COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[AlgarveBlu]

Don’t forget I’m talking about the markers and they usually run some 3-9 months ahead of the economy. The markets will pick up before we exit a recession as they’re based on future profits and dividends (as well as touchy-feeling crap such as sentiment). I think the economy is in for a tough couple of years but it seems as though we aren’t going to go through the austerity route this time. Bring on Keynes.

The main problem for me is uncertainty which we know the markets detest above all. The uncertainty we are experiencing now is for the first time I can recall not directly due to macro economic/corporate/government events (a systematic shut down of supply and demand) , so the 2008 policy for example by central banks won't work here as we don't have balance sheet issues that we are looking to repairing, fiscal policy can realistically only be run for a limited amount of months before blowing up public finances. This virus leaves all investors and financial institutions looking at so many unknown factors; duration of lockdown, amount of lockdowns going forward for future 2nd waves, confirmation of a vaccine, duration of vaccine implementation, consistency of every governments policy/timing on responses and actions taken ( travel/goods restrictions will remain even if one group of countries gets its shit together whilst others are on different pages through fear of re-infection) and has anyone got any idea what Phase 2 is after lockdown?

Investors have no historic data to draw upon (1918 pandemic data has no real value) and any projected modelling on the future impacts of companies, employment and economic activity are fairly pointless at this stage as there are too many x's in the equations to give any useful results back. Safe haven assets is where its at and where it will be until we get the scientific data we need back to get that visibility we need. 2 months ago the world was split as to whether this was the flu or a novel virus with far deadlier capabilities, its taken that long for everyone to get on the same page on that one issue...does not bode well for collective policy decision moving forward to eradicate this virus.

Realised I'm on the wrong thread so will stop and go take my medication now and batter the kids on FIFA

 

[antspider]

What happens if you get “the text message” to stay at home ,but you work on a construction site?

 

[kaz7]

The health secretary has announced plans for a 250,000-strong volunteer force to help the NHS deal with the UK's coronavirus outbreak.

"We are seeking a quarter of a million volunteers, people in good health to help the NHS, for shopping, for the delivery of medicines and to support those who are shielding to protect their own health," Matt Hancock told the government's daily COVID-19 news conference

And the health secretary revealed that a total of 11,788 have responded to this, including 2,660 doctors, more than 2,500 pharmacists and other staff and 6,147 nurses

"I pay tribute to each and every one of those who is returning to the NHS at its hour of need," Mr Hancock said.

Meanwhile, some 5,500 final-year medics and 18,700 final-year student nurses will "move to the frontline" next week

Thank fuck for the NHS,i don't ever want to have to argue about it's value again,the people that work in it are amazing,selfless people,those who were in favour of selling it off think again

 

[BlueHammer85]

What happens if you get “the text message” to stay at home ,but you work on a construction site?

stay at home.

 

[meltonblue]

what is that based on?? There’s pretty much nothing to go off, other then China who are clearly lying about figures.

and Even if it does go down in the next few weeks it could easily go back up again during winter

It's based on, like I said, if the italy figures continue to show the rate of new cases are reducing and basic maths...

Yes it could go back up with a second wave, I was only talking about the current trend.

 

[bluemoon32]

What happens if you get “the text message” to stay at home ,but you work on a construction site?

Go to work unless you can afford not to or if you'll be paid anyway, stay home

 

[beast]

I have real doubts about the Governments underlying conditions line, As far as I know there has not been 1 death associated to a previously fit and healthy person. In Italy they have doctors an nurses dying from this virus.
After 400+ deaths and an age range of 18 to 100+ I just find it hard to accept.

Yeah, that's really fishy, what ever your choice of media outlet, that's the one line peddled out, every single time!
Sounds like some kind of get out clause implemented by the powers that be.

 

[kaz7]

I have real doubts about the Governments underlying conditions line, As far as I know there has not been 1 death associated to a previously fit and healthy person. In Italy they have doctors an nurses dying from this virus.
After 400+ deaths and an age range of 18 to 100+ I just find it hard to accept.

There are healthy drs and nurses on life support here and in italy,i do agree that the underlying conditions line is handy to control panic,they could and probably are counting illnesses that don't contribute to dying from the virus

 

[antspider]

stay at home.

My son who works on site has said that on the news you should still go in

 

[Ardwick Green Blue]

Because they were one of the first European countries to be infected so they are ahead of other countries. That's the main reason. We will be where they are soon.

Everything you see is a smooth curve, which is just translated by a horizontal displacement between various countries according to time. So what you see in Italy now you will see in England soon.

There is one proviso. In the equation that describes the curve there is a factor relating to the transmission rate.

That can be lowered by two main ways: testing to weed out the infected person from society and hence transmission and social distancing which reduces transmission.

I can't see that we have done too much different to Italy in that regard. The nations that survived put through social distancing and testing, and did it a lot more effectively than our government - partly because they were prepared by SARS. Partly though its because we evaluated the disease incorrectly and pursued the wrong strategy until it was almost too late. It's still not clear whether we are trying to suppress this completely or trying to micro manage the transmission rate.

Italy did a number of things wrong (disasterously so) early on in the outbreak. They allowed the virus to expand across Lombardy & elsewhere without realising it was present, various hospitals then exacerbated the problem and they initially fucked up the lockdown by allowing people to leave the zone before making it nationwide. Hopefully they are on the cusp of getting on top of it now.

With luck we haven't fucked up so badly with our measures to date.