new data I assume, obviously others will say that they had it wrong all along.

At least we’re hopefully on the right path now even if it still not going to be easy.

it’s pretty clear that the Guardian were either to keen to believe what they wanted to hear or they lied.

There is enough that the Government got wrong with the lack of ventilators and PPE equipment without the Guardian’s fake news.

 

[domalino]

I get the feeling they are masking their insufficiency behind “it’s now the right time to do this”. They are just reacting to the mounting criticism and then saying it was all part of the plan to have waited until this point to do measure x.

The only way you can think that is if you didn't listen to them last week, when they said they would be announcing all of these measures shortly.

 

[Chippy_boy]

They were based on a two year period AND having 8x the ICU capacity we currently have.

As such, it’s very much a low balled number.

Correct. The models predicted 14,000 people per day (22 per 100,000 of population) dying at the peak in May/June.

 

[cibaman]

UK has one of the worst death percentage. Only China, italy and iran have more. Spain is about leveled. And deaths trend is not great at all, if it continues like this, it might leave only italy in front.

Latest estimate is that 35-50,000 have the virus in the uk. Death percentages are meaningless without knowing how many have the virus. Doubling every four days

 

[Tricky_Trev]

The only way you can think that is if you didn't listen to them last week, when they said they would be announcing all of these measures shortly.

Couldn’t disagree more. They only received the stark forecast yesterday (one that seemed obvious to most) and had to introduce new measures to the tune of “it’s now the right time”. It’s reactionary, not proactive. Last week the message was that it would come in weeks. I don’t think waiting 4 days signified any form of strategy. What is 4 days? The right time was ages ago but they are making it sound like this was planned. A 4 day interval from saying no need for draconian measures to then suddenly needing them is a panicked admission that they were wrong.

 

[cibaman]

I know this is probably a daft question, but I wonder how planet earth is finding this situation. Less traffic, commerce, factories pumping out pollution worldwide?

The Times has satellite images of Europe comparing nitrogen levels in January and now. There’s a significant improvement, especially over northern Italy which in January had the worst air pollution

 

[domalino]

Couldn’t disagree more. They only received the stark forecast yesterday (one that seemed obvious to most) and had to introduce new measures to the tune of “it’s now the right time”. It’s reactionary, not proactive. Last week the message was that it would come in weeks. I don’t think waiting 4 days signified any form of strategy. What is 4 days? The right time was ages ago but they are making it sound like this was planned. A 4 day interval from saying no need for draconian measures to then suddenly needing them is a panicked admission that they were wrong.

They haven't introduced new measures they weren't planning on doing before, they've only brought them forward.

Again, you clearly didn't pay attention last week when they said household isolation, banning mass gatherings and isolating over 70s was all likely to come in soon. You'll probably say they've changed strategy again when they close the schools, despite them saying it's likely to happen in the future.

Also you need to go and read the ICL study. If you do, you'll see that bringing everything in straight away is a) Not viable and b) doesn't actually have the best effect.

 

[alexmcity]

Summary of the ICL study:

 

[domalino]

Correct. The models predicted 14,000 people per day (22 per 100,000 of population) dying at the peak in May/June.

You will be interested in seeing this part of the ICL study Chippy -

Stopping mass gatherings is predicted to have relatively little impact (results not shown) because the contact-time at such events is relatively small compared to the time spent at home, in schools or workplaces and in other community locations such as bars and restaurants.​

 

[BobKowalski]

Marvin, the government was never following the "classic 1918 flu approach of mitigation". They were always bringing in these measures, they've just brought them in sooner.

They never had the strategy of building immunity, outside the fact that they didn't want complete and total suppression, which the ICL study says will not work long term.

By the way for everyone who

It’s ok to say the experts got the initial modelling wrong and we have now switched to suppression rather than mitigation. The modelling guys held a press conference yesterday and said as such. What essentially changed was modelling from a generic virus to modelling based on this specific virus with data from Italy and from our own ICU patients.

This overnight change explains why the Govt was flat footed yesterday on the measures needed for suppression, specifically the economic measures taken in France and elsewhere in Europe. They were heading to suppression sooner they we were and had more time to prepare. I presume we will announce similar measures today.

 

[alexmcity]

It’s ok to say the experts got the initial modelling wrong.

The problem might go deeper.

 

[give it to gordon]

I work outside, but next week I am booked on a course which will mean I am in a classroom with about 20 people for a whole week for 7 hrs aday... plus I have never met. My missus is a diabetic and in the 'at risk' group. I have told my line manager that I dont think it would be wise for me to attend, as government are saying dont socialise etc. Well to me being around 20 people is socialising and is not part of my normal work. I was hoping my boss would take us of the course but he isnt really interested in our health.

 

[Ban-jani]

Based off everything I've read both in here and online, it seems like we're absolutely fucked either we approach this, aren't we?

Pretty much.

It’s lockdown now, destroy the economy, loads of people die and get ill, with the risk that it all happens again once the lockdown ends.

Or... don’t fully lockdown yet, the economy is almost completely fucked, more people get ill and die initially but it might mean less do in the 2nd wave. When we eventually do fully lockdown, the economy is fucked.

That’s our two options.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

I work outside, but next week I am booked on a course which will mean I am in a classroom with about 20 people for a whole week for 7 hrs aday... plus I have never met. My missus is a diabetic and in the 'at risk' group. I have told my line manager that I dont think it would be wise for me to attend, as government are saying dont socialise etc. Well to me being around 20 people is socialising and is not part of my normal work. I was hoping my boss would take us of the course but he isnt really interested in our health.

This is why the government politely asking is the wrong approach. Many people will ignore it and unfortunately many of those people will be line managers. They needed more oomph behind the message, with consequences for non-compliance. At the moment the only consequence is increased risk to health, but that’s not significant enough for millions in this country it seems.