COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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jay_mcfc said:
I don't think it will change the peak but it will mean that % of deaths would be a lot lower than previously thought. Imagine if worldwide the death rate was even 1% rather than 3.5%.
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It would also mean that after we've had our lockdown and come out the other side, there would be much less chance of it flaring up again since most of us will have had it. Herd immunity back on the table again.

This would also explain why the numbers are not shooting up in Hubei even though they are getting back to normal.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
don't shoot the messenger mate. I was but i'm down to BMI 26 now. Type 2 diabetic (controlled by diet), blood group A+, 51 years old yesterday and just lost my job (hopefully temporarily). I think I'm bearing my part of the burden :-)

edit: forgot to mention my girlfriend is stuck 1200 miles away too!!
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Missed the bit about blood group, is A+ good or bad? As you’ve posted it and I’m A+ I probably know the answer....
 
Vic said:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model (13).pdf?dl=0

If I read it right, it's just a computer model. Probably not as reliable as testing 100 random asymptomatic people around the country but johnnytapia thinks that would tell us nothing, even if the tests showed that none of them has had it, or half of them had, because I didn't study statistics at school.
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it’s a non peer reviewed article / paper that seems to hold no water to me.

I mean if this has been doing the rounds in the UK since mid jan and had infected 50% why are we only now seeing a mortality spike from it? Same with every country?

also to infect 50% of the UK population would take 25 doublings in 10 weeks? Which would be approximately 2x the speed this thing is known to spread.
 
marco said:
like people have said lots of flu like symptoms and not quite normal if you get my drift and me included, just a possibility that no one has mentioned could there have been a less violent strain of this virus that was undetected then its mutated into the one we now know
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We've put it down to coincidence now and the only way we'd know is after testing. None of us have had any symptoms since but have been essentially locked down for a week now on the basis we've not been infected yet.
 
Chippy_boy said:
It would also mean that after we've had our lockdown and come out the other side, there would be much less chance of it flaring up again since most of us will have had it. Herd immunity back on the table again.

This would also explain why the numbers are not shooting up in Hubei even though they are getting back to normal.
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Bloody hell chippy - that’s a bit positive for you!! Let’s hope this is right. Hope you ok mate..
 
grunge said:
it’s a non peer reviewed article / paper that seems to hold no water to me.

I mean if this has been doing the rounds in the UK since mid jan and had infected 50% why are we only now seeing a mortality spike from it? Same with every country?

also to infect 50% of the UK population would take 25 doublings in 10 weeks? Which would be approximately 2x the speed this thing is known to spread.
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Maybe there has been a mortality spike but it has only just or is only just peaking so becoming huge news? And what if had been here since November? I know someone off here who had incredibly bad flu in November with massive lung problems. I am just trying to find some positive hope!

Just to add to this a cardiac doctor working in London told me today “millions have had it” so the 5000 ish figures are a nonsense.
 
My dad is 80

He went to Wilkos on Monday and is going to Sainsburys tomorrow.
He visited several shops today
The fucking daft bastard has only pulled out of an Easter break cos the guest house has closed for business

Honestly I'd like to ram his head against the television when they're showing seriously ill people

This applies to YOU too you gormless FUCKING ****
 
worsleyweb said:
Maybe there has been a mortality spike but it has only just or is only just peaking so becoming huge news? And what if had been here since November? I know someone off here who had incredibly bad flu in November with massive lung problems. I am just trying to find some positive hope!

Just to add to this a cardiac doctor working in London told me today “millions have had it”
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I had something in January which displayed all the symptoms and none of the non-symptoms. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, of course.
 
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