COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Chippy_boy said:
No it really isn't.

The rises in new cases is governed by many things, not least how many people did we test, and who and where and when.

The number of deaths is a really reliable stat with no scope for misinterpretation. We are all hoping, praying and expecting that a +62% daily rise is a blip. It must be a blip. Deaths have gone up 10x in 9 days. That's "only" a 29% daily rise. Still terrible.

We also pray the +29% per day over the last week or two, will slow off as the social distancing measures people themselves implemented before the government asked us to, will start to pay dividends.

If not, then in two weeks time, based on +29% per day we'll have 6,000+ people per day dying. I am expecting it to be much lower than that. Let's pray its much, much lower.
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It is because most countries are sticking to similar numbers of positive cases vs deaths at stages in the cycle. As the positive cases continue to grow day by day, you'd expect to see the deaths grow as well. As soon as the positive cases start to plateau, then you'd expect the deaths to then follow a couple of weeks later.

None of it can tell you for sure what will happen in two weeks as there's so many other factors at play compared to other countries, but the best indicator for what will happen with deaths is number of overall cases and what's happening with that number.
 
Fame Monster said:
Ok, well 99% of the rest of the world.

I understand the theory of herd immunity and the Gov't's reasoning for not trying to suppress the virus straight away and having millions of people attend sporting, musical and other events all across the country, I just think it's absolutely suicidal when they could have bought the country more time to prepare for this when there's a shortage of essential medical equipment.
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yep the Liverpool athletico Cheltenham and flight policy has been woeful, to be fair to the govt it was the WHO which said international travel was ok to continue which has to be the biggest shittest wankest advice ever given by any expert panel.
 
i8rags said:
Just been explaining on sky, that these are from the last few days whilst kin was contacted since the procedural changes. So probably best to add last three days and divide.
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Looking at the way we are doing it now we are a day behind now,i think so more we don't know about yet
 
Tricky_Trev said:
Yes, high blood pressure is the most common one among covid-19 deaths. I’m sure I saw that in some data around a week ago. But it was so overwhelmingly the most common that I doubt it will have changed in the last week. People sometimes think underlying health issues means their lungs or heart were in a bad way anyway, but in a lot of cases it just means high blood pressure or diabetes. As common as that.

High blood pressure, cancer, diabetes, lung/heart disease are the main things.
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What's not made clear, is high blood pressure up there cos generally more people will have it than a dodgy ticker or lungs so your not necessarily at more risk than a more serious illness. Also is that for people that didn't know they had high blood pressure, therefore not on medication for it. Its all very vague.
 
Sweden aren't doing herd immunity as a strategy. They are doing a very different approach though, but more based on they think they can cope with the numbers following the course they currently are (which does involve a fair amount of social distancing and closing of certain things)
 
Fame Monster said:
You already asked me to explain before.

I said the Gov't should have taken a different course of action, one that the rest of the world took, and one that the Gov't here have eventually taken after their initial strategy was exposed to be suicidal by Imperial College and borne out by deaths in other European nations and by deaths in this country now.
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But currently most other strategies also don’t appear to be working. The rest of the world didn’t take different courses. Every country has been different initially and Imperial College seem to have a different report out each day showing how difficult the whole decision making process is. From peaking in a June to peaking in a couple of weeks possibly suggests the strategy has worked. Of course with your knowledge and intellect you know best.
 
Chippy_boy said:
The number of deaths is a really reliable stat with no scope for misinterpretation.
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It's a fairly reliable stat assuming that everyone who dies is tested for covid 19. That's not what's happened in Italy. And let's not forget that it's still possible to die from good old-fashioned flu or pneumonia.
 
27 prisoners have contracted coronavirus

As of 1pm on Thursday, 27 prisoners have tested positive for coronavirus in 14 prisons, the Ministry of Justice has said.


Number of NHS volunteers passes 700,000 mark

Downing Street confirms 702,000 volunteers have already signed up to deliver food and medicines, and perform other supportive tasks, for the 1.4 million vulnerable people isolated at home.

The government target currently stands at 750,000 after the overwhelming public response saw the initial 250,000 target smashed in just 24 hours
 
Elbow beards said:
What's not made clear, is high blood pressure up there cos generally more people will have it than a dodgy ticker or lungs so your not necessarily at more risk than a more serious illness. Also is that for people that didn't know they had high blood pressure, therefore not on medication for it. Its all very vague.
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I've been wondering this too. I can imagine high blood pressure is one of the most common 'serious' underlying conditions in the UK. Can imagine many, many people don't have it under control either. My dad is at risk, but I feel a little reassured that he takes his medication seriously.
 
karen7 said:
27 prisoners have contracted coronavirus

As of 1pm on Thursday, 27 prisoners have tested positive for coronavirus in 14 prisons, the Ministry of Justice has said.


Number of NHS volunteers passes 700,000 mark

Downing Street confirms 702,000 volunteers have already signed up to deliver food and medicines, and perform other supportive tasks, for the 1.4 million vulnerable people isolated at home.

The government target currently stands at 750,000 after the overwhelming public response saw the initial 250,000 target smashed in just 24 hours
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some of those volunteers might end up as prison guards at this rate !!!!!
 
twosips said:
I've been wondering this too. I can imagine high blood pressure is one of the most common 'serious' underlying conditions in the UK. Can imagine many, many people don't have it under control either. My dad is at risk, but I feel a little reassured that he takes his medication seriously.
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Without any proof or medical knowledge at all, but I'd guess your more likely to die of it if you smoke than have high blood pressure. Never says on the news how many were smokers.
 
meltonblue said:
Sweden aren't doing herd immunity as a strategy. They are doing a very different approach though, but more based on they think they can cope with the numbers following the course they currently are (which does involve a fair amount of social distancing and closing of certain things)
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Brother lives there and they just banned gatherings over 50 and pub trips need to be pre-booked!
 
twosips said:
Cheers, cutting onions here.
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I'm on 12 weeks isolation got my letter and text at the beginning of the week, I'm lucky I have a garden and have been able to get out and do a bit, but for people living in flats or shelterd accommodation it's going to be difficult but worth it in the long run
 
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